Friday, June 04, 2010


TC 03A HAS EXITED BACK INTO WATER IN THE GULF OF OMAN: Update at 8.00pm ISt. Satellite image of 9.30pm IST.
" Phet" is currently located at 23.0N 59.6E, 100 Kms south-East of Muscat, having crossed over to the Arabian Sea from the Northern coast of Oman close to SUR. Winds are at 65 Knts, with central pressure of about 974 Mb. Earlier,"PHET" crossed the Eastern Coast of Oman and tracked in a Northerly direction and currently has re-emerged into the Arabian Sea North of Oman.
Satellite image shows considerable decline in rain, and rainfall area.Muscat recorded 34 mms of rain upto 8pm Local time today.This is quite a lot of rain for Muscat.
Forecast models are predicting the track to be towards Pakistan Coast, move rapidly now, and make landfall near Karachi, in the next 24 hours.
As the weakened "Phet" approaches the Kutch region, Coastal Saurashtra and Kutch regions can expect some heavy showers, and gusty winds for a day from Sunday.

Highest in Asia: Basra(Iraq): 47c
Highest in India: Ramagundam: 44.6c

Much of the Indian Sub-Continent has seen the back of the severe Heat Wave. Incidently, Pakistan's highest was also 45c at Sibi.
 


 In fact we see some rain coming into Northern India from the west.The rain accumalation map of today shows some rain in the extreme north, (of which are discussing), in Kerala, coastal Karnataka, in patches in interior A.P., and some regions in the North-East.
Peshawar in Pakistan had the highest rainfall today of 74mms.

Mumbai Colaba had a high of 36.4c today and SantaCruz was 34.6c. With the minimum at 29.3c, its hot, humid and stuffy weather in Mumbai. But this was expected, and the "teasing" showers are going to maintain this sweaty weather in Mumbai till the 10th. of June.

6pm, Cyclone "Phet" , Where's it ?? Dissipating very very fast..?? .. http://ow.ly/i/1Ufz
6pm, Heavy thunder showers over Central Tamilnadu, Kerala, and central & N. Andhra... http://ow.ly/i/1Ufz
4:30pm, Showers over S-W coastal Karnataka, N_E Orissa, E.central Madyapradesh... http://ow.ly/i/1Uae
4:30pm, Heavy showers all over Kerala, scattered ALL over interior Tamilnadu and Andhra, Isolated over S. Chatisgarh.. http://ow.ly/i/1Uae
More showers over N, central and S. Andhra... now
WET MJO phase coming up for South India from 13-Jun-2010... http://ow.ly/i/1U7Z ... hopefully S-W monsoon peaks over S-W india at that time.
GFS models predict another Cyclone over Arabian sea .. moving towards Gujarat after 15-Jun.. http://ow.ly/i/1U7T ... This will pull monsoon
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 14... weakening fast over Oman ... http://ow.ly/1TZz3

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 14... weakening fast over Oman

JTWC warning
----------------------


040900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5N 59.4E. 
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS BECOME ASYMMETRICAL AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
NORTHERN OMAN AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON A 040424Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM PREVIOUS DVORAK ESTIMATES AND FROM
NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TURNING TO
THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHEAST, IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IRAN. BY TAU 12, TC 03A SHOULD MAKE IT BACK
OVER WATER INTO THE GULF OF OMAN AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THEN MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KARACHI, PAKISTAN
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INLAND BY TAU 72. ALL AVAILABLE NUMERIC MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THIS TRACK FORECAST WHICH
IS INITIALLY TO THE EAST OF AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS. THE BRIEF
TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY, AS
MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER,
THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE INCREASING VWS. THERE IS
AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE TC PHET WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE
NORTH AS IT BREAKS FREE FROM THE TUG OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. IN
THIS CASE, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW DOWN AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY TO
DISSIPATION AND/OR A SUCCEEDING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE SINAI PENINSULA, COMES ALONG TO PULL IT NORTHEAST.

JTWC projected path
------------------------------
Phet may not reach Pakistan


Satellite shot 
-------------------




South-west monsoon winds
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Due to Phet effect the S-W winds are seen reaching Gujarat Coast.
These winds will not sustain for more than 2 days, instead it'll consolidate over S-W coast of India.
Meanwhile heavy convective clouds can be seen over South Bay, so monsoon is active over South Andaman islands.

Maximum temperature would fall by 2-4°C over parts of northwest and west India.
A trough at mean sea levels runs from Orissa to South Tamil-Nadu across coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Rain map of 3-Jun... http://ow.ly/i/1U6T
Rain on 3-Jun, Guwahati-11, Carnicobar, Rangia-8, Gangtok,Goalpara-7, Dhubri,Tangla-6, Coach Beher-5, Agartala-4 CM
On 3-Jun, highest maximum temperature of 46.8°C was recorded at Sambalpur (Orissa).
Heat wave conditions are also prevailing over some parts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
Severe heat wave conditions are prevailing over isolated pockets of Orissa.
3pm, scattered thunder cells popping out over N, S and central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/1U6I
RT @h1n1_news_org: Woman dies of H1N1, alert in Kerala http://bit.ly/cwpo9z
3pm, Thunder storms over N-N-E Andhra, Orissa and Bangladesh.. http://ow.ly/i/1U6I
3pm, Cyclone "Phet" dissipating fast along mouth of Gulf-Oman ... http://ow.ly/i/1U6I
3pm, Heavy thunder showers all over Kerala into South & S-W coastal Karnataka... http://ow.ly/i/1U6I
Chennai - Pothys GREEN initiative ... http://ping.fm/DY2LA
RT @CurAbility: H1N1 SwineFlu News Woman dies of H1N1, alert issued in Kerala: http://url4.eu/42af0
Monsoon 11% below normal in week to June 2
Onset of monsoon, winter may see return of swine flu, say experts .... http://ow.ly/1TXQ8
Monsoon to tail Cyclone Phet ... http://ow.ly/1TXOY
RT @kaleshgopi: Rain starts in Kerala Coooool http://ping.fm/eXgqu (No idea when this was taken, but posted at 9:26am today)
RT @5Ass: Not only rain.. phet too RT @zeqox: the middle east countries are getting rains. will kerala turn to a desert and gulf turn green
Cyclone "Phet"... Good Satellite images ... http://ow.ly/1TWc1
Will monsoon winds get organised again over South India? When?... http://ow.ly/1TWbI
RT @rajugana: RT @weatherofindia: Baroda @ 9.45AM- Sunny, but dark passing clouds from SW.will it rain today !?
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 13.. Almost vanishing over Oman, predicted to move EAST... http://ow.ly/1TWas

Cyclone "Phet"... Good Satellite images

2-Jun-2010

3-Jun-2010

Tropical Cyclone Phet lingered over the Arabian Sea, off the coast of Oman, on June 3, 2010, although the storm’s wind speeds had dropped since the previous day. The U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Tropical Cyclone Phet had maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (195 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour). The storm was located roughly 220 nautical miles (410 kilometers) south-southeast of Masqat (Muscat), Oman.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this natural-color image on June 3, 2010. Phet stretches almost the entire length of Oman’s coastline, and extends hundreds of kilometers out to sea.
The JTWC forecast that the storm would weaken as it approached Oman, veer toward the east, and finally dissipate after making a second landfall north of Karachi, Pakistan.

Will monsoon winds get organised again? When?

Monsoon winds in lower latitude will NOT get organised till there is a sizable pressure gradient. Once Cyclone "PHET" is disintegrating there is every possibility that Pressure Gradient Force (PGF) and Coriolis balance will appear to form Geostrophic South-west winds.
RT @JenDelgadoCNN: Tropical Cyclone Phet will exit the coast of Oman coast late Friday/early Saturday AM. WIll weaken & head toward Pakistan
"THANKS" to all our readers & followers to attain more than 1 Lakh unique user visits to http://ping.fm/vxkue

Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 13.. Almost vanishing over Oman, predicted to move EAST

Almost vanishing over Oman. It's predicted to move EAST and intensify before hitting Pakistan.


JTWC warning
---------------------------------

040300Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 59.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MUSCAT, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 03A
HAS MADE LANDFALL INTO OMAN, AND HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TRACK
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS, INCREASING AS TC
03A MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. THIS IS A
SIGNIFICANT DEVIATION FROM MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
NGPS, GFS, GFDN, AND EGRR ALL INDICATE THAT TC 03A WILL TURN WEST-
WARD, AND LOITER OVER OMAN FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS NOT
LIKELY AS CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM IS STILL MOVING
QUICKLY TO THE NORTH AROUND THE STR. ECMF AND WBAR REMAIN THE ONLY
TWO MODELS THAT CURRENTLY SHOW A REASONABLE SOLUTION BASED ON THE
TRACK OF PHET, AND THIS FORECAST FAVORS THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. THE
BRIEF TRACK OVER OMAN WILL ONLY HAVE A MINIMAL IMPACT TO INTENSITY,
AS MOIST, WARM, OCEAN, WATER WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE SYSTEM,
HOWEVER, THE FAVORABLE INFLOW WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO WILL KEEP TC 03A ON A
SLOW WEAKENING TREND. LANDFALL IN PAKISTAN BY TAU 60 WILL CAUSE A
RAPID WEAKENING WITH COMPLETE DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 30 FEET. 



JTWC projected path
---------------------------------


IMD warning
------------------------

ARB 02/2010/28                                                                                                    Dated: 04.06.2010
Time of issue: 0830 hours IST

Sub:   Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ crossing Oman coast.

            The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved further northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, 4th June 2010 near latitude 21.50N and long. 59.50E very close to Oman coast, about 170 km south-southwest of Sur (Oman) and 150 km north-northeast of Masirah island (Oman) and 1050 km west-southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 950 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan),Latest observations indicate that system is now crossing Oman coast near lat. 21.5 degree N.           
            Available observations and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models guidance suggest that the system would move northward for some time while weakening gradually, then recurvenortheastwards and emerge into northwest Arabian Sea and move northeastwards Pakistan coast.
           
            Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:

Date/Time(IST)
Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E)
Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph)
04-06-2010/0530
21.5/59.5
120-130 gusting to 140
04-06-2010/1130
22.0/59.5
120-130 gusting to 140
04-06-2010/1730
22.5/59.5
110-120 gusting to 130
04-06-2010/2330
23.0/60.0
110-120 gusting to 130
05-06-2010/0530
23.5/60.5
100-110 gusting  to 120
05-06-2010/1730
24.0/62.0
90-100 gusting to 110
06-06-2010/0530
24.5/64.0
80-90 gusting to 100
06-06-.2010/1730
25.0/66.0
80-90 gusting to 100
07-06-.2010/0530
25.5/68.0
70-80 gusting to 90



           

Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls would occur over Saurashtra & Kutch during next 48 hrs. Squally winds with speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting 60 kmph would occur along and off Gujarat coast during same period. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Gujarat coast and adjoining north Arabian Sea. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea off this coast.



Satellite at 11am IST
-----------------------------------


South west monsoon over S-W India will pickup speed only after 10-Jun

At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, Cyclone "Phet" .... http://ow.ly/1TVRd

At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, Cyclone "Phet"

Friday, June 04, 2010


At 11.oo am IST, 4th. June, "Phet" is digging itself into the Gulf of Oman, at 21.5N and 59.2E, and its rain periphery is in a semi circular arc around Oman. At 956mb and 90 Knots winds, it is a force to reckon with. Enough has been repeated about its anticipitated course, and its forecasted movement towards the North-East. As we have discussed, it is lagging behind the W.D.which would have originally steered it Northeast,away from Oman,but now is left to be guided by another low aloft.This time the "new" low is not as effective as the one which was earliar supposed to have steered it eastwards.

The original W.D, which was supposed to guide the cyclone,moved into India on Wednesday,and precipitated rain in the states of Kashmir and H.P. Snow was also reported from the higher reaches of both the states.
In H.P, the Kangra valley was lashed by heavy rain accompanied by high velocity of winds this morning. The higher reaches of the Dhauladhar mountain range experienced snowfall, giving relief to the residents from scorching heat as the temperature dropped considerably.

Another factor, i would think about again is a little delay in the arrival of the MJO. According to the forecasts, given on this link, the MJO wave, which will bring the Monsoon current to the west coast alongwith it, is now expected around 15th.June. Earlier it was estimated to be around 10th. June. I hope the estimate is correct, as all hopes on the fast revival of the Monsoon current, for all of India,depends on this MJO wave.