JTWC:
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180900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 84.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 285 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION AROUND TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FROM NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST- NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RECURVE NORTH TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR REORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY UP TO TAU 48 BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF INDIA, CROSSING INTO BANGLADESH AS A WEAK 35-KNOT TC BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
JTWC projected path:
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Satellite shot at 12:30pm IST
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Compare the sat. shot at 10:30am IST in our update # 4
Now it has become bigger and even close to land.
IMD warning:
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BOB 01/2010/05 Dated: 18.05.2010
Time of issue: 1045 hours IST
Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal :
Cyclone Alert.
The cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010 over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 12.00N and 85.50E, about 570 km east-southeast of Chennai, 690 km southeast of Visakhapatnam and 1250 km south-southwest of Kolkata.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction for some more time and then move in anorthwesterly to northerly direction during next 72 hours towards Andhra Pradesh coast close to Machhalipatinam.
Under the influence of this system, coastal areas of north Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh are likely to experience fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls from today, the 18th May 2010 evening/night. Gale force wind with speed reaching 65-75 kmph likely to commence along and off Andhra Pradesh coast from today, the 18th night. It may increase subsequently as the system moves closer to coast. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast from today night.
Sea condition will be high to very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.
The system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. are being informed accordingly.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 18th May 2010.
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