After that depression, what next?

Chennai recorded 12cm of rain in past 24 hrs, which is good.
So the numerical forecast for 27 & 28th october was correct.
Here is another numeric forecast for 31st october thru 1st november.... signs of another BAY LOW... Lets see

Proved wrong

Just go thru the REPORT & FORECAST published in IMD website (below), and this report would have been published in all local newspapers and even announced in RADIO & TV. Based on these report the Tamilnadu Govenment has announce FULL holiday for schools & colleges on 29-Oct-2007.

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
REGIONAL METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE, 6, COLLEGE ROAD, CHENNAI - 600 006.
REGIONAL DAILY WEATHER REPORT FOR TAMILNADU, PUDUCHERRY, ANDHRAPRADESH, KARNATAKA, KERALA AND LAKSHADWEEP

SUNDAY, 28TH OCTOBER 2007 / 6TH KARTIKA 1929 (SAKA)

SUMMARY OF OBSERVATIONS RECORDED AT 0830 HRS IST:
Yesterday's low pressure area over Southeast and adjoining Southwest Bay concentrated into a depression and lies centered at 28/0830 IST over Southwest Bay at about 480 kilometres Southeast of Chennai. It is likely to intensify further and move in a West-Northwesterly direction and cross the coast between Puducherry and Kavali by tomorrow evening the 29th October 2007.

North East monsoon has been active over Tamilnadu and Kerala.

But what happened is.... The DEPRESSION crossed tamilnadu coast YESTERDAY (28-Oct-2007) itself, not on the date anounced by IMD (29-Oct-2007, Evening).
We know the reason for this sudden generation of depression and quick crossing into land is due to the tropical cyclone development over the Arabian Sea.

Lots more to come.

Another day to remember

Non-stop light-medium-heavy rain thru the day.

For past 24hrs rain record stands 101.8 MM at 7:09 PM

Previously a day to remember was 27-Oct-2005, 423 MM.

Rain still continues as i write... lets see when it stops..
Take a look at latest Satellite image and Forecast (generated on 27-oct-2007)

Latest Infrared INSAT pic

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/images/xxirmet5n.GIF

Brightest spots will have good rain.

Latest Lightning events

Joint typhoon warning center

Have a look at "Joint Typhoon Warning Center" maintained by US Navy.
Lots of info
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

and

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

At last a Depression

Yes, at last. There is a tropical depression over the mid-southern Arabian Sea. The JTWC have raised an alert to the potential for a tropical cyclone.

The GFS numerical forecast has a strong low (likely a cyclone) nearing the eastern shore of Yemen on the 1st and 2nd of November. This after a brush with Socotra, east of northern Somalia.

While the story remains rather the same (inconsistency in numerical forecasts=low confidence in their solutions), we are now closer to having a tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, a low is now east of southern India. This low is forecast to deepen a little before drifting ashore in SE India. Such behavior would bring heavy falls of rain, perhaps to Chennai, which is far behind schedule in getting its fall (North East Monsoon) rains.

The idea of a cyclone aiming for the northern west coast (Gujarat) of India has been dropped by the newest forecasts. Should not be any surprise

Continuing rain

Here is the latest INSAT


From yesterday (27-oct-2007) afternoon... the rain was intermitent and Now (28-oct-2007,Sunday) it's raining non-stop.

Rain intensity is drizzle to medium, but non-stop.

As of now past 24 hrs rain in Chennai (28-Oct-2007, 12:34PM) is 65.6mm

Latest from IMD 27-Oct-2007

Northeast monsoon has been active over Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep, at many places over Tamilnadu, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Coastal Andhrapradesh. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Coastal Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.

The following stations recorded very heavy to heavy rainfall in centimetres

Jayamkondam (Perambalur dt) 13, Cuddalore, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt), Parangipettai, Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt) and Ketti (Nilgiris dt) 11 each, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt) 10, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Gudur and Venkatagiri Town (both Nellore dt) 9 each, Rapur (Nellore dt), Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) and Ariyalur 8 each and Karaikal, Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt), Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt), Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt), Coonoor, Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Kavali and Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt) 7 each

IMD report 26-Oct-2007

North East monsoon has been Vigorous over South Coastal Andhrapradesh and active over Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep, at many places over Tamilnadu, South Coastal Andhrapradesh and Rayalaseema and at a few places over Coastal and South interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala. Mainly dry weather prevailed over North interior Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over North Coastal Andhrapradesh and Telengana.

The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in centimetres.

Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) 10, Rapur (Nellore dt) 8 and Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt) and Omalur (Salem dt) 7 each.

Chennai AP: 2cm