JTWC - projected path
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Why "Laila" will trace the JTWC 's projected path??
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Upto Tamilnadu coast the upper wind is from East to West.
Just above the land, the upper wind pattern is from S-W to North-East.
This will steer the "Laila" away from Land after coming very close to Land.
Anything can happen.
IMD warning
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BOB 01/2010/04 Dated: 18.05.2010
Time of issue: 0730 hours IST
Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA ‘ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert.
The deep depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas moved westwards, intensified
into a Cyclonic Storm ‘ LAILA’ and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today,the 18 th May 2010 over southeast and
adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near Latitude 11.50N and 86.50E, about 700 km east-southeast of
Chennai, 800 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1300 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the
system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards Andhra Pradesh coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track
and intensity of the system are given in the Table below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
18-05-2010/0530 | 11.5/86.5 | 65-75 gusting to 85 |
18-05-2010/1130 | 11.5/86.0 | 65-75 gusting to 85 |
18-05-2010/1730 | 12.0/85.5 | 75-85gusting to 95 |
18-05-2010/2330 | 12.5/85.0 | 75-85gusting to 95 |
19-05-2010/0530 | 13.0/84.5 | 85-95 gusting to 105 |
19-05-2010/1730 | 14.0/83.5 | 85-95 gusting to 105 |
20-05-2010/0530 | 15.0/82.5 | 95-105 gusting to 115 |
20-05-2010/1730 | 16.0/82.0 | 95-105 gusting to 115 |
21-05-2010/0530 | 17.0/81.0 | 75-85gusting to 95 |
Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, are likely to
experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from 19th May 2010. Gale force wind
with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today,the
18th night.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today the 18th night.
Fishermen are advised not venture into the open sea.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today,the 18th May 2010.
Satellite shot at 11 am IST
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