The Monsoon Axis has shifted to the Himalayan Foothills. For the regions South of the axis, it means a weak Monsoon Condition. Weak conditions for the interior Peninsula and the west coast, and eastern coastal regions.
Rain fall will decrease substantially in the regions South of the Punjab/Haryana/Delhi/UP W Bengal line.
It also translates to a very heavy rainfall to the Sikkim and NE States, hampering relief work. Punjab regions too get heavy rains on Friday.
Outlook For Mon 16th/Tues 17th/Wed 18th:
An UAC is likely to move into Orissa on Sunday, and move NW thru the Orissa/East Vid/Chattisgarh region on Monday, 16th. Seeing the situation, the monsoon axis may slide down South (upto Rajasthan) again by mid next week. West Coast trough possibly gains from Tuesday 17th.
Meanwhile, the MJO seems to be "holding" till the 22nd July at least. Could expect a Vortex off Mah.coast around Wednesday. A low off the Orissa coast could be expected in the Bay late next week.
Shall monitor and keep posting.
In Pakistan, the Monsoon will bring Precipitation in the North. Lahore heavy rain on Friday evening night. Karachi will have a cloudy weekend with light drizzles in some parts. Monsoon has moved into the region (See Current Page Map). Strong SW winds likely next 2 days.
Very strong SW dust raising winds are likely in Southern Sindh on the weekend.
See Vagaries for weekend city Forecast...