Sunday, January 05, 2014

Mid level W.D trough is now over N,N-W India, and moisture seen over central,E-central, East India ... 
Present W.D is expected to move away in next 24hrs.
Rain/snow expected for Kashmir, Himachal during next 24hrs.
Scattered moderate / light rain expected over E Madhyapradesh, E Uttarpradesh and into Bihar, N,central Jharkhand in 36hrs.

Today, FOG seen over most of Haryana, W,N Uttarpradesh, and E Rajasthan.
And COLD wave persists over N India.
Adampur (Punjab) records a low temp of 0.6 C.
A strong W.D system is expected to reach N,N-W India on 7/8-Jan.

01B - Nearing N-N-E Srilanka coast.

Analysis suggest a good system with less convective activity.
Present position is 9.3N, 81.7E.
Pressure dropped to 993mb according US NAVY analysis, but ADT analysis suggest pressure around 1006mb.
Wind analysis at 5:30am suggest a good wind wrapping around the center.

Visible at 9:30am suggests, good convective activity over its N-W quadrant, exposed center and less activity over other quadrants.

Most of the models agree to W-S-W movement from now on, making landfall along N-N-E Srilanka by tonight and the remnant to emerge over Gulf of Mannar.
HEAVY rain and high winds upto 60kmph expected over most of N,N-E Srilanka during next 24 to 36 hrs.
Moderate rain, high winds expected over Karaikal to Rameswaram zone during next 24hrs.
Scattered Heavy rain expected along Gulf of Mannar belt and into S,S-central Tamilnadu from evening of Monday.
Latest GFS model suggests HEAVY to VERY Heavy rain for Tuticorin, Tirunelvelli and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu on Monday night, Tuesday and even into Wednesday.