Thursday, July 12, 2012

The Monsoon Axis has shifted to the Himalayan Foothills. For the regions South of the axis, it means a weak Monsoon Condition. Weak conditions for the interior Peninsula and the west coast, and eastern coastal regions.
Rain fall will decrease substantially in the regions South of the Punjab/Haryana/Delhi/UP W Bengal line.
It also translates to a very heavy rainfall to the Sikkim and NE States, hampering relief work. Punjab regions too get heavy rains on Friday.

Outlook For Mon 16th/Tues 17th/Wed 18th:
An UAC is likely to move into Orissa on Sunday, and move NW thru the Orissa/East Vid/Chattisgarh region on Monday, 16th. Seeing the situation, the monsoon axis may slide down South (upto Rajasthan) again by mid next week. West Coast trough possibly gains from Tuesday 17th.

Meanwhile, the MJO seems to be "holding" till the 22nd July at least. Could expect a Vortex off Mah.coast around Wednesday. A low off the Orissa coast could be expected in the Bay late next week.
Shall monitor and keep posting.

In Pakistan, the Monsoon will bring Precipitation in the North. Lahore heavy rain on Friday evening night. Karachi will have a cloudy weekend with light drizzles in some parts. Monsoon has moved into the region (See Current Page Map). Strong SW winds likely next 2 days.
Very strong SW dust raising winds are likely in Southern Sindh on the weekend.
 See Vagaries for weekend city Forecast...

Chennai - 10:45pm, t.shower approaching from s-w is still live. At 50km s-w from city.

#chennai - 10:21pm, T.showers over W,N-W are showing signs of dying. T.cell over S-W is still LIVE.
#chennai - for the 4th night today.. a T.shower is approaching city from West, S-W .. at 9:40pm raining over Kanchipuram, 65km S-W from city
RT @chirag_roshan: @weatherofindia currently Heavily raining in mehsana north gujarat (6:24pm)

RT @chirag_roshan: @weatherofindia >> mehsana north gujarat (6:30pm)

RT @chirag_roshan: @weatherofindia >> mehsana north gujarat (6:31pm)
Rain till 8:30am of 11-Jul, Kalavai (dist Vellore) 10, (dist Tiruvallur) 8, Arakonam (dist Vellore) 8 cm... very heavy rains !!
3:30pm, Rain over #Delhi ,Haryana, N.N-E Rajasthan, Heavy widespread rains have already started over Entire E.India..

High Vertical.V is expected to be HIGH again over N.Tamilnadu, #chennai and S,central.Andhra ... >> T.showers after 6pm

#chennai - got Good T.showers from 2am till 6:30am today... and more expected after 7pm.

#chennai - Good sea breeze now 4:40pm from E-S-E upto a height of 0.3km above sea level.

Today early hours #chennai got 3cm of Rain.

4:30pm, T.showers seen over N.Tamilnadu .. N-E of Salem.
Next 24hrs, scattered showers to continue along Maharastra coast & Karnataka coast..

Today, vertical.V is high over N,Central,E.Rajasthan, Haryana & into Uttarakand  Heavy rains possible for another 36hrs.

Showers expected to clear over Rajasthan from tomorrow night and Less showers forecast for entire S-W coast from tomorrow till 16-Jul

Showers over North India to continue till 15-Jul and clear after that.

The wet conditions is expected to shift into E.India, S-E coast and entire N-E states from 14-Jul..

Very heavy & widespread rains coming up for North N-E states from 14-jul till 18-Jul... Floods to worsen for #Assam .. 
Offshore trough persists but weak today.. and expected to stay that way till 15-Jul..

Today, medium level circulation is over #Delhi , Haryana , N-E.Rajasthan ...

A medium & Upper level circulation can be seen over N,N-E Arabian sea & S-central Bay...

From 14-Jul, Monsoon winds is expected to pick strength along W,S-W Gujarat and into S,central Pakistan...

Today's circulation over #delhi , S.Haryana is expected to move N-E and vanish over Uttarakand in another 24hrs..

The medium level circulation over N-E Arabian sea will drift North and vanish over S-W Gujarat coast on 14-Jul.

A fresh medium level circulation is expected to pop over N.Bihar on 15-Jul..

Today's S-central Bay UAC is expected to persist till 15-Jul and expected to die there... 

RT @qinnairen: Raining in Delhi NCR. Clouds presence could spell more rains in the evening. Traffic jams could be an issue. 2pm

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 1.45pm, Cloudy sky & Sun tries to come out, also hot & humid. Heavy rain yesterday evening & night.

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Heavy rains lash Delhi. 1:40pm

MJO "holding on" till 22nd July...But See the West coast trough slackening...Re-organising from Monday 16th...Earliest Development I see is a probable vortex off Mah coast on Wed 18th...and maybe a low from the Bay on 21st...some more details tonight @ 10.30pm IST on Vagaries and Indian Weatherman.

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Raining in Delhi. Moderate showers.  11:03am

RT @qinnairen: All set to rain. #Delhi @weatherofindia 9:56am

RT @qinnairen: It just rained 30mins back. Still partly cloudy. Chillness takes over from blistering heat. #Delhi @weatherofindia 6:46am

RT @gravikumar: it has been raining from mid night in Adyar zone,  #Chennai. It's a constant drizzle for past 1 hr. 6am

Chennai - 3:53am, raining now Polichalur zone. A t.shower after a long time!