cyclone "sidr" weakening??

Here i've some numeric forecast for the next 24hrs from WXMAPS suggest "sidr" is going to weaken.
Is this going to happen??? If yes then it's going to be a good news for the people of Orissa, Bengal & Bangladesh.


Another scenario here, the latest satellite pic indicates NO SIGN of letting down.

"sidr" on the move

It has moved north again...
Here is the latest tracking & prediction of it's movement.
It's a slow moving giant.
Watch out people in North-Orissa & South-West Bengal... it's coming.

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Cyclone "sidr"

Now it has been named "SIDR". A potentially dangerous one.
Tropical Cyclone Sidr seems to have strengthened markedly since the latest (as of this writing) advisory from the JTWC. At that time, highest winds were near 55 knots, or 100 kmh. But have a look at this satellite shot.
We now have an eye, which means that Sidr is almost certainly holds winds of hurricane speed, I believe. As I earlier related, the JTWC had already been forecasting a hurricane-strength storm, so this seems to have come to pass.

Whither from here? While earlier numerical forecasts leaned towards a northerly and northeasterly path of Sidr, Monday`s forecast tracks have shifted westward such that landfall seems to be favored for the northwestern shore of the Bay (Orissa or northern Andhra Pradesh states of eastern India). Timing will be after midweek, maybe Friday-Saturday. Waters of the Bay of Bengal, being near 29 degrees C, are plenty warm to sustain a storm of hurricane intensity for some time to come, so Sidr will need to be followed carefully.
Here we have latest Satellite pic from JTWC

and IMD tracking...

"D" Indeed moving west

Still it's a Depression and in making of a Cyclone, not yet!
Lying centered around south-central bay of bengal.
Still it has lots of chance to move North.
Let's hope it moves west, atleast we might get heavy rains from that system.
It's worth watching this system.
Meanwhile take a look at the latest satellite pic....

D moved a bit to WEST

Going by the latest INFRARED imagery ... the depression over the Bay has moved slightly to the west. Still it's predicted to move North-WEst.
The system is still a Depression and gaining in strength ... may be to a Tropical Cyclone.
We have'nt seen a "Super Cyclone" for the past 3 years.


In Chennai it's quiet DRY, It's unusual for the MID northeast season. The heavy moistured North-East current is OFFLINE. Will it rejunuvate?

Going to be DRY

Here take a look at the percipitation forecast for the coming mid-week... looks very sad for this time of year.
Going to be a BAD Monsoon.
Chennai should get 350MM of rainfall for the month of November, but as of now we have got only 33.6MM... boo that's only 10%.

'D' Moving North and Getting dry here

Today morning it was clear!
Then some thin clouds... Absolutely no sign of RAIN, this is bad for the Chennai people.
"No rain during this season" meaning... drinking water problem will come to chennai before April.
Already i can see the water table is going down, normally during this time of year the water table will be at the maximum.

In my next blog i'll try and get the details of current levels in water supply lakes around Chennai.

Now coming to the depression over Bay...pls take a look at the latest satellite pic.

Moving North? May be...

Here is some numeric forecast for coming days regarding the movement of tropical depression over the south bay...
This is for 14-Nov-2007

Latest on the Depression

We are tracking a depression system which is lying on the south-east bay.
As one of my reader suggested that, "the system might move in a North-North-west direction and eventually will hit orissa OR west bengal".
But i contradict that becoz we had lots of bay low pressures during the past Southwest monsoon season. My prediction is it will move in a west direction.
Only one possibility is there for moving in a nort-north-west, its because "Southwest air current is still online"... i don't know the reason. If we get the reason we'll publish it.
Here's the latest satellite...
You can see the whirl is getting stronger.