"92B" - Now a LOW pressure system over S-S-E Bay.

Latest analysis show, that "92 B" is now a LOW pressure system with pressures around 1004 mb.
Present location is over S-S-E Bay.... 5.4N , 89.8E

JTWC warning at 11:30pm
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THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.4N 89.8E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.2N 90.0E, APPROXIMATELY 620 NM EAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED TO WRAP INTO AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS CONTINUED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES APPROXIMATELY 10 KNOTS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AS WELL AS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

COLA, IMD and NOGAPS Model agree that the system will be weak till Friday noon, before intensifying into a Depression and moving N-W into Bay on Saturday, 11-May.

According to COLA model, the Depression is expected to move North (from 11-May) towards Odisha coast and it may re-curve N-E towards Bangladesh or Myanmar coast and sees a weakening around N-W or N-Central Bay.

NOGAPS model also suggests the same path as that of COLA, and also suggests a weakening over N-W or N-Central Bay.

Monsoon Update :: 

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Once the system moves into Bay, the South West Monsoon is expected to set into S,S-E Bay and over South Andaman Islands on 12 / 13-May-2013

Rain in Hyderabad !

RT @bumblme: Wednesday 5:00 PM :: raining in #Hyderabad, hot summer cools down @weatherofindia #SummerMustHaves 

6:10pm, @IPL #PepsiIPL , Hyderbad Airport is reporting " Light rain with Thunder storm "

RT @rajugana: Bangalore 6.50pm, Sunny, hot and humid day. Development of T. Clouds.. will it rain??? sky pic http://t.co/3ZgWgFnRdY 

6:30pm, Bangalore Airport is reporting " Showers in vicinity "

"92B" is still a low level circulation and situated over S.Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/244cg >> More on it, in our 7:30pm update !

Strong cross equatorial winds are seen gushing into S.Bay along the Southern quadrant of the Circulation "92B"... http://ow.ly/i/244cg

If the present circulation "92B" intensifies and moves North into Bay, then S-W Monsoon will reach South Andaman Islands on 12 / 13-May.

3:30pm, Due to Cross Equatorial winds, convective activity seen over Maldives, zones South of Srilanka & over "92B".. http://ow.ly/i/244pI

3:30pm, T.showers seen over Coastal,S.Odisha, N,N-central Andhra and over S.Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/244pI

#Kerala ... "Heat dissipates as rain arrives in good force" ... http://ow.ly/kOKgD 

Today, T.showers expected for W-Ghats of Kerala, W,N-W Tamilnadu and into S,S-W,central,N-E Karnataka as well ... http://ow.ly/i/242Vr 

Today, a circulation seen over E.Uttarpradesh, Bihar, N.Bengal, it's trough seen extending South upto N-W Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/242Y6 

Low level circulation over Northern N-E states persists and will continue for another 3 days ... http://ow.ly/i/2432e 

Even the North South trough extending from Bihar to S-W Karnataka is expected to persist for another 3 days ... http://ow.ly/i/2432e

During next 2 days, T.showers expected for most of W-Ghats Kerala, W,N-W Tamilnadu, S,S-W Karnataka, #Bangalore .. http://ow.ly/i/2435N 

Almost NO T.showers expected for West,Central, E-central India. Some rain expected for N,E Bengal in next 2 days. !

In next 4 days, scattered T.showers to continue for Sikkim, N.Bengal and over most of N-E States... http://ow.ly/i/243bW 

#HOT at 1:30pm, Nagpur = 46 C, Hyderabad, Lucknow = 42 C, Ahmedabad, #Delhi = 41C, Jaipur = 40C, Kolkata = 35C, Bangalore = 33C, Mumbai =31C

Believe it or not ! On 7-May, Lowest minimum temperature of 14.8°C  has been recorded at Dhar (Madhya Pradesh)

#Chennai - 1pm, Temperature around 37 C and feels like 46 C. Humidity around 51 % and NO strong Sea breeze yet.

A weak W.D is affecting Kashmir today, with a upper level circulation seen over N.Pakistan and N-W Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/i/241M1 

Another weak W.D is expected to reach Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab on 10-May ... http://ow.ly/i/241P6 

Scattered rain for Kashmir and Himachal expected on Friday, Saturday. Odd rain may pop into Punjab as well ... http://ow.ly/i/241QJ 

"92B" - Slowly grouping now, Expected to move N-N-W from 11-May

Latest position of "92 B" is 5.8 N , 86 E.

The system is expected to persist without intensifying over South Bay for next 2 days !
COLA, IMD and NOGAPS models expects that the system will start intensifying from 10-May over S-S-E Bay.

According to COLA, From 11-May, the system is expected to be a Depression and expects to track in N-N-W direction into Bay.

While NOGAPS model suggests that the system will attain Depression strength on 11-May over S-S-E Bay and then track N-N-W and then move N-E.

The system is expected to track towards Myanmar or Bangladesh ! and this is good for Bay wing of South West Monsoon.

By 13-May-2013, the South West Monsoon is expected to reach Southern Andaman Islands.