Cyclone "01 B" .. Update #2

JTWC
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180300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 85.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT TC 01B HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL EXTENT. A 172338Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN 
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARING WESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND KNES AS WELL AS THE 171600Z ASCAT 25 KM IMAGE SHOWING 35-KNOT 
UNFLAGGED WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. TC 01B IS TRACKING 
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE (STR) AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN RE-CURVE NORTH 
TO NORTHEASTWARD AS THE STR RE-ORIENTS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING 
MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER CENTRAL INDIA 
AFTER TAU 48. THE MAJORITY OF THE AVAILABLE MODELS (NOGAPS, GFS, 
EGRR AND ECMWF) SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. THE GFDN AND WBAR INDICATE A 
MORE WESTWARD TRACK. TC 01B IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A 15-20 KNOT 
RATE, THROUGH TAU 72, UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING GOOD 
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND HIGH SST/OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT 
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 
181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.

Satellite shot at 7:30am IST
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JTWC projected path
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