Tuesday, May 28, 2013

BB-2 is stationary at 20.3N and 89.6E. Core pressure estimated at 998 mb and winds at 25 knts..already a well marked low, as mentioned yesterday, deepening further and could cross as a depression.Major clouding in West and SW quadrant while crossing. Intermittent rains for Kolkata on Wednesday and Thursday.

As BB-2 crosses, the LWD goes inland into the peninsula region, and the rainfall shifts to the interiors.
Chennai could get some relief from the sea breeze as the Easterlies would get stronger from Friday 31st.

3. Northern India, NWI and Pakistan remain dry next 3 days. But we see a rise of 2/3c in the Northern plains and NWI from Friday onwards.
Rise in day temperatures in Balochistan and Sindh from Thursday, possibly reaching 49/50c again.

More on vagaries

T.showers over S,S-central Peninsula and update on "94B"

7:30pm, T.showers seen over N,N-central,N-E.Tamilnadu, N,central Kerala, S,N-W,N.Karnataka, central Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/2dGEL 

7:30pm, T.showers also seen over S-W, N.Maharastra, S-W.Madhyapradesh, S.Chatisgarh,  N,N-E.Odisha and N-E states ... http://ow.ly/i/2dGEL
RT @jayaprakashpv: Border of #palakkad, #malappuram & #thrissur 8:25pm just finished a medium #rain.. Lightning & cloudy sky #kerala 

"Heavy thunderstorm today in Belgaum with continuous 2 hr..during afternoon.." From our Facebook page ... http://ow.ly/lsWAZ 

RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 8.20 pm, Partially cloudy skies, heavy wind, chillness in the air.. Evening skies a pic http://t.co/8dZvkGgyZI 

"94 B" has intensified slightly. Winds now reaching upto 45 kmph along S.Bengal, Bangladesh coast. Will start to move inland in next 18hrs !

@isaakshi >> #Mumbai - 1 or 2 showers expected before 4-Jun.. more rain expected after that !
6:20pm, Heavy Rain seen along 25 / 30km S-W from #Chennai city.. now it is over Poonamalle and Sriperumpudur zones.

6:15pm, Lots of T.showers has lined up over N,N-E.Tamilnadu and into S.Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/2dDCp 

:: UPDATE ::
#Chennai - 6:40pm, #Rain now over Meenambakkam to Guindy road!

RT @divakarchennai: @weatherofindia #Chennai Raining @ Pallilaranai & ECR.Heavy wind & lightning too. (7:17pm)
#HOT cities of #India on 27-May, Allahabad­ 45.5 C, Hamirpur (UP) & Banda 45.2 C, Khajuraho­ 45.0 C

#HOT at 2:15pm, Nagpur = 44 C, #Delhi = 42 C, Amristar, Jaipur, Varanasi = 40 C, Ahmedabad, Thiruchirapalli = 39 C.

#Kolkata - 2:20pm, airport has reported "Light rain" with temperature around 29 C.

#Chennai - 2:10pm, temperature around 36 C, Good sea breeze seen from E-S-E.

@vigneshmohan >> #Chennai - Models indicate a good chance of T.shower towards late evening !! It may be restricted over S-W,W suburbs alone!

Monsoon update - 28-May-2013

Up to today morning, the South West Monsoon over Bay is progressing very well.
The LOW "95A" near Oman coast is slightly hindering the Somali jet flow towards the Kerala coast.
Today, the Somali low level jet is very active and pushing N-N-E into central Arabian sea.
As per the latest model analysis, the strong monsoon current is expected to reach Kerala coast on evening of 1-Jun-2013.

Today, 1:30pm, Showers seen all along Kerala, Karnataka coast, Goa. Most of the showers have not pushed into land.

The low intensity showers along Kerala and Karnataka coast is expected to persist till 31-May.
Today's COLA model also predicts the Monsoon to reach Kerala coast with Very heavy rains on evening  / night of 1-Jun-2013.

Update on LOW - "95A" and "94B"

"95A" - Along Central Oman coast in Arabian sea
11:30am IST, Satellite visible shot shows good T.showers have pushed into central Oman coast.

Latest IMD - GFS predicts that the system along Oman coast is expected to persist for another 4 days, almost in that same position. This is amazing, for a circulation to persist in that same zone for a long period of time.
The system is expected to intensify on 31-May, and it may push fully into Oman on 3-Jun.

If this system intensifies, the Monsoon current reaching Kerala coast may get weakened (or) may not reach as well on 3-Jun.

"94B" - Over N.Bay, just south of Bangladesh coast.
12pm IST, Satellite visible shows heavy convective activity over most of N.Bay, pushing into S.Bangladesh.
Latest analysis show that "94B" is a marked LOW pressure system with strong circulation extending from low levels to upper levels.
Pressure is around 1000mb, according to Thailand met.
The "94B" is expected to push N-N-W into S.Bengal in next 24hrs.
By 30-May, the system is expected to push upto Bihar and vanish.

In next 24hrs and till 1-Jun, Heavy and Very heavy rain expected for S,central Bengal, N,N-E.Odisha, S.Bangladesh and over most places in N-E states of India.
In following days 30,31-May, the heavy rain will push into Jharkand and Bihar as well.