Readings as on 20th. May:
Hottest in Asia : Nawabshah (Pakistan):48c
Hottest in India: Akola: 47.1cHottest Nights:Jodhpur:32.0c,Satna: 31.8c, Jaisalmer: 31.2c
Mumbai:Colaba:34.8c,S'Cruz:34.0c.Thane(AWS) 36.7c
Update on "Laila":http://rajesh26.blogspot.com
Thursday, May 20, 2010
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 .. Started moving North-East
IMD warning at 17:30hrs IST
----------------------------------------
JTWC projected path
----------------------------------
JTWC warning
------------------------
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------
----------------------------------------
The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 near latitude 15.80N and long.80.50E close to Bapatla (Andhra Pradesh). The latest observations at 1630 hours IST suggest that the system is now crossing the coast close to Bapatla.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to weaken gradually and move initially in a northerly direction and then recurve in northeasterly direction towards Orissa.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal : Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over south Orissa from today, the 20th May and GangeticWest Bengal. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system into north Bay of Bengal . In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.
Next bulletin will be issued at 2030 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010.
JTWC projected path
----------------------------------
JTWC warning
------------------------
201500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 FROM PGTW, DEMS, AND KNES. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z, 210300Z, 210900Z AND 211500Z
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------
RT @orissafeed: RT @TCNNews Rescue teams conduct drills in Orissa over cyclone Laila: By IANS,
Bhubaneswar ... http://bit.ly/a5vlEK
Bhubaneswar ... http://bit.ly/a5vlEK
RT @EcoSeed: Less greenhouse emissions this year from European companies http://bit.ly/dc5PFb carbontrading emissionreduction
RT @piyush_veere: http://ping.fm/lizZL - light showers again,in patna.see kids playing with paperboat in rain water. @weatherofindia
Expected N-E movement of Laila will bring the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast, as expected by some MODELS on 23-May... http://ow.ly/1NwNg
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 16 .. Laila Inland over Andhra.
JTWC warning
---------------------------
JTWC projected path
------------------------------
Satellite shot
-----------------------
The weakened laila system will now take the path suggested by JTWC as it is in the grip of strong S-W to N-E Upper air current.
This N-E movement will surely bring the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast, as expected by some MODELS on 23-May.
IMD warning: 13:30 hrs
--------------------------------------
---------------------------
200900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0N 80.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY FROM CHENNAI AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND FROM A RADAR VELOCITY PRODUCT FROM CHENNAI. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 72 AND ACCELERATE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTH-EASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z.
JTWC projected path
------------------------------
Satellite shot
-----------------------
The weakened laila system will now take the path suggested by JTWC as it is in the grip of strong S-W to N-E Upper air current.
This N-E movement will surely bring the S-W monsoon over Kerala coast, as expected by some MODELS on 23-May.
IMD warning: 13:30 hrs
--------------------------------------
The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 l near latitude 15.70N and long. 80.50E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 30 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla between 2-4 pm of today.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & East Godavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa and Gangetic WestBengal from today, the 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.
RT @shuvankr: All forecast stands invalid as it is completely inland. http://ping.fm/gRXKV Cyclone Laila makes landfall, 2PM picture.
RT @piyush_veere: http://ping.fm/I8Odf - -Now We r experiencing duststorm in patna.Strong winds from south with lots of dark clouds
Rain map of 19-May... Massive showers along Andhra coast , Kerala coast and over N-E states .. http://ow.ly/i/1EAQ
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 17 ... Now over land
IMD Warning
------------------------
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
IMD observed track & projected path
-------------------------------------------------
Satellite shot at 1pm IST
--------------------------------------
Showing signs of weakening
------------------------
Time of issue: 1130 hours IST
The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.50N and long. 80.50E, about 50 km east of Ongole, 50 km south of Bapatla and 70 km south-southwest of Machilipatnam.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast about 50 km southwest of Machilipatnam, close to Bapatla by today, the 20th May 2010 afternoon.
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana during next 36 hours. Gale force wind with speed reaching 100-110kmph gusting to 120 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea off this coast.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & EastGodavari districts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage to thatch roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: Enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastalOrissa and Gangetic West Bengal from today, the 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
According to NWP model prediction, there is possibility of emergence of the system again into the sea. In that case, the system may intensify again over the sea. However, the system is under the constant watch and monitoring.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1430 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010.
IMD observed track & projected path
-------------------------------------------------
Satellite shot at 1pm IST
--------------------------------------
Showing signs of weakening
RT @nseEODtips: Monsoon on track despite cyclone - Met office
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
RT @nseEODtips: Monsoon on track despite cyclone - Met office
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
RT @nseEODtips: Monsoon on track despite cyclone - Met office
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
(Reuters): Reuters ... http://bit.ly/dbLdzG
RT @dna: 40,000 people evacuated in Andhra Pradesh, cyclone shows signs of weakening http://bit.ly/cztf38
RT @webmedia_yas: RT @TOIIndiaNews: Cyclone Laila inches closer to Andhra coast http://toi.in/aJMCmK
@gurucharan >> Check this FULL list of past & future Cyclone names, maintained by NOAA .. http://ow.ly/1NtFe
Cyclone "01 B" - "Laila" ... Update # 16
JTWC path
--------------------------
JTWC warning
---------------------------
Satellite shot at 11am IST
-----------------------------------
--------------------------
JTWC warning
---------------------------
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.
Satellite shot at 11am IST
-----------------------------------
Cyclone "01 B" .. Update # 15 ... Very near to Andhra coast
JTWC warning
--------------------------
JTWC projected path
----------------------------------
IMD warning
-----------------------
IMD projected path
--------------------------------
Latest satellite shot 7:30am IST
----------------------------------------------
South-west Monsoon
-------------------------------
We can see monsoon clouds over S-W Srilanka and very near to S-W coast of Kerala. As expected monsoon will break over Kerala on 21 or 22-May or Even today.
This showers may last till 27-May, then there'll be a break before the FULL fledged S-W monsoon current breaks in over entire Kerala coast around 30-May.
--------------------------
200300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 81.0E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (LAILA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 192330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192020Z AMSR-E PASS SHOWING A DISTINCT LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS, AND CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN THE AMSR-E IMAGE. TC 01B CONTINUES TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS STEERING RIDGE DURING THE UPCOMING 24 HOURS AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS TC 01B FOLLOWS THIS PATH IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN ANDHRA PRADESH AND WEAKEN. HOWEVER, A FORMIDABLE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL AFTER TAU 48 AND ACCELERATE EAST- NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER OR NEAR SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS, WHICH DEPICTS UNLIKELY RAPID WEAKENING AND SUBSEQUENT ERRATIC MOTION BEGINNING ALMOST IMMEDIATELY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
JTWC projected path
----------------------------------
IMD warning
-----------------------
The severe cyclonic storm ‘LAILA’ over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved northwards and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010 over westcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 15.00N and long. 81.00E, about 120 km northeast of Nellore, 100 km southeast of Ongole and 120 km south of Machilipatnam.
The current environmental conditions and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system is likely to move in a northwesterly to northerly direction and cross Andhra Pradesh coast between Kavali and Kakinada
Under the influence of this system, widespread rainfall with scattered heavy to very heavy falls and isolated extremely heavy falls (25 cms or more) is likely over coastal Andhra Pradesh during next 36 hours. Fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is likely over north TamilNadu during next 24 hours. Gale force wind with Maximum speed reaching 100-110 kmph likely along and off Andhra Pradesh coast at the time of landfall. Squally winds speed reaching 50-60 kmph is likely along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during next 24 hours.
Sea condition will be very high along and off Andhra Pradesh coast during next 24 hours and very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu coast during the same period. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea off these coasts.
Storm surge of 1.5 to 2 metres above the astronomical tide is likely to inundate the coastal areas of Guntur , Krishna and West & East Godavaridistricts of Andhra Pradesh at the time of landfall.
Damage expected: (Nellore , Prakasham, Guntur , Krishna, West & East Godavari and Vishakhapatnam districts): Extensive damage tothatched roofs and huts. Damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Action suggested: Total suspension of fishing operation. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors in the above districts.
Forecast for Orissa and West Bengal: According to NWP model predictions, the system is likely to move northeastwards across Orissa andWest Bengal after the landfall. The enhanced rainfall activity with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely to occur over coastal Orissa andGangetic West Bengal from today, the 20th May and 21st May respectively for subsequent 48 hours. Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmphlikely to commence along and off Orissa and West Bengal coast respectively from 20th and 21st May 2010 evening. Fishermen are advised to be cautious while going out into the sea off these coasts.
Next bulletin will be issued at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 20th May 2010.
IMD projected path
--------------------------------
Latest satellite shot 7:30am IST
----------------------------------------------
South-west Monsoon
-------------------------------
We can see monsoon clouds over S-W Srilanka and very near to S-W coast of Kerala. As expected monsoon will break over Kerala on 21 or 22-May or Even today.
This showers may last till 27-May, then there'll be a break before the FULL fledged S-W monsoon current breaks in over entire Kerala coast around 30-May.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)