Friday, August 19, 2011

MJO wave seen fuelling next rain wave ...
Chennai - 8:11pm, Sea breeze is strong .. cloud formation has started over N-W
SW Monsoon :: "Tamilnadu is considered to be in the rain shadow region" ...

MJO wave seen fuelling next rain wave

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has picked early signs of a rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave evolving in the Indian Ocean.
MJO waves periodically travel in the upper atmosphere from west to east in alternating wet and dry phases and have corresponding impact on weather over ground falling under its footprint.
The BoM also said that the monsoon trough has re-established itself across India and Southeast Asia, with renewed convection in the northern Indian Ocean.


Most climate models suggest that an MJO event will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean over the coming week or two but with little or no eastward movement expected.
So there would be an increased chance of enhanced, dry south-easterly winds returning to northern Australia and hence increasing fire danger, the BoM said.
Back home, the overall seasonal rain deficit as on Thursday remained at one per cent with major gains having been made in northwest and east India.
The northwest saw the rain surplus growing to eight per cent, while in the east the deficit has been drastically reduced to as much.


Central India was exactly neutral while the south featured a one per cent deficit, which, in itself, is an improvement over the past week.
Going forward, India Meteorological Department (IMD) saw fresh rains materialising over the west coast, central India and adjoining peninsular India apparently being fuelled by the MJO wave.
Helpful upper air cyclonic circulations were spotted over northwest Bay of Bengal and west Uttar Pradesh on Thursday afternoon.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over central and adjoining peninsular India on Friday that would scale up thereafter.


A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
It would be isolated heavy over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Friday

SW Monsoon :: "Tamilnadu is considered to be in the rain shadow region"

As on date [13.08.2011] TN & PDY sub division received an actual rainfall of 128.2mm against NORMAL rainfall of 146.4mm for the period 01.06.2011 to 13.08.2011 which is [-]12%. In IMD term [-]19 to [+]19 percentage is considered as normal. (How and why I do not know. The rainfall during this period can definitely be termed as SWM rainfall, since rain bringing clouds will be moving from W to E.
During any SWM period TN & PDY rainfall average will be between 36.2 cm to 42.0 cm. [Courtesy:UKMET, & IITM Pune]
Except to south eastern most coastal regions -like Thoothukudi & parts of Tirunelveli & parts of Kanyakumari districts- rainfall distribution at any given week during SWM will be ISOLATED to occasional FAIRLY WIDE-SPREADS. One can infer it from daily rainfall graph uploaded in the web. So the convective action bringing rainfall during June to Sept may be termed as SWM rainfall, even though TN is considered to be in the rain shadow region.

- Kaneyen 
Dam Levels in Tamil Nadu as on 15.08.2011 ...
Rainfall Toppers in Tamil Nadu from 1.6.2011 to 18.8.2011 ...
Chennai - yesterday rainfall 7cm
Rain for himalayan foot hills will resume fron 24/25-Aug... meanwhile heavy rain forecast for Coastal, N, N-E Andhra till 25-Aug.
Rain will dry up over Himalayan foot hills, E.central and even N-E states from 20-Aug
In next 24hrs, Heavy rain for S.Maharastra coast, entire coast Karnataka, N.Kerala, coastal Andhra and Chatisgarh..
Chennai - Today also heavy showers possible after 6pm, But NO sea breeze yet 4:23pm...
RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.50am, After 2 days break, it appears heading for a wet spell.Cloudy sky and raining now a pic


Monsoon clouds gather near mumbai . Sat image at 5.30 am
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Mumbai. Weather

Rains returning to mumbai
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