Monday, June 25, 2012

Cloud Photography India >> must see ...
6pm, Heavy rain seen over Orissa, Chatisgarh, S,S-W.Andhra ... 
A GOOD wet phase of MJO starting from 1st week of July till End of July ... this is very good for Monsoon .. 

RT @1prad: @weatherofindia   Cherrapunji records extremely heavy rainfall........
46cm (460 mm)

RT @rajugana:  Bangalore 4.25pm, Sunny day, Cloud formation in the AN. Showers in some areas (Richmond circle). a pic

Will the IMD monsoon forecast pip global models in hitting the bulls’ eye? Probably yes!

The IMD is reduced to a butt of jokes. Two years in a row, they failed to predict the monsoon.  During 2010-2011 monsoon season, they got the forecast wrong, failing to anticipate a looming La Nina. The next year, again they missed factoring in the re-emergence of a second year La Nina and ended up with mud on their faces.

Last week the IMD revised their May forecast last week.  While their forecast of a “normal” monsoon [(viz. 96-104% of Long Period Average (LPA)] remains unchanged, rainfall shortfall is now forecasted at 4% of Long Period Average (LPA), instead of an estimated 1% earlier in May. This makes their latest forecast a downgrade of their first in May this year.

The probability for a below average monsoon [viz 90-96% of LPA] increases by a whopping 9% while those of a normal monsoon decreased 5% from their May forecast.  Since the IMD model possesses a statistical model error rate of + 5%, there is now theoretically, almost an equal probability for a below-average and a normal monsoon occurring this year. 

Can they put their infamous past behind and hit a bulls-eye this year? Most probably yes!

Bay wing of Monsoon continue to be very strong and shows NO relent !
Present W.D over N.Kashmir is moving East and it'll persist for another 2/3 days.

The weak offshore trough along S-W coast persists.. it's expected to deepen from 29-Jun.

@shanbhagsheetal >> #Bangalore - Evening sharp showers are possible again from 27-Jun.. as the Arabian sea monsoon picks strength.

#Chennai - having a windy, High cloud cover day.. now having a breeze from S-E. Records 37.0°C at 2:10pm
East India will have less showers from tomorrow, till 30-Jun... But North of N-E states will have strong & widespread rain till 30-Jun

For next 24hrs, Heavy rain forecast for N,N-E Andhra, Orissa and S.Chatisgarh ...

RT @kaymenon: Not a trace of cloud over Trivandrum! No rain in last 24 hours! We are (back to) enjoying summer! Join us for sun n' sea :)

Arabian sea wing of Monsoon to get started again from tomorrow .. and it's expected to be at its best till 2-Jul.. 
Today, the circulation over Bihar has vanished, a weak circulation can be seen over North N-E states..

The circulation over N-E states will persist till 27-Jun. More heavy rain for this zone till month end and beyond!

Next N.Bay circulation is expected to pop on 28-Jun.. and move W-N-W ..

Entire Maharastra coast, #Mumbai , KArnataka coast to get heavy rains in next 24hrs till 30-Jun..

RT @astromandaar: Here west suburb of #Mumbai Sun n Rain playing hide n seek (10:08am)
RT @shanbhagsheetal: #Bangalore -  Max temperature of 32 degree & humidity of 80%.Weather has become hot in the last 2 days.

1pm, Totally calm along Maharastra coast, some showers seen over Coastal Karnataka & Kerala, Rain over N-E states..