Tuesday, July 10, 2018

July 10, 2018 at 07:02PM


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Monday, July 09, 2018

July 09, 2018 at 06:12PM


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July 09, 2018 at 06:02PM


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July 09, 2018 at 05:41PM


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July 09, 2018 at 03:46PM


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July 09, 2018 at 03:38PM


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Thursday, June 28, 2018

June 28, 2018 at 05:04PM


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June 28, 2018 at 04:57PM


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June 28, 2018 at 04:44PM


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June 28, 2018 at 03:45PM


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June 28, 2018 at 03:34PM


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Monday, June 25, 2018

June 25, 2018 at 09:53PM


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June 25, 2018 at 08:25PM


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Thursday, June 21, 2018

June 21, 2018 at 05:52PM


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June 21, 2018 at 05:19PM


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June 21, 2018 at 05:05PM


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June 21, 2018 at 03:53PM


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Friday, June 15, 2018

June 15, 2018 at 06:45PM


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June 15, 2018 at 03:05PM


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Thursday, June 14, 2018

June 14, 2018 at 06:16PM


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June 14, 2018 at 06:07PM


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June 14, 2018 at 05:54PM


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June 14, 2018 at 04:50PM


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Monday, June 11, 2018

June 11, 2018 at 07:20AM


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Saturday, June 09, 2018

June 09, 2018 at 02:16PM


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June 09, 2018 at 02:12PM


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Thursday, June 07, 2018

June 07, 2018 at 05:41PM


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Wednesday, June 06, 2018

June 06, 2018 at 11:39PM


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June 06, 2018 at 11:35PM


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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

May 29, 2018 at 01:27PM


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Sunday, May 27, 2018

May 27, 2018 at 11:21AM


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May 27, 2018 at 11:06AM


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Friday, May 25, 2018

May 25, 2018 at 07:12PM


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May 25, 2018 at 07:07PM


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May 25, 2018 at 06:58PM


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Thursday, May 24, 2018

May 24, 2018 at 11:27PM


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May 24, 2018 at 11:21PM


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May 24, 2018 at 11:19PM


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May 24, 2018 at 10:52PM


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May 24, 2018 at 10:41PM


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Wednesday, May 23, 2018

May 23, 2018 at 03:44PM


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May 23, 2018 at 03:02PM


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Tuesday, May 22, 2018

May 22, 2018 at 07:53PM


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May 22, 2018 at 07:47PM


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May 21, 2018 at 10:56PM


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Monday, May 21, 2018

May 21, 2018 at 07:53PM


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Sunday, May 20, 2018

Monsoon Watch-4 Published with Quantum Forecast...www.vagaries.in

May 20, 2018 at 06:44PM

Saturday, May 19, 2018

May 19, 2018 at 12:58PM


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May 19, 2018 at 12:47PM


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May 19, 2018 at 12:34PM


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May 19, 2018 at 12:11PM


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May 19, 2018 at 12:00PM


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Tuesday, May 15, 2018

South West Monsoon 2018 - Update #1 Parameters Check

Central,NW India heat LOW
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As of now, the minimum pressure is around 1000 mb over NW India and into Central Pakistan. This should be around 998mb at this time of year. An upper-level WD trough is expected to touch N Pakistan and Kashmir during next 7 days, so this can marginally affect the heating over North India.  This LOW is expected to deepen slightly to 998mb during next 8 days.

Mascarene HIGH pressure system and Cross Equatorial Winds
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~



At present the HIGH pressure over South Indian Ocean is WEAK around 1020mb and models suggest that the HIGH is not expected to materialize to around 1030mb during next 7 days.
This is why only weak cross equatorial winds are reaching Somalia coast and almost nothing crossing into South Bay. 

SST
~~~~~~~~

The Sea surface temperature along Somali coast has not started dropping below 28 C, meaning, the Somali low-level Jet is not present. Once the cross equatorial winds pickup, the Somali coast should see a drastic drop in Sea surface temperature. 

Bay Low and Arabian sea Low
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

The April month LOW over Bay has not materialized and it seems Bay is not in a mood to host one during next 10 days either. Instead, Arabian sea is expected to pop a LOW , circulation on 21-May.
Both, GFS and ECMWF are suggesting a Low over S-central Bay on 22-May and then intensifying into a Cyclone and moving NW.
This system will disturb the Bay Monsoon onset, as of now, it's not showing ANY sign of Monsoon onset over S,SE Bay and over South Islands of Andamans before 25-May.

LWD and North-South trough
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

At present LWD seen along W-ghats from S-tip Tamilnadu to NW Karnataka and along NE Andhra to SW,W Bengal , this is creating Afternoon, evening Thunder showers (pre-monsoon showers).

The seasonal N-S trough at low-levels from Bihar to S,SE Tamilnadu along SE coast of India should be well marked at this time of year, but it's not. At present the N-S trough can be seen as a mini N-S trough from S Madhyapradesh to E,central Andhra. Around 22-May, this is expected to align to the expected position.

Forecast for June, July and August
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
This is just for future reference purpose only !
JAMSTEC long range forecast indicates GOOD rainfall for SW,W coast of India during June, July and August.

And, CFS monthly forecast suggests the totally opposite. LESS, DEFICIENT rainfall during July, August for entire SW,W coast of India.
Let's see !!

Good MJO till 1st week of June
----------------------------------------------

A good MJO phase is now moving into Arabian sea and will be over entire North Indian ocean , Arabian sea and South Bay till 1st week of June.
This is good for Monsoon onset !
This may be a reason for upcoming Arabian sea circulation around 22nd May.

Monsoon onset over South Andamans and SE,S Bay may get delayed and pushed beyond 25th May.
Monsoon onset over South Kerala can be around 2/3-June.

Thursday, May 10, 2018

Monday, May 07, 2018

Sunday, May 06, 2018

Friday, May 04, 2018

May 04, 2018 at 07:48PM


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Thursday, May 03, 2018

Monsoon Watch -3 Part 1...2018
www.vagaries.in

May 02, 2018 at 11:18PM


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May 02, 2018 at 11:07PM


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Wednesday, May 02, 2018

May 02, 2018 at 03:51PM


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Thursday, April 26, 2018

April 26, 2018 at 04:13PM


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April 26, 2018 at 04:05PM


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April 26, 2018 at 03:54PM


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April 26, 2018 at 03:17PM


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Sunday, April 22, 2018

Monsoon Watch -2 
www.vagaries.in

Friday, April 20, 2018

April 20, 2018 at 04:55PM


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April 20, 2018 at 03:25PM


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April 20, 2018 at 03:17PM


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April 20, 2018 at 03:12PM


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April 20, 2018 at 03:08PM


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April 20, 2018 at 01:26PM

Sunday, April 15, 2018

April 15, 2018 at 07:44PM


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Saturday, April 14, 2018

April 13, 2018 at 10:56PM


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April 13, 2018 at 10:40PM


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Thursday, April 12, 2018

April 12, 2018 at 07:30PM


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April 12, 2018 at 07:18PM


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Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Monday, April 09, 2018

April 09, 2018 at 04:19PM


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April 09, 2018 at 03:58PM


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April 09, 2018 at 03:51PM


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Friday, April 06, 2018

April 06, 2018 at 06:11PM


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April 06, 2018 at 04:40PM


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April 06, 2018 at 04:35PM


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April 06, 2018 at 04:23PM


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Thursday, April 05, 2018

April 05, 2018 at 04:47PM


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April 05, 2018 at 04:36PM


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April 05, 2018 at 04:27PM


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April 05, 2018 at 04:21PM


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April 05, 2018 at 04:11PM


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Sunday, April 01, 2018

April 01, 2018 at 09:29PM


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April 01, 2018 at 09:26PM


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April 01, 2018 at 09:19PM


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April 01, 2018 at 09:04PM


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April 01, 2018 at 08:59PM


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Wednesday, March 28, 2018

March 28, 2018 at 07:03PM


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March 28, 2018 at 06:54PM


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March 28, 2018 at 06:49PM


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