Friday, August 19, 2011
MJO wave seen fuelling next rain wave
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has picked early signs of a rain-friendly Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave evolving in the Indian Ocean.
MJO waves periodically travel in the upper atmosphere from west to east in alternating wet and dry phases and have corresponding impact on weather over ground falling under its footprint.
The BoM also said that the monsoon trough has re-established itself across India and Southeast Asia, with renewed convection in the northern Indian Ocean.
TROUGH ESTABLISHES
Most climate models suggest that an MJO event will continue to develop in the Indian Ocean over the coming week or two but with little or no eastward movement expected.
So there would be an increased chance of enhanced, dry south-easterly winds returning to northern Australia and hence increasing fire danger, the BoM said.
Back home, the overall seasonal rain deficit as on Thursday remained at one per cent with major gains having been made in northwest and east India.
The northwest saw the rain surplus growing to eight per cent, while in the east the deficit has been drastically reduced to as much.
MAJOR GAINS
Central India was exactly neutral while the south featured a one per cent deficit, which, in itself, is an improvement over the past week.
Going forward, India Meteorological Department (IMD) saw fresh rains materialising over the west coast, central India and adjoining peninsular India apparently being fuelled by the MJO wave.
Helpful upper air cyclonic circulations were spotted over northwest Bay of Bengal and west Uttar Pradesh on Thursday afternoon.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over central and adjoining peninsular India on Friday that would scale up thereafter.
WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning valid for the next two days said that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
It would be isolated heavy over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Assam, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura on Friday
SW Monsoon :: "Tamilnadu is considered to be in the rain shadow region"
As on date [13.08.2011] TN & PDY sub division received an actual rainfall of 128.2mm against NORMAL rainfall of 146.4mm for the period 01.06.2011 to 13.08.2011 which is [-]12%. In IMD term [-]19 to [+]19 percentage is considered as normal. (How and why I do not know. The rainfall during this period can definitely be termed as SWM rainfall, since rain bringing clouds will be moving from W to E.
During any SWM period TN & PDY rainfall average will be between 36.2 cm to 42.0 cm. [Courtesy:UKMET, & IITM Pune]
Except to south eastern most coastal regions -like Thoothukudi & parts of Tirunelveli & parts of Kanyakumari districts- rainfall distribution at any given week during SWM will be ISOLATED to occasional FAIRLY WIDE-SPREADS. One can infer it from daily rainfall graph uploaded in the web. So the convective action bringing rainfall during June to Sept may be termed as SWM rainfall, even though TN is considered to be in the rain shadow region.
- Kaneyen
During any SWM period TN & PDY rainfall average will be between 36.2 cm to 42.0 cm. [Courtesy:UKMET, & IITM Pune]
Except to south eastern most coastal regions -like Thoothukudi & parts of Tirunelveli & parts of Kanyakumari districts- rainfall distribution at any given week during SWM will be ISOLATED to occasional FAIRLY WIDE-SPREADS. One can infer it from daily rainfall graph uploaded in the web. So the convective action bringing rainfall during June to Sept may be termed as SWM rainfall, even though TN is considered to be in the rain shadow region.
- Kaneyen
In next 24hrs, Heavy rain for S.Maharastra coast, entire coast Karnataka, N.Kerala, coastal Andhra and Chatisgarh.. http://t.co/WEcc6hY
Chennai - Today also heavy showers possible after 6pm, But NO sea breeze yet 4:23pm... http://ow.ly/i/fYCX
RT @rajugana: Baroda 9.50am, After 2 days break, it appears heading for a wet spell.Cloudy sky and raining now a pic http://ow.ly/i/fXZR
india_sat_600x405.jpg
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