Thursday, August 11, 2011
Can convective activity be termed as monsoon rain
Many a times it is given to note that during SWM period the cause of rain in Tamilnadu is referred to as convective. It is convective activity due to warm air advection during these rainy days. Most of the time Warm Air Advection [WAA] is inferred from radar products. Moist warm air from WEST after crossing western ghat gives rainfall from WEST to EAST in Tamilnadu. To day [11.08.2011 / 2200 hrs IST] it is evident from satellite imagery and DWR products that moist air is advecting and it may rain at S-SW /NW parts of Villupuram & Puducherry to night.
Wet cover hangs heavy over Gujarat, north-west
Monsoon has been vigorous over south Rajasthan and adjoining north Gujarat during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning as a land-based low-pressure area continued to give a good account of itself.
The rain deficit has been retained at four per cent even as India Meteorological Department (IMD) spoke about the possibility of more sustained rains over the region.
WET COVER
According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction, the heavy to very heavy wet cover could hang over the region into the third week of August. Konkan (including Mumbai), entire Gujarat and south Rajasthan would likely find themselves at the receiving end of the extended rains, which could even lead to flooding in some areas. Meanwhile on Wednesday, the western end of the monsoon trough lay south of its normal position whereas the eastern end is near its normal position. This would ensure that the monsoon would continue to remain active with the embedded low pressure area and cyclonic circulation through the weekend.
CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Kalpana-1 satellite cloud picture on Wednesday afternoon showed helpful convective clouds rising over parts of south Rajasthan, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, east and northeast India, north Bay of Bengal, north Andaman Sea and northeast and southeast Arabian Sea. The land-based ‘low' was traced to over southwest Rajasthan on Wednesday evening while an upper air cyclonic circulation over Jharkhand and neighbourhood lent its weight to the eastern side to hold the monsoon trough in balance.
Thus the trough passed through the centre of the ‘low in the west, Jhansi, Allahabad, Gaya, Bankura, Digha before dipping into east-central Bay of Bengal. The offshore trough ran down from Gujarat coast but had slightly shifted away from Kerala coast to Lakshadweep area.
RAINS FORECAST
A short-term IMD outlook valid until Saturday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would break out over Gujarat, Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over south Rajasthan on Thursday and scattered thereafter.
It would be fairly widespread over the North-eastern States, the remaining parts of east and northwest India and along the west coast. Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over central India and isolated over interior parts of peninsular India.
COLA suggests more showers for Coastal Kerala, Coastal Karnataka and Tamilnadu for next 24 hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/fB6M
Already we have signs of N.Bay fresh circulation meanwhile N-W India UAC is over W. Rajasthan .. http://ow.ly/i/fAUz
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 1.20pm, Dark clouds from SW and heavy rain now a pic http://t.co/wNWFde0
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