Tuesday, November 26, 2013

LEHAR - maintains its intensity and reached 13N. Central Andhra coast landfall !

Analysis of Cyclone Lehar at 7:30pm, it has maintained its intensity ALL thru the day and moved W-N-W.
Now, pressure is same around 986 mb.
At present the Cyclone is interacting with DRY winds from N,N-W India.
During next 24hrs, it'll move into slightly colder waters. 
The system may not further intensify during the next 24hrs.
Present location is plotted here ... it has reached Central Bay parallel to #Chennai.

Latest track forecast by various weather models suggest a central Andhra coast by morning / noon of Thursday, 28-Nov-2013.

There are 2 anti-cyclones which is and "may" guide the system in next 24 to 36hrs.
A low, mid level anti-cyclone is expected to drift into N-E Bay from Myanmar.
The present upper level anti-cyclone over N-E Andhra and along S-E coast is expected to move N-E in 24hrs, these 2 systems will make sure the Cyclone moves in a W-N-W direction till tomorrow evening.

5pm, T showers has popped ALL along W-ghats from N-W Maharastra to S tip Tamilnadu... this is the 2nd consecutive day http://ow.ly/i/3Q6Sx

Belgaum - 5pm, Got drizzles 

Davangere - 5:51pm, "After yesterday evening's heavy rain, today as well it's raining"

RT @sanjeevnaique: @weatherofindia #Margao in Goa - 6.30pm slight drizzle. 
Posted @ 6 pm IST: a Brief Note>>

Sub Tropical Ridge Western End shows a slight shifting towards the Indian Coast ( i.e.Shifting West). This would enable Lehar to maintain a NW track for the next 24/36 hrs.

The Very Severe Cyclone has maintained its strength at T4.0 since 07 PM IST till 17.30 pm IST..and winds estimated at 65 knts. Pressure estimate 985 mbar.

Currently the core centre, located at 12.9N and 89E, is moving along the Southern Periphery of the Ridge. 
A Sat Image showing the central core and upper winds has been shown here to gauge the Ridge as well as the fluctuating central core.

Lehar will now encounter drier air as it tracks towards the NW. The drier air is encircling the cyclone from the North-West and SW.

From vagaries

Cyclone LEHAR - GFS Surprise for #Chennai !

Latest GFS run at 11:30am suggests that Cyclone LEHAR is expected to track W, W-N-W and make landfall North of #Chennai near Nellore on Thursday !!
4pm, Cyclone LEHAR, has drifted W-N-W during past 6 hrs... Pressure around 985mb and Winds reaching upto 120 kmph.

RT @rajugana: 10.15am, Clear sky, Bright Sunshine; pleasant morning after overnight rains...Pic @ varthur lake.. http://t.co/tRDTsbAk4o

#Chennai - 2:20pm,  a WARM day with mild DRY breeze from North. NO rain expected for another 24hrs.

LEHAR - 10am, Moved W-N-W and Intensified

Analysis of Cyclone LEHAR at 10am shows that the system has slowly moved W-N-W and intensified slightly during past 12hrs.
Now the core pressure is around 985 mb and winds gusting to 120 kmph.
Present position is plotted here ... it shows the system is almost parallel to #Chennai.

Here's the satellite visible shot at 10:30am. Present cloud top temperature is around -84.7C, suggesting deep convections.

Midnight analysis and forecast of track suggests that most of numeric weather models agree to Central, N-central Andhra coast, almost similar to Cyclone Helen.
COLA GFS model expects the cyclone to reach central Andhra coast by midnight of Wednesday.

DRY weather expected for Andhra coast, Tamilnadu coast during next 24 hrs.
Meanwhile, more rain ahead for W-ghats from S tip Tamilnadu to N-W Maharastra today as well.
HEAVY rain to persist for S Kerala and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.