Saturday, July 17, 2010
La Nina to bring rains, and a colder winter
A monsoon-friendly La Nina condition has established rather quickly in the east equatorial Pacific Ocean in June itself, according to Japanese researchers.
Apart from the “above normal” rains for August and September, it may also ring in colder than normal conditions during the northern hemisphere winter.
Double bonanza
If the forecasts were to hold, the northern plains would stand to benefit from a double bonanza – assured soil moisture and cooler climes during the season.
These are ideal conditions for growing wheat and mustard, among others, during the ensuing rabi season.
A “fairly cold event” or La Nina (as against the warm El Nino) would roll out during the rest of the monsoon and beyond, says Dr Jing-Jia Luo, a researcher based in Tokyo.
Dr Jing-Jia is Senior Scientist with the Climate Variation Predictability and Applicability Research Programme at the Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) under the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (Jamstec).
The La Nina may also last longer than usual, Dr Jing-Jia wrote to Business Line. He would not be surprised to see it active for more than one year from now.
Longer lasting
Its impact would be most visible in above-normal rains for India during the rest of the monsoon, and into the following autumn and winter.
Outside India, La Nina conditions are expected to lead to more rains/floods over north-eastern China while hot/dry conditions may emerge over Southeast China and southern Japan.
Above normal rains are also indicated for Indonesia, northern parts of South America, East Africa during the fall and winter seasons. Many parts of Australia also might experience surplus rains from October to early 2011.
Typhoon re-emerges
Meanwhile on Friday, tropical storm Consun in the South China Sea regained typhoon status and was barrelling towards Southwest China/Vietnamese coast for a landfall.
Once again, Consun has come in the way of any meaningful activity that might have been triggered in the Bay of Bengal, with a chunk of the monsoon flows straying off the beaten track to feed the typhoon.
Fortunately for India, forecast models indicate that Consun might make a landfall by Saturday itself and get weakened over the rugged terrain of interior Vietnam.
This would once again free up the monsoon flows from the dominating influence of the typhoon. However, forecasts did not indicate a ‘resourceful' low-pressure area taking shape in the Bay any time soon.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) sees the flows reviving over the Arabian Sea by Monday but largely benefiting peninsular India only.
A properly oriented ‘low' would have brought the monsoon trough southward, but India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its forecast on Friday that the trough was expected to move north instead.
This would bring another round of rains into east and northeast India over the next few days, even as the west coast and parts of interior peninsula may continue to receive rains.
The IMD said in its update on Friday that it did not expect any possibility of ‘cyclogenesis' (birth of a weather system) in the Bay of Bengal for another five days.
Meanwhile, the all-India agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said that though the rainfall has been deficient in some districts of the country, it has been largely well-distributed over the last fortnight.
This has ultimately helped hasten the sowing of kharif crops in more and more areas. The revived monsoon in north India accelerated the sowing/transplanting of rice, oilseeds and cotton and rice sowing is at its peak.
Rainfall has softened the soil so that the already sown/transplanted crops, particularly in Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan, find themselves in good condition. Most parts of soybean-growing Madhya Pradesh, too, received adequate rains as was the case with the cane-growing areas.
The area under groundnut crop has increased substantially in Anantapur district in the Rayalaseema subdivision of Andhra Pradesh.
The same was the case with red gram and castor also, as ‘sole crops' improved in the district thanks to good rains in the month of June and subsequently during July.
On 16-Jul... Southwest monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh
Southwest monsoon has been vigorous over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema and active over South Interior Karnataka
Rainfall occurred at most places over coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka, at many places over Telangana and at a few places over Tamil Nadu and North Interior Karnataka.
The following stations recorded very heavy-to-heavy rainfall in Centimetres:
Repalle (Guntur dt) 23, Paleru Bridge (Krishna dt) 14, Bapatla, Satenapalli (Guntur dt) and Avanigadda (Krishna dt) 12 each, Atchampet (Guntur dt), Devala (Nilgiris dt), Bhatkal (Uttara Kannada dt), Shirali and Agumbe 10 each, Bhadrachalam, Guntur, Piduguralla (Guntur dt), Kozhikode, Nilambur and Perinthalamanna (both Malapuram dt) and Mannarkad (Palakkad dt) 9 each, Podili (Prakasam dt), Quilandy (Kozhikode dt), Manjeri (Malapuram dt) and Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt) 8 each and Tadipatri (Ananthapur dt), Chinna Kallar (Coimbatore dt), Thalasserry (Kannur dt), Angadipuram (Malapuram dt), Kozhikode airport, Ottapalam, Pattambi and Thrithala (all Palakkad dt) 7 each.
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Valparai, Gudalur Bazaar (Nilgiris dt), Vadakara (Kozhikode dt), Mudibidre (Dakshina Kannada dt), Gerusoppa (Uttara Kannada dt), Chodavaram (Visakhapatnam dt), Bheemavaram (West Godavari dt), Sirpur (Adilabad dt), Vikarabad (Renga Reddy dt) and Palamaner (Chittoor dt) 6 each, Cholavaram and Thamaraipakkam (both Thiruvallur dt), Gudiyatham (Vellore dt), Vellore, Thalli (Krishnagiri dt), Sathyamangalam (Erode dt), Kannur, Alathur (Palakkad dt), Enamackal (Thrissur dt), Perumbavur (Ernakulam dt), Peermade and Munnar (both Idukki dt), Mangalore airport, Panambur, Puttur (Dakshina Kannada dt), Bijapur, Parvathipuram (Vizianagaram dt), Nandigama, Ongole, Koida (Khammam dt), Nandyal and Atmakur (Kurnool dt) 5 each, Arakonam and Walajapet (both Vellore dt), Tiruttani, Chittur (Palakkad dt), Chalakudy (Thrissur dt), Aluwa and Piravom (both Ernakulam dt), CIAL Kochi, Kanjirapally (Kottayam dt), Mani (Dakshina Kannada dt), Honavar, Anekal (Bangalore Urban dt), Kottigehara and Sringeri (both Chikmagalur dt), Bhagamandala (Kodagu dt), Linganamakki (Shimoga dt), Paderu (Visakhapatnam dt), Kaikalur (Krishna dt), Veeraghattam (Srikakulam dt), Machilipatnam, Perur (Khammam dt), Mudhol (Adilabad dt), Owk (Kurnool dt), Kamalapuram, Rayachoty, Badvel and Lakkireddipaali (all Cuddapah dt) 4 each, Ramakrishnarajupet and Poondi (both Thiruvallur dt), Sethiyathope (Cuddalore dt), Adiramapattinam, Madukkur (Thanjavur dt), Thiruthuraipoondi (Thiruvarur dt), Melalathur (Vellore dt), Pennagaram (Dharmapuri dt), Naduvattam (Nilgiris dt), Ambalavayal and Kuppady (both Wayanad dt), Ponnani (Malapuram dt), Kollengode (Palakkad dt), Thrissur, Irinjalakuda and Kunnamkulam (both Thrissur dt), Vellanikara, Idukki, Agathi airport, Kundapur (Udupi dt), Udupi, Ankola and Manki (both Uttara Kannada dt), Gadag, Raichur, Kammardi and Lakkavalli (both Chikmagalur dt), Arsikere (Hassan dt), Huliyurdurga (Tumkur dt), Cheepurupalli (Vizianagaram dt), Narsapur, Mangalagiri (Guntur dt), Udayagiri, Vinjamur and Atmakur (all Nellore dt), Mandasa (Srikakulam dt), Gudivada (Krishna dt), Chintalapudi (West Godavari dt), Armoor (Nizamabad dt), Parkal (Warangal dt), Nalgonda, Rajampet, Prodattur, Vempalli and Muddanur (all Cuddapah dt), Punganur and Pakala (both Chittoor dt), Chittoor, Gooty (Ananthapur dt) and Kurnool 3 each, Chennai, Thozhudur and Virudhachalam (both Cuddalore dt), Peravurani (Thanjavur dt), Muthupet (Tiruvarur dt), Tiruvarur, Alankudi (Pudukottai dt), Ramanathapuram, Tiruvadanai (Ramanathapuram dt), Sholingur (Vellore dt), Hosur (Krishnagiri dt), Sankaridurg (Salem dt), Gobichettipalayam (Erode dt), Coonoor, Irikkur (Kannur dt), Vythiri (Wayanad dt), Kochi airport, Vaikom (Kottayam dt), Kollam, Aminidivi, Kavaratti, Mulki (Dakshina Kannada dt), Karwar, Thondebhavi (Chikkaballapura dt), Tarikere (Chikmagalur dt), Ponnampet and Virajpet (both Kodagu dt), Mysore, Arasalu and Thalaguppa (both Shimoga dt), Pavgada and Tiptur (both Tumkur dt), Macherla and Tenali (both Guntur dt), Nuzvid (Krishna dt), Polavaram and Koderu (both West Godavari dt), Narsipatnam and Elamanchili (both Visakhapatnam dt), Tuni, Rentachintala, Yerragondapalam (Prakasam dt), Srungavarapukota (Vizianagaramdt), Khammam, Madhira (Khammam dt), Kaleswaram (Karimnagar dt), Eturnagaram and Mulugu (both Warangal dt), Porumamilla (Cuddapah dt), Koilkuntla and Allagadda (both Kurnool dt) and Arogyavaram 2 each and Anna University and DGP office (both Chennai dt), Chennai airport, Kelambakkam (Kanchipuram dt), Red Hills (Thiruvallur dt), Cuddalore, Panruti (Cuddalore dt), Kallakurichi, Sankarapuram, Tirukoilur and Ulundurpet (all Villupuram dt), Villupuram, Nagapattinam, Mudhukulathur (Ramanathapuram dt), Krishnagiri, Shoolagiri (Krishnagiri dt), Pollachi (Coimbatore dt), Bhavanisagar (Erode dt), Ketti and Kothagiri (both Nilgiris dt), Uthagamandalam, Jayamkondam (Ariyalur dt), Thaliparamba (Kannur dt), Alapuzha, Kayamkulam, Cherthala and Mancompu (all Alapuzha dt), Kottayam, Punalur, Thiruvananthapuram, Minicoy, Jagalbet (Uttara Kannada dt), Basavakalyan (Bidar dt), Almatti (Bijapur dt), Chincholi (Gulbarga dt), M. M. Hills and Yelandur (both Chamrajnagar dt), Balehonnur, Kalasa and N. R. Pura (all Chikmagalur dt), Channagiri (Davanagere dt), Sakleshpura (Hassan dt), Madikeri, K. R, Sagara (Mandya dt), Sargur (Mysore dt), Thyagarthy (Shimoga dt), Koratagere (Tumkur dt), Myryalaguda, Nagarjunasagar Dam and Devarakonda (all Nalgonda dt), Kandukur, Darsi, Cumbum and Addanki (all Prakasam dt), Araku Valley (Visakhapatnam dt), Gajapathinagaram, Komarada and Terlam (all Vizianagaram dt), Seetharamapuram (Nellore dt), Eluru (West Godavari dt), Gannavaram, Navipet (Nizamabad dt), Venkatapuram, Kunavaram and Dummagudem (all Khammam dt), Ibrahimpatnam and Tandur (bothRenga Reddy dt), Huzurabad (Karimnagar dt), Adilabad, Mahabubabad (Warangal dt), Venkatagiri Kota, Kuppam, Thambalapalle and Kalakada (all Chittoor dt), Dhone and Pathikonda (both Kurnool dt), Jammalamadugu (Cuddapah dt), Ananthapur, Pamidi and Rayadurg (both Ananthapur dt) 1 each.
2:30pm, Heavy showers breaking out again over S and N-W Uttarpradesh, N. Madhyapradesh and E. Rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/2Fmn
2:30pm, Heavy showers lined-up all along west coast from Gujarat to extreme south tip .. http://ow.ly/i/2Fmn
RT @shonyaa: juhu under deep water- pictures http://bit.ly/azaZD1 @Ruchi @venkatsoft @weatherofindia @shimishah @mandaliyavishal
Rainfall characteristics of Coimbatore district in Tamilnadu
The Coimbatore district is situated in North Western part of the TamilNadu, the district covering an area of 4889 sq.km falls between 10°13'4" North to 11° 24'5" North latitude and 76° 39' 25" East to 77° 18' 26" East longitude. The temperature ranges between 18.32°C in the month of January and 36.42°C in the month of April. The area is bonded by Western Gates on West, Nilgiri hills in North West and Anaimalai and Palani hill in south. The district gradient of slope gradually decreases towards west to east, the district drain Bhavani, Noyal, Pallar, Amaravathi rivers. The study deals the rainfall characteristics of the Coimbatore District, which includes the spatial distribution and variability through different seasons, precipitation ratio and frequency occurrences. The study is based on 49 years of the monthly rainfall data for 33 rain gauge stations.Winter Season
During the winter season the region heavily experiences low rainfall and it is driest among the all season which is maximum recorded at adjacent area of the region which Coonoor 86.82 mm in the month of February and lowest recorded at Coimbatore town which is 4.1mm in the month of February. The amount of rainfall decreases north west to north east and central part of region such as Annur, Sulur, Sultanpet, Krishnapurm and Podanur. Its rainfall average 20mm, this season contributes 2.07% to mean annual rainfall.
The variability rainfall is higher in this season while comparatively to other season, because low rainfall areas experiences greater fluctuation of variability. The lowest variability recorded adjacent area of region which is Coonoor 77.29% maximum at Palladam 232.2% and lowest variability recorded north western part which is Anaiktti 115.34% and southern part such as Upper Niradam (Chinnakallar), Solaiyar Nagar, Valaparai, Anaimalai experiences the low variability and central part eastern part gradually increase variability of rainfall, this fluctuations indicates the region experiences heavy low rainfall.
Summer Season
This is hot weather season the mount of rainfall gradually increases and however, the amount of rainfall occurrence in this season is largely due to convection effect, this season contributes 14.97% of mean annual rainfall this season average rainfall is 186.01mm and almost 80% area receives more than 186 mm accept north western and southern part of district. The highest amount of rainfall is recorded at the Upper Niradam (Chinnakallar) 224.14mm in the month of May and seasonal average is 370.7 mm and where the lowest rainfall is recorded in Krishnapuram 5.3mm and its seasonal average 69.8 mm.The variability during this hot weather season maximum recorded at P.N. Palayam (86.36%), Attaikatti (79.93%), Negamam (78.34%), Sulur (77.86%), and Krishnapuram (76.07%) Coimbatore town (67.35%) Podanur (63.36%), Peelamedu (56.6%), and variability generally decreases from north to south and lowest variability experience adajecent area at Tthirumrthy Nagar 44.32%, and Solaiyar Nagar (49.07%), Sultanpet (52.03%), Vettaikarnpudur (54.93%), Mettupalayam (56.6%), and Pollchi (58.06%),.The variability of region highest experience in north and eastern part of region. This season will be low because west of influences by the pre monsoon winds.
South West Monsoon Season
Huge amount of rainfall variation noticed in this season, half of northern part of district receives low rain and half of southern part receives heaviest rainfall during season. The average rainfall of this season 573.20 mm and it is 46.13 % of mean annual rainfall. The highest seasonal rainfall recorded in Upper Niradam (Chinnakallar) (3655.5mm), and 1202.1 mm in the month of July, 996.25mm in June, 924.22 mm in August. Soliyar Nagar 2846.1mm, Anaimalais 2702.8mm, Valparai 2098.1mm, Topslip 772.4mm, lowest seasonal rainfall recorded in Krishnapurm 60.5mm, and 7.4 mm rainfall recorded in the month of August Sulur 113.9, Sultanpet 136.4 mm rainfall but southern parts of Districts receives more than 80% rainfall during this season. Most of south and west of Pollchi and Palaghat gap experiences highest rainfall, because of influence by leeward of Western Ghats. Upper Niradam, Soliyar Nagar, Anaimalais and Topslip are wettest places of district.The south west monsoon rainfall variability experiences very less variability, comparatively to the other season, that is the 28.02% lowest at Topslip, Anaimalai, Valparai, Solaiyar Nagar and west of Pollachi and south of Chitrachavdi experiences very less variability due to heavy rainfall during this season. Where as very high variability experiences at adjacent area of region Poolankinar 89.99%, Sultanpet, Sulur, Krishnapurm, Podanur, and P.N.Palayam.
North East monsoon season
The North east monsoon season is important rainy season in the district, total rainfall in this season is low comparatively to the south west monsoon, but the eastern, north western, andcentral Upland region such as Annur, Sulur, Sultanpet, Negamam, Krishnapuram, Podanur Coimbatore town, and Peelamedu experiences maximum quantum of rainfall. This season contributes 36.82% of mean annual rainfall and average rainfall this season is 457.49 mm rainfall. The rainfall is gradually increase east to north west and south western part of the district, the highest rainfall recorded in adjacent area at Sundakapalayam 1713.3 mm, Upper Niradam 599.3, Anaikatty 589.64mm, Attakati 570.2, and where as lowest rainfall is recorded in Vettaikarnpdur 258.2mm, Annur 260.6mm and Krishnapuram 271.4mm, and Sultanpet 284.4mm, 80% of area receives well rain in this season, and most of agricultural activity takes places for showing crops.The north east monsoon rainfall variability experiences higher than the south west monsoon due to lesser rain, the maximum variability recorded at adjacent area of such as Sundakaplayam 453.74% and lowest at Kethi 24.37% and north of Pollachi indicated higher variability and Anaimalai, Topslip, and Sultanpet experiences low rainfall variability. However rest of area experiences uniformity of variability.
Variability of Rainfall
“Variability defined as the deviation from mean” or “ratio of the standard deviation to the mean rainfall” and in other words variability of co-efficient of variation. Annual rainfall variability of region stretches between 19.69% to 387.91% at adjacent area of the region which is Coonoor and Sundakapalyam respectively, and 21.16% at Topslip and highest variability recorded in the central part of region that is Padanur (52.28%) and P.N.Palayam (51.81%) at northern part of region. Sultanpet experiences very low variability in eastern part district and in south western part Topslip and Vettaikarnpudur experiences low variability and Anaikatti, Coonoor experiences low variability in north western part of the region where as rest of district experiences homogenous variability in the region.
Coimbatore district bounded by Western Ghats,in the west and north of Nilagiri hills, in the south Anaimalai and Palani hills, and this district stretches in rain shadow region of Western Ghats. Normal rainfall of region during 1959-2008 is 1242.49 mm and this district receives above normal rainfall of Tamil Nadu state. The maximum rainfall recorded at Upper Niradam (Chinnakallar) 1202.01mm in the month of July,and lowest of region recorded at Coimbatore town 4.1 mm in the month of February. The Coimabtore districts experiences driest in the month of January. The analysis of region heavy rainfall experiences towards the south and south western part and north western part in summer, south west monsoon and north east monsoon season, and huge amount of deficit in the east, north east and gradually in south east part and central part of district. The south west monsoon contributes the highest percentage of rainfall, which is 46.13% (573 mm), north east monsoon 36.82% (458 mm),summer 14.97% (186 mm) and winter season contribute lowest of which is 2.07 % (26 mm).Source: Ishappa Muniyappa Rathod, Aruchamy.S, epartment of Geography, School of Geosciences,Bharathidasan University, Tiruchirappalli.
Photo:-My Collections
Annual Rainfall
-------------
Chinnakallar - 466cm (wettest place in Tamilnadu)
Solaiyar Nagar - 371 cm
Anaimalai - 352 cm
Valparai - 288 cm
Sundakapalayam - 201 cm (of 201 cm it gets 172 cm rainfall from North east monsoon - probably the wettest place in India during NEM)
For more Rainfall data on Coimbatore dt visit www.Tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com
Mumbai rains and water position as on 15th. July:
Rainfall at Colaba: 1411 mms (+452)
Rainfall at S'Cruz: 1318 mms (+351)
Rainfall at the
Lakes:Vihar1500 mms,Tulsi:1100mms, Bhatsa: 865 mms,Tansa: 660 mms,Vaitarna: 562 mms, Upper Vaitarna: 504mms.
Lakes Storage Full Capacity: 13.0 mllitres :
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July 2010: 2.42 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2009: 1.85 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2008 : 3.88 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2007: 6.23 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2006: 8.04 mllitres
Lakes Storage as on 15th.July2005: 8.67 mllitres
Average of last 5 years Storage as on 15th. July: 6.71mllitres.
Normal Requirement of City /Month: 1.02 mllitres
Supply today/ Month: 0.87 mllitres
So Today, we have a stock of 3 Months supply !
Bikinis in Moscow: Northern Europe wilts in heat wave
From Russia's Urals mountains thru western Germany to Scandinavia, high temperatures hovering stubbornly in the mid-30s C has baked northern parts of Europe, which are usually spared the heat of the Mediterranean.
With the maximum in the day touching 34c in Moscow on Saturday, there was the rare sight of women in bikinis sunbathing Thursday in Kolomenskoye park in Moscow.
But it hasn't been all fun and games. The air-conditioning systems on board the high-speed trains of Germany's national rail operator Deutsche Bahn broke dow
n several times. With locked windows, dozens of passengers were afflicted with heat exhaustion after spending hours trapped in temperatures of up to 50 C (122 F).
And, drowning deaths were up in Eastern Europe as people flocked to seas, lakes and rivers in search of a break from the blistering heat. More than 230 people died in the last week alone across Russ
ia, with 21 perishing over two weeks in Latvia, according to officials,
On Friday, Finland, reported a 75-year record of 34.2 C , stocks were quickly running out of fans and air conditioners. The same happened in Germany and Hungary, where the mercury hit 37 C (99 F).
The highs in Europe on Saturday were:
Decimomannu ( Italy); 40c,Mostar ( Bosnia and Herzegovina): 39c
Lamia (Greece): 38c, Rome (Italy): 35c,Budapest (Hungary) :35c,Senkursk (Russia): 35c,Berlin & Liepzig: 35c. While the hottest in Germany was Cottbus at 36c.
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