Latest Infrared INSAT pic

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/indian/images/xxirmet5n.GIF

Brightest spots will have good rain.

Latest Lightning events

Joint typhoon warning center

Have a look at "Joint Typhoon Warning Center" maintained by US Navy.
Lots of info
https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc.php

and

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

At last a Depression

Yes, at last. There is a tropical depression over the mid-southern Arabian Sea. The JTWC have raised an alert to the potential for a tropical cyclone.

The GFS numerical forecast has a strong low (likely a cyclone) nearing the eastern shore of Yemen on the 1st and 2nd of November. This after a brush with Socotra, east of northern Somalia.

While the story remains rather the same (inconsistency in numerical forecasts=low confidence in their solutions), we are now closer to having a tropical cyclone.

Meanwhile, a low is now east of southern India. This low is forecast to deepen a little before drifting ashore in SE India. Such behavior would bring heavy falls of rain, perhaps to Chennai, which is far behind schedule in getting its fall (North East Monsoon) rains.

The idea of a cyclone aiming for the northern west coast (Gujarat) of India has been dropped by the newest forecasts. Should not be any surprise

Continuing rain

Here is the latest INSAT


From yesterday (27-oct-2007) afternoon... the rain was intermitent and Now (28-oct-2007,Sunday) it's raining non-stop.

Rain intensity is drizzle to medium, but non-stop.

As of now past 24 hrs rain in Chennai (28-Oct-2007, 12:34PM) is 65.6mm

Latest from IMD 27-Oct-2007

Northeast monsoon has been active over Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep, at many places over Tamilnadu, Rayalaseema, Kerala and South Interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Coastal Andhrapradesh. Mainly dry weather prevailed over Coastal Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over Telangana and North Interior Karnataka.

The following stations recorded very heavy to heavy rainfall in centimetres

Jayamkondam (Perambalur dt) 13, Cuddalore, Chidambaram (Cuddalore dt), Parangipettai, Kodavasal (Tiruvarur dt) and Ketti (Nilgiris dt) 11 each, Mayiladuthurai (Nagapattinam dt) 10, Kattumannarkoil (Cuddalore dt), Nannilam (Tiruvarur dt), Gudur and Venkatagiri Town (both Nellore dt) 9 each, Rapur (Nellore dt), Tiruvidaimaruthur (Thanjavur dt) and Ariyalur 8 each and Karaikal, Srimushnam (Cuddalore dt), Needamangalam (Tiruvarur dt), Orathanadu (Thanjavur dt), Coonoor, Kothagiri (Nilgiris dt), Kavali and Perinthalamanna (Malapuram dt) 7 each

IMD report 26-Oct-2007

North East monsoon has been Vigorous over South Coastal Andhrapradesh and active over Tamilnadu and Rayalaseema.

Rainfall occurred at most places over Lakshadweep, at many places over Tamilnadu, South Coastal Andhrapradesh and Rayalaseema and at a few places over Coastal and South interior Karnataka. Isolated rainfall occurred over Kerala. Mainly dry weather prevailed over North interior Karnataka and dry weather prevailed over North Coastal Andhrapradesh and Telengana.

The following stations recorded heavy rainfall in centimetres.

Venkatagiri Town (Nellore dt) 10, Rapur (Nellore dt) 8 and Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt) and Omalur (Salem dt) 7 each.

Chennai AP: 2cm

Weather maps for next few days

Today we are having good showers from morning... North-east at its best.
It's likely the rain strength might pick up in days to come.
I'm waiting for a Depression or a Cyclone to form from Bay... in next 3 days.

Wait and see

Long wait for a Depression from Bay

Not much different from this time Wednesday. Fewer thunderstorms over land. Map analysis does show a low west of Lakshadweep (Arabian Sea), but no other pressure center is obvious. High cloud patterns hint at the high that is present, aloft, across the middle of India.

The Arabian Sea low is forecast (by numerical forecasts) to tighten and deepen towards the west, ultimately (5-7 days) nearing Socotra, the island off the `horn` of Somalia. It could become a tropical cyclone. The hitch? This solution differs from Wednesday`s; in other words, there is still uncertainty.

As with a western low, Thursday`s numerical forecasts also show an eastern low, as they have for the better part of a week. As with the western low, a Bay of Bengal low (tropical cyclone?) is forecast on a slower schedule than has earlier been indicated. But the location is consistent: east of South East India. To follow the GFS numerical forecast, see the COLA Website.

By the way, the latest (1200 hours GMT) run of the GFS has a strong tropical cyclone west of India recurving towards western Gujurat. It even shows heavy rain into Sindh, Pakistan. This would be towards the end of the first week in November. Anyways, I am not sure it is worth the time spent looking at it (seconds?).

Chennai to Coimbatore

Yesterday i was travelling from Chennai to Coimbatore (497KM) by train.
Started At 6:16AM from chennai central
It was clear and sunny when i started Now the rain bearing cloud cover is getting heavier...
Around 8:04AM reached Katpadi,
After that i had 2 masaal dosai and i vadai for Rs.28.00
Water everywhere due to overnite rains....
Thru the journey there were some heavy and light showers.. upto Salem.
After that dry thru to Coimbatore.

Full day in COimbatore...there was no rain.