Sunday, November 29, 2009

BBC forecast model suggests showers for North TN coast from Monday evening till Thursday morning.
Upto 29.11.2009 TN has received 10% above NORMAL rainfall for this Monsoon season... http://is.gd/56Mq3
A must read reader comment on our web www.indianweatherman.com ... http://is.gd/56Mq3

comments and comments .. getting Hot

Dear SSET,
Have you ever compared this year TN rainfall with TN NEM normal rainfall. For your information upto 29.11.2009 TN has received 10% above NORMAL rainfall for this NEM season. That too the rainfall is wide spread baring few NW interior districts.
EL NINO Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is one of tele- connections our NEM is having. Some times it is very prominent; some time its in significant. There is no reduction in the number of rainy days for TN. But upper air at 925 hPa to 850 hPa level is relatively warmer in most part of the year.This anomaly is to be studied.
Further I will let you know in appropriate time when bad weather related to this phenomenon is occurring.


---------- More about coming up showers --------------
NE winds brought rain in many parts of Tiruvarur district and selected coastal locations in Nagai, Ramanad, and Pudukottai districts. [29.11.2009/0830 hrs IST].
Now NE winds of the order 10 to 15 knots are blowing from NE direction from surface to 850 hPa. This may bring smaller showers to day in Puducherry, coastal Villupuram and Kanchipuram districts. However the High pressure hovered over central India at 850 hPa is prohibiting clouds developments
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In fact GFS is now predicting heavy widespread showers from Monday, 30-Nov-09, evening .. http://yfrog.com/3g5iyp
Chennai - From afternoon its cloudy and only bad thing which is stopping rains are that cloud movement and wind is from North-west
As expected the Bay is getting active for fresh burst of showers along central and north TN coast from Monday .. http://yfrog.com/4i13wj
Chennai - Bay just south-east of Chennai is active with good cloud formation.. http://yfrog.com/4g3clj
Reports of Overnight Heavy showers for Thiruvarur and Nagapatinum zones .. http://yfrog.com/3nbdfg

Chennai, New Delhi and Mangalore

Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

In Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India the average temperature is 28.63C (83.525F). 20.00C (68.00F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 38.00C (100.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 8.50C (47.30F). Wet weather in Chennai, Tamil Nadu accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 1217.00mm (47.91in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 101.42mm (3.99in). November is the month with most precipitation when 309mm (12.17in) of rain falls over a period of 11 days while in February only 7mm (0.28in) of rain falls over 1 days. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 91 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Chennai, Tamil Nadu averages 71.08333333% over the year. 59% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in June and 80% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in November. Chennai, Tamil Nadu's weather is effected by 2716 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.44 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 4.8 per day in July to 9.8 per day in March. Furnish yourself with comprehensive information regarding the Chennai average temperature on the excellent linked to website. Details of the average high and low temperature for each month are available there.

New Delhi, India

In New Delhi, India the average temperature is 25.25C (77.45F). 7.00C (44.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January) while 41.00C (105.80F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in May. The average temperature range is therefore 20.50C (68.90F). Wet weather in New Delhi accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 715.00mm (28.15in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 59.58mm (2.35in). July is the month with most precipitation when 211mm (8.31in) of rain falls over a period of 14 days while in November only 1mm (0.04in) of rain falls over 1 days. New Delhi's weather is effected by 57 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at New Delhi averages 49.16666667% over the year. 25% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in April, May and 73% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in August. New Delhi's weather is effected by 2856 hours of sunshine per year which is an average of 7.82 hours per day. The range of sunlight hours is from an average of 5.6 per day in July to 9.5 per day in November. There is further information about the temperature in New Delhi on the excellent linked to website. They offer a detailed New Delhi climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.

Mangalore, Karnataka, India

In Mangalore, Karnataka, India the average temperature is 27.08C (80.75F). 22.00C (71.60F) is the lowest monthly average low temperature (occurring in January & December) while 33.00C (91.40F) is the highest monthly average high temperature which occurs in April, May. The average temperature range is therefore 3.00C (37.40F). Wet weather in Mangalore, Karnataka accumulates so that there is a total average rainfall of 3479.00mm (136.97in) per annum. Divided over the year this gives an average monthly rainfall of 289.92mm (11.41in). July is the month with most precipitation when 1059mm (41.69in) of rain falls over a period of 30 days while in February only 2mm (0.08in) of rain falls over 0 days. Mangalore, Karnataka's weather is effected by 136 days per year with greater than 0.1mm (0.004in) of rainfall. Relative humidity at Mangalore, Karnataka averages 75.33333333% over the year. 62% is the lowest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in January and 89% is the highest average monthly relative humidity which occurs in July. There is further information about the Mangalore, Karnataka climate at the world climate and temperature website. They offer a detailed Mangalore, Karnataka climate graph that webmasters can add to their webpages.

Some Reader comments...

Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "COLA-GFS model still holds to the WET december 1st...":

One among the veterans of COLA site is an INDIAN who, sometime back worked for INDIA [IMD]. IITM site like MOL will give more informative and useful data. Models made a digital divide among [young / old] meteorologists and Numerical Weather Predication [NWP]is going to rule future.Youngs have digital capacity where as the olds are of experience. There should be a proper mix.
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sset has left a new comment on your post "Informative Sweet little reader comments":

No we are not blaming Tamil Nadu. ElNino is not bringing vigorous NE monsoon. Why is it so? Generally it is observed that south india is becoming more and more dry with less rainy days. Take example of Bangalore it is extremely hot and temperature touches 39-40 degrees in summer, we don't see any rains here. But places like Maharashtra, Gujarat are receiving extremely good rains (5-6 months) of rain.
Western Disturbance ?? ... http://is.gd/56su1

Western Disturbance ??

The western disturbance represents a trough of lower pressure (marked by anti-clockwise winds, ascending motion of air, presence of moisture and clouds) that warms up the atmosphere. This can help reverse the cold conditions at a given point of time.
Colder conditions set to continue in North, central parts .. http://is.gd/56sgw

Colder conditions set to continue in North, central parts

Mercury is seeking new lows in North India as cold north-westerlies continued to blow across the international border on Friday.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the cold to increasingly colder conditions are set to prevail over north, northwest and parts of central India until November 30.

ANTI-CYCLONIC PUSH

A seasonal anti-cyclone (high-pressure area marked by clockwise winds, sinking air motion and clear skies) sitting smack over central India in the higher levels of atmosphere has been boosting the flow of westerlies to northwesterlies.

This anti-cyclone is seen lying extended to the east over Southeast Asia and China as well as into the Far-east over the Pacific facilitating the northern hemisphere winter.

What would expectedly reverse, if ever slightly, is the arrival of a western disturbance over northwest India by November, a remainder circulation from a large weather system that dropped heavy rains over West Asia on Thursday.

The western disturbance represents a trough of lower pressure (marked by anti-clockwise winds, ascending motion of air, presence of moisture and clouds) that warms up the atmosphere. This can help reverse the cold conditions at a given point of time.

Western disturbances often feature induced cyclonic circulations as they drift into northwest India and are known to help whip up additional moisture from the Arabian Sea to rain down over the hills and plains.

The IMD update on Friday said that maximum temperatures were above normal over parts of peninsular India, Madhya Pradesh and below normal over parts of Punjab and Bihar.

Minimum temperatures were below normal over many parts of east India, Jammu and Kashmir and Punjab. They were above normal over remaining parts of the country except over extreme south peninsular India where they are near normal.

SLIGHT FALL

No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next five days except a slight fall on Saturday and slight rise from Monday coinciding with the arrival of the western disturbance.

Meanwhile, towards the south, Thursday's cyclonic circulation over southeast Bay of Bengal persisted and is likely to move slowly west-northwestwards (towards Sri Lanka-India coasts). The weak northeast monsoon conditions are likely to continue over south peninsular India during the next three days as well.

But things may begin to look different from Monday with the west-northwestward-bound cyclonic circulation expected to impact coastal Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka.

According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the wet session marked by mainly widely separated rain or thundershowers may hold until December 4.

Its outlook for the December 5 to 13 too shows a calibrated rise in activity over the peninsular seas with a flare-up indicated close to the Tamil Nadu coast.
Chennai - From Monday mid-day things will change.. low cloud formation and wind direction will change along with rise in humidity.
Chennai - cold morning.. 23.6°C (5:44am) , now 11:02am still cloudy with high clouds and wind from North-west.
Expected 1st week showers to last for 3 days, showers will be intermittent mild and medium due to the MJO effect .. http://yfrog.com/4geqap
Predicted showers for 1st week already seen reaching central TN coast .. http://ping.fm/7F67u