Friday, June 27, 2014
Speculation of the monsoon performance has become the central focus of our economy so much our Prime Minister is reported to monitor reports almost real time. So why is it so central? According to industry body Assocham, a 1 per cent deficit in rains could hurt India's economic growth by 0.35 per cent. Assuming a 20% deficiency, our GDP will no doubt be deeply in the red, given that last year GDP was within the sub 4 range.
#chennai - 3:58pm, lots of mini showers seen over W, N-W and S-W within 60km from city. Moderate rain expected to push into city after 5pm.
Though the lack of coupling between the Nino SSTs and atmosphere (SOI) one of the principal reasons why the current El Nino struggles to emerge seems resolved as of now, WMO offers a caveat that it may rebound into positive territory by next week as Jose Bastardi, WeatherBell tweet informs:“WMO site EC indicates after SOI back and forth next 7 days, major burst of anti nino positive develops late next week”
Daily values for Nino Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and SOI have crossed Nino threshold though their 30 day mean values may still show a lag. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which till very recently reflected La Nina values have now flipped into El Nino mode.According to the Australian Met yesterday daily SOI was a whopping (-) 20.6. It is now clear that we are not having a canonical El Nino, but a Modoki (pseudo El Nino), Type II variety wich would be very devastating for the Indian monsoon. To accentuate the problem, both the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO) have turned adverse for rainfall, compounding the adverse effect of the Modoki.