9pm, Cyclone Thane is tracking W-S-W for the past 6 hrs .. position now is 12:02:50 N and 83:41:11 E

@nravs >> chennai - Showers and wind for city will start from morning of 29-Dec... initially it'll be drizzles or short sharp showers.

Cyclone "Thane" - Very severe Cyclone now and Chennai may miss the direct hit! ... http://ow.ly/8cbAD

Latest track and projected path suggests that Chennai may miss a direct hit, but Pondicherry is in line of fire! ... http://ow.ly/8cbyK

Cyclone "Thane" - Very severe Cyclone now and Chennai may miss the direct hit!

Position, 8pm :: 12:33:07 N and 84:13:30 E
Winds :: 125 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 981mb
Latest track and projected path suggests that Chennai may miss a direct hit, but Pondicherry is in line of fire!
Very severe cyclone now, and will make landfall with Cyclone strength.

Latest satellite IR shot, 8pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
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281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 281208Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVED, THOUGH 
ASYMMETRICAL EYEWALL WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH 
DECREASING VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND, BASED ON THE SSMIS 
IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED 
TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM KNES AND 
PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED 
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING QUICKLY AND 
PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING 
THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT 
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD 
INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS 
THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD 
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BUT COULD 
INTENSIFY AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 75-80 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS 
THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06B WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL 
OCCUR THEREAFTER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
281200Z IS 22 FEET.

IMD warning, 7:30pm
-----------------------------------------------------------

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message.

The severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 84.5⁰E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Chennai wind speeds above 0.3km height above sea level has picked up considerably, clocking up to 65 km/Hr. Soon ground winds will also pick-up strength.

@srinisan >> Elaborate weather report about Cyclone Thane coming up in 15 min

RT @smrithil: Chennai.. Here comes Thane.. Be prepared!

chennai - city gets its first Rain drops due to Cyclone Thane .. light drizzles coming from North

chennai , ALL along N.coastal Tamilnadu - Sharp showers and strong drizzles expected towards early morning of 29-Dec.

RT @sirajsoft: Cyclone already in Chennai ?? heavy winds and drizzles in Velachery @weatherofindia

Dense fog conditions (visibility to 100 m) would occur over some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and W. Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours

chennai - Along coast, Winds have picked up strength to 50km/Hr from 0.3 Km to 3.3km above sea level... http://ow.ly/i/oxsG

Showers can be seen around 250km east of chennai ... 7pm

As per latest movement of Cyclone Thane ... it'll make landfall South of chennai around Pondicherry or Mahabalipuram

6pm, Latest satellite IR shot of Cyclone Thane ... http://ow.ly/i/oxnT

Cyclone Thane .. in past 3 hrs it has slightly moved W-S-W... now (6pm) positioned at 11:51:00 N and 83:57:54 E

Cyclone Thane is now (6pm) a Severe Cyclone (or) a Category 1 Cyclone .. with wind speeds upto 120km/Hr

Cyclone Thane .. present 4pm position.. 12:15:00 N and 84:54:06 E ... almost NO movement for the past 3hrs

A moderate W.D is affecting N,N-W kashmir and will continue till 31-Dec... moderate Snow possible over entire N. Kashmir

On 27-Dec, lowest minimum temperature of ­-1.4 C has been recorded at Amritsar (Punjab)

Cold wave conditions are prevailing over  some parts of Punjab, southwest Haryana,
north Rajasthan and north Madhya Pradesh

Fog/dense  fog  in morning  hours  has  been  observed  over  some parts of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Uttar  Pradesh

chennai - Going to have a DRY and breezy night with drizzles expected towards morning of 29-Dec

Cyclone Thane, NOW almost ALL GFS models suggest a Near chennai landfall as Cyclone on early hours of 30-Dec

Cyclone "Thane" - Intensified now! and tracking West! ... http://ow.ly/8bTnO

chennai - experiencing stiff winds from N-W for the past 1 hr.. http://ow.ly/8bTkJ

Cyclone "Thane" - Intensified now! and tracking West!

Position, 3pm :: 12:03:00 N , 84:42:09 E
Winds :: 95 Km/hr
Pressure :: 991mb
Now COLA GFS model also agrees to near Chennai landfall on early hrs of 30-Dec as a Cyclone.
Chennai is experiencing Stiff winds from N-N-W for the past 1hr.
IMD expects that "probability of slight weakening before landfall"

Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
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IMD warning, 1:30pm
----------------------------------------------------

Sub : Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message

The cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 85.0⁰E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS), EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS 
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. A 280256Z 
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. THE 
SSMIS IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED SLIGHTLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM 
THE SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING 
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL 
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN 
BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE 
WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, 
ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW 
WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE 
SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY THE GOOD OUTFLOW. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET.

Cyclone "Thane" .. still crawling W-N-W .. position at 12pm is 12:19:06 N and 84:31:13 E >> having winds upto 95km/Hr

Report of 12.30 pm (IST) Wednesday.
As the ridge deepens, "Thane" moves due west. Moved marginally west in last 6 hrs, and is 550 kms due west of Chennai. Convection increases in the SW quadrant. Clouds at phenomenal height, with top at -85c ! Pressure at 992, but winds raging at 100 kmph. Seas getting rough.

Could strike by Friday, slightly North of Chennai, possibly at current strength.

chennai - Today will touch a max of 30 deg C and will be DRY. Mild to stiff breeze expected from North!

INFO :: chennai - latitude and longitude is 13° 04' N, 80° 17' E

AWEFUL Cyclone THANE :: Prevention and Mitigation ... http://ow.ly/8bGNv

Here's the latest projected path by JTWC, 5:30am .. http://ow.ly/i/ovYz

Cyclone "Thane" - Slowly Moving W-N-W and intensifying !! chennai may get a direct hit on early hrs of 30-Dec .. http://ow.ly/8bGHq

chennai - having clear skies now 8:33am, records a low of 21.4 C (5:54am)

Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone - As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane ... http://ow.ly/8bGx2

Cyclone "Thane" - Slowly Moving W-N-W and intensifying !!

Position, 7:30am :: 12:36:21 N , 85:21:06 E
Pressure :: 991mb
Winds :: 95 Km/Hr
Chennai may get a direct hit on early hrs of 30-Dec, but the system may be a Deep Depression at the time of landfall !! Next 24hrs will decide the strength.


Latest satellite IR shot,
-----------------------------------------------------------

IMD warning, 7:30am
-----------------------------------------------------------

 Cyclonic Storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 86.0⁰E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards slowly, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore around morning of 30^th December 2011.

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30am
--------------------------------------------------------------
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A 
CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL 
SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING 
COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 
TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE 
RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN 
EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER 
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING 
ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS 
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF 
GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.

Recall of 1994 Severe cyclone - As Chennai fears from a Severe Cyclone Thane

Anyone has memory of 1994 Severe Cyclone that crossed Chennai) – It was the destructive cyclone to hit Chennai in last 20 years or even more.

This cyclone i witnessed it first hand…..to me this created havoc in Chennai. 24 cm rainfall in 24hrs coupled with 120 km/hr winds…. The cyclone scared the shit out of me. I watched the high winds with power cut without sleep. Still its scary. Hope Cyclone Thane doesnot make any destruction like this.

http://tamilnaduweatherman.blogspot.com/2011/12/recall-of-1994-cyclone-as-chennai-fears.html