Wednesday, June 02, 2010
Wind speed estimation for Cyclone "Phet"
Only when IMD says it has crossed 220km/hr then only it will be named as supercyclone
current intensity of phet
NRL
—————
Best status from NRL: 110kts 941 mb
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
—————————-
Pressure/ Vmax
924.4mb/117.4kt
IMD
——–
But according IMD the pressure about 980mb.
JTWC
———
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS
posted by Pradeep
current intensity of phet
NRL
—————
Best status from NRL: 110kts 941 mb
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
—————————-
Pressure/ Vmax
924.4mb/117.4kt
IMD
——–
But according IMD the pressure about 980mb.
JTWC
———
THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED
AT 110 KNOTS
posted by Pradeep
7:30pm, Heavy thunder storms all along western Ghats and towards coast from Maharastra to Kerala.... http://ow.ly/i/1SlV
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 9.. Very near to Oman
Too close to Oman.
Still moving in North-West direction and NO sign of re-curve.
The system should re-curve in another 6 hrs or crash over Oman in another 24 hrs.
JTWC warning
--------------------------------
JTWC projected path
--------------------------------
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------
Still moving in North-West direction and NO sign of re-curve.
The system should re-curve in another 6 hrs or crash over Oman in another 24 hrs.
JTWC warning
--------------------------------
021500Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 59.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 125 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 127 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED 30 NM EYE. A MID- LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PROVIDING A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ONTO THE COAST OF OMAN BY TAU 36, WHERE IT SHOULD SLOW AND WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER LAND. IT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RECURVE AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED. TC PHET SHOULD THEN ENTER BACK OVER THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA BY TAU 72 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS. TC 03A WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF INTENSIFICATION DUE TO HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SHOULD REACH THE COAST OF PAKISTAN BY TAU 96. TC PHET WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A SPLIT BETWEEN THE FASTER RECURVERS (UKMO, ECMWF, WBAR) AND THOSE THAT ARE SLOWER (GFDN, GFS, NOGAPS), TAKING THE SYSTEM OVER OMAN. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH A SLOWER RECURVE TO THE EAST. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE MODELS SLOWER TO RECURVE AND IS SIMILAR TO MODEL CONSENSUS, TAKING TC 03A OVER OMAN AND WEAKENING IT SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021200Z IS 27 FEET.
JTWC projected path
--------------------------------
Satellite shot at 7pm IST
-----------------------------------------
Category:
Cyclones,
India,
JTWC,
South West Monsoon
RT @abnashbudhani: foto taken after the heavy rainfall in aurangabad at around 6.45 pm http://ping.fm/6zT4Y @weatherofindia
"Phet" Update: 6pm IST
"Phet" Update: 6pm IST
"PHET" has strengthened further to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the last 6 hours. Current location is 18.2N 60.0E about 300 Kms South East of Oman Coast. Winds are at 125 Knots with Central pressure of about 929 Mb. The Wave height is 7 meters. Defying all predictions, of re-curving at 62E, it has moved North-Northwest continuously, and has progressed towards Oman. It is expected to strengthen further and track mainly North- Northwestwards direction for the next 24 to 36 hours. Now, it is expected to initially strike the North-Eastern coast of Oman in the next 24 hrs.
The re-curving promise holds good still. After striking Oman, the storm is predicted to move North-East back into the Arabian Sea. The influence of Western Disturbance has to be watched carefully to see how this system tracks after 36 hours. Various Forecast models are differing on the final track "PHET.''
It is important for all Arabian Sea coastline countries from Oman, Iran, Pakistan & India to be watchful and closely monitor "PHET" for any track changes.
Saurashtra & Gujarat:
Even though "Phet" is more than 1100 Kms. from Saurashtra Coast, due to the Intensity of this system, we can expect windy conditions and scattered rains in pockets for Saurashtra due to the the moisture incursion from Arabian Sea..
Oman:
"PHET" is only 300 Kms South-East of Oman Coast and due to the proximity precautions about very windy conditions as well as flash flooding due to rains need to be taken. Most Forecast models are expecting a Recurve North Eastwards after 36 hours.
"PHET" has strengthened further to Very Severe Cyclonic Storm during the last 6 hours. Current location is 18.2N 60.0E about 300 Kms South East of Oman Coast. Winds are at 125 Knots with Central pressure of about 929 Mb. The Wave height is 7 meters. Defying all predictions, of re-curving at 62E, it has moved North-Northwest continuously, and has progressed towards Oman. It is expected to strengthen further and track mainly North- Northwestwards direction for the next 24 to 36 hours. Now, it is expected to initially strike the North-Eastern coast of Oman in the next 24 hrs.
The re-curving promise holds good still. After striking Oman, the storm is predicted to move North-East back into the Arabian Sea. The influence of Western Disturbance has to be watched carefully to see how this system tracks after 36 hours. Various Forecast models are differing on the final track "PHET.''
It is important for all Arabian Sea coastline countries from Oman, Iran, Pakistan & India to be watchful and closely monitor "PHET" for any track changes.
Saurashtra & Gujarat:
Even though "Phet" is more than 1100 Kms. from Saurashtra Coast, due to the Intensity of this system, we can expect windy conditions and scattered rains in pockets for Saurashtra due to the the moisture incursion from Arabian Sea..
Oman:
"PHET" is only 300 Kms South-East of Oman Coast and due to the proximity precautions about very windy conditions as well as flash flooding due to rains need to be taken. Most Forecast models are expecting a Recurve North Eastwards after 36 hours.
Category:
Cyclones
The NLM
The 'VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STROM [VSCS]' PHET enabled SWM winds to attain the maximum northern limit of monsoon. [Even the phraseology VSCS is changed after Orissa Super cyclone in 1999.] This will help monsoon wind to blow anywhere once the PHET ceased to exist. This will lead to more variability of rainfall in space and time. At this rate Kerala and Karnataka may NOT get their due share for the month of June (or even the rest of monsoon period). It is true that each year the SWM is different and no two SWM pattern is unique. After all it is RAINFALL that the monsoon's activity and strength is measured as VIGOROUS, ACTIVE, NORMAL OR WEAK.
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 8.. Very Severe Cyclone nearing Oman coast
Still moving in a North-West direction
While whole west coast of India is getting heavy thunder showers from Afternoon.
IMD warning
--------------------------
Satellite shot at 5pm IST
------------------------------------
While whole west coast of India is getting heavy thunder showers from Afternoon.
IMD warning
--------------------------
ARB 02/2010/15 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 1700 hours IST
Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea .
The very severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea moved northwestwards and lay centred at 1430 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 near latitude 18.00N and long. 60.50E, about 1250 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1050 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1050 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 530 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours, close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
02-06-2010/1430 | 18.0/60.5 | 140-150 gusting to 160 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.0/60.5 | 150-160 gusting to 170 |
02-06-2010/2330 | 18.5/60.0 | 160-170 gusting to 185 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 19.0/59.5 | 170-180 gusting to 195 |
03-06-2010/1130 | 19.5/59.5 | 180-190 gusting to 205 |
03-06-2010/2330 | 20.5/59.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-2010/1130 | 22.5/60.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-.2010/2330 | 23.5/63.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
05-06-.2010/1130 | 24.5/66.5 | 200-210 gusting to 225 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Saurashtra & Kutch from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Gale winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea. Fishermen who are in the open sea should return to the coast by 3rd evening.
Satellite shot at 5pm IST
------------------------------------
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
India
Rainfall data from 1-Jan-2010 to 1-Jun-2010
Cherrapunji crosses 5000 mm in style with a 242.6mm rainfall
India toppers from 1.1.10 to 01.06.10 ———————————–—————–
Cherrapunji 514 cm
Silchar 163 cm
Passighat 156 cm
Itanagar 124 cm
Dibrugarh 123 cm
Dhubri 118 cm
Gangtok 116 cm
North Lakhimpur 112 cm
Coochbehar 91 cm
Guwahati 85 cm
Lengpui 82 cm
TN toppers from 1.1.10 to 01.06.10
——————————————————
Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) – 59 cm
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 49 cm
Thalli (Krishnagiri dt) – 38 cm
Kodaikanal (Dindigul dt)– 36 cm
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 34 cm
Boothapandi (Kanyakumari dt) – 31 cm
Andipatti (Theni dt) – 27 cm
Posted by Pradeep
India toppers from 1.1.10 to 01.06.10 ———————————–—————–
Cherrapunji 514 cm
Silchar 163 cm
Passighat 156 cm
Itanagar 124 cm
Dibrugarh 123 cm
Dhubri 118 cm
Gangtok 116 cm
North Lakhimpur 112 cm
Coochbehar 91 cm
Guwahati 85 cm
Lengpui 82 cm
TN toppers from 1.1.10 to 01.06.10
——————————————————
Pechiparai (Kanyakumari dt) – 59 cm
Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt) – 49 cm
Thalli (Krishnagiri dt) – 38 cm
Kodaikanal (Dindigul dt)– 36 cm
Thuckalay (Kanyakumari dt) – 34 cm
Boothapandi (Kanyakumari dt) – 31 cm
Andipatti (Theni dt) – 27 cm
Posted by Pradeep
5pm, Thunder cells over Central Tamilnadu, Isolated over central Andhra and N-E Orissa... http://ow.ly/i/1S8W
5pm, Entire west coast from Gujarat to South Tip of India is peppered with Thunder storms... meaning good moisture push. http://ow.ly/i/1S8W
RT @abnashbudhani: at last the temperature of aurangabad reduced @weatherofindia
Category:
aurangabad
RT @im_adi: http://ping.fm/tBVlO - Its so cloudy in Aurangabad maharashtra! Also windy!see that tree got tilted by wind! (4:59pm)
RT @AVEEMIISRAW: Dancing clouds creating amazing patterns as the rains halts for a few seconds near neriamangalam http://ping.fm/ww88N
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ..Update # 7..Severe Cyclone category 3. In striking distance to Oman. Will in re-curve in 24hrs?.. http://ow.ly/1SV0h
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 7.. Severe Cyclone category 3
Severe Cyclone category 3 now and still moving in N-W direction towards Oman.
Heavy thunder storms over Gujarat at this time.
JTWC warning
---------------------------------
JTWC projected path
------------------------------------
JTWC still sees that the system will re-curve towards north Arabian sea in another 24 hrs after moving very close to Oman.
Satellite shot at 2pm IST
-----------------------------------
We can see the CLEAR Eye of the Cyclone
IMD warning at 2pm IST
--------------------------------------
Heavy thunder storms over Gujarat at this time.
JTWC warning
---------------------------------
020900Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 60.5E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (PHET), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WITH THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 115 KNOTS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A RAGGED 11 NM EYE, PROVIDING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN POSITION. TC 03A CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. TC PHET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AND BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 36. TC PHET IS FORECAST TO THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE IN SPEED AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE WESTERLIES AND CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL BEFORE TAU 96. THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE WESTERLIES, HOWEVER, THEY DIFFER ON WHEN THE SYSTEM WILL TURN. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPLIT WITH TWO DISTINCT CLUSTERS OF TRACKERS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN. THE EASTERN CLUSTER (ECMWF, UKMO, WBAR) INDICATES A SHARP RECURVATURE AND FASTER TRACK SPEEDS. THE WESTERN CLUSTER (NOGAPS, GFS, GFDN) INDICATES A SLOWER TRACK INTO NORTHEASTERN OMAN, THEN RECURVATURE INTO THE NORTHERN ARABIAN SEA. THE MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY DEPICTING THE RIDGE AXIS DUE TO THE SPARSE DATA REGION AND HAVE INCREASED IN MODEL SPREAD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN TRENDING WESTWARD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM FARTHER WESTWARD AND CLOSER TO OMAN THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS. DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF TC 03A TO OMAN AROUND TAU 36, THE INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 48. ALSO, AFTER INTERACTION WITH THE WESTERLIES, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE, THEREFORE TC PHET SHOULD NOT INTENSIFY FURTHER BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL BY TAU 96. TC 03A WILL THEN DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 22 FEET
JTWC projected path
------------------------------------
JTWC still sees that the system will re-curve towards north Arabian sea in another 24 hrs after moving very close to Oman.
Satellite shot at 2pm IST
-----------------------------------
We can see the CLEAR Eye of the Cyclone
IMD warning at 2pm IST
--------------------------------------
ARB 02/2010/14 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 1400 hours IST
Sub: Very severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.
The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral Arabian Sea remained practically stationary, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours, close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long.0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
02-06-2010/1130 | 17.5/61.0 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.0/60.5 | 130-140 gusting to 150 |
02-06-2010/2330 | 18.5/60.0 | 140-150 gusting to 165 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 19.0/59.5 | 150-160 gusting to 175 |
03-06-2010/1130 | 19.5/59.5 | 160-170 gusting to 185 |
03-06-2010/2330 | 20.5/59.5 | 180-200 gusting to 215 |
04-06-2010/1130 | 22.5/60.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-.2010/2330 | 23.5/63.5 | 200-220 gusting to 235 |
05-06-.2010/1130 | 24.5/66.5 | 200-210 gusting to 225 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Gale winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian Sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea. Fishermen who are in the open sea should return to the coast by 3rd evening.
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
India,
JTWC
More on Cyclone "Phet" & Gujarat Showers
Tropical cyclone 03A has intensified quickly in the last 24 hours, and as a result, the storm has been renamed Tropical Storm Phet. Phet is located in the Arabian Sea, Northern Indian Ocean, and is threatening the Indian and Pakistani coastlines, NASA satellite imagery has claimed.
NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Tropical Storm Phet on June 1 at 9:11 UTC (5:11 EDT) and captured an infrared image of the cloud top temperatures. The image indicated large areas of high, cold cloud tops, as cold as -63 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong convection.
At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on June 1, Tropical Storm Phet had maximum sustained winds near 55 knots (62 mph) with higher gusts. Phet was located about 550 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, near 16.8 North and 62.2 East. Phet is moving to the northwest near 6 knots (7 mph).
Current landmasses threatened by Phet include: India (Gujarat), Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan).
Phet is forecast to continue strengthening and turn northeast later this week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts landfall by the end of the week in the border area between India and Pakistan.
Regional warnings are already in effect for the Indian and Pakistani coastlines from Thursday on. The Indian Meteorological Department's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center noted on June 1, "Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from June 3 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph (34-40 mph) (with higher gusts) would commence along and off Gujarat coast from June 2 and increase gradually." (ANI)
Gales blowing at a speed of 55 kmph and thunderstorm claimed two lives and injured seven in Rajkot district on Tuesday night, even as met department issued an alert for a cyclone storm, christened Phet, that may hit the state’s coast in the next 48 hours.
The hot and sultry weather underwent a dramatic change in several parts of the state, including Ahmedabad, which also witnessed lightening.
A deep depression over Arabian sea which has intensified into a cyclone storm will be preceded by stormy weather in next 24 hours, according to the met department.
Gujarat showers
Director, IMD, Gujarat, Kamaljit Ray said, “The depression over Arabian Sea moved north-westwards and lay centred about 1,030 km south-west of Naliya in Gujarat on Tuesday”.
Under the system’s influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall will be experienced on Gujarat coast from June 3 while stormy winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph will commence off the coast from June 2 and increase gradually, a communiqué said. Meanwhile, those who died have been identified as Sanjay Baraiyya, 15, who was struck by lightening while working in an open field in Khakana village on the outskirts of Rajkot city. A woman working with him sustained severe injuries.
In Pipaliya village of Wankaner town of Rajkot district, a compound wall crashed due to windy weather, killing a woman identified as Guddiben on the spot. Six persons were also crushed under the debris and injured.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat, has alerted people in the Kutch and Saurshtra coastal areas of a tropical storm brewing in Arabian Sea, which they predict may soon upgrade to a cyclone.
Saltpan workers, fishermen and labourers working in these areas have been issued warnings by district authorities in Kutch and Porbandar, asking them not to venture into the sea for the next 24 hours.
Chief Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the preparations in an emergency meeting held on Tuesday evening with senior government officials in the wake of cyclone warning.
Sources in the Met department said the cyclone named “Phet” will pack up winds of 120 kilometer/hr around its centre. The location of the cyclone is estimated to be around 16 degree north latitude and 63 degree east longitude, about 1,030 kilometers, south-west of Naliya
Posted by Anonymous
NASA's Aqua satellite flew over Tropical Storm Phet on June 1 at 9:11 UTC (5:11 EDT) and captured an infrared image of the cloud top temperatures. The image indicated large areas of high, cold cloud tops, as cold as -63 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong convection.
At 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT) on June 1, Tropical Storm Phet had maximum sustained winds near 55 knots (62 mph) with higher gusts. Phet was located about 550 miles south-southwest of Karachi, Pakistan, near 16.8 North and 62.2 East. Phet is moving to the northwest near 6 knots (7 mph).
Current landmasses threatened by Phet include: India (Gujarat), Pakistan (Sindh and Balochistan).
Phet is forecast to continue strengthening and turn northeast later this week. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts landfall by the end of the week in the border area between India and Pakistan.
Regional warnings are already in effect for the Indian and Pakistani coastlines from Thursday on. The Indian Meteorological Department's Regional Specialized Meteorological Center noted on June 1, "Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from June 3 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph (34-40 mph) (with higher gusts) would commence along and off Gujarat coast from June 2 and increase gradually." (ANI)
Gales blowing at a speed of 55 kmph and thunderstorm claimed two lives and injured seven in Rajkot district on Tuesday night, even as met department issued an alert for a cyclone storm, christened Phet, that may hit the state’s coast in the next 48 hours.
The hot and sultry weather underwent a dramatic change in several parts of the state, including Ahmedabad, which also witnessed lightening.
A deep depression over Arabian sea which has intensified into a cyclone storm will be preceded by stormy weather in next 24 hours, according to the met department.
Gujarat showers
Director, IMD, Gujarat, Kamaljit Ray said, “The depression over Arabian Sea moved north-westwards and lay centred about 1,030 km south-west of Naliya in Gujarat on Tuesday”.
Under the system’s influence, widespread rainfall with heavy to very heavy rainfall will be experienced on Gujarat coast from June 3 while stormy winds with speed reaching 55-65 kmph will commence off the coast from June 2 and increase gradually, a communiqué said. Meanwhile, those who died have been identified as Sanjay Baraiyya, 15, who was struck by lightening while working in an open field in Khakana village on the outskirts of Rajkot city. A woman working with him sustained severe injuries.
In Pipaliya village of Wankaner town of Rajkot district, a compound wall crashed due to windy weather, killing a woman identified as Guddiben on the spot. Six persons were also crushed under the debris and injured.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Gujarat, has alerted people in the Kutch and Saurshtra coastal areas of a tropical storm brewing in Arabian Sea, which they predict may soon upgrade to a cyclone.
Saltpan workers, fishermen and labourers working in these areas have been issued warnings by district authorities in Kutch and Porbandar, asking them not to venture into the sea for the next 24 hours.
Chief Minister Narendra Modi reviewed the preparations in an emergency meeting held on Tuesday evening with senior government officials in the wake of cyclone warning.
Sources in the Met department said the cyclone named “Phet” will pack up winds of 120 kilometer/hr around its centre. The location of the cyclone is estimated to be around 16 degree north latitude and 63 degree east longitude, about 1,030 kilometers, south-west of Naliya
Posted by Anonymous
Rain map of 1-Jun-2010... shows less rainfall for Kerala and Heavy for Maharastra coast... http://ow.ly/i/1RVT
12pm, As Cyclone "Phet" is intensifying Gujarat coast is receiving some thunder storms from Morning.. http://ow.ly/i/1RVK
Cyclone "Phet", Before making landfall on 5-Jun, the system will weaken into a depression according to GFS model... http://ow.ly/1SSw7
Cyclone "03 A - Phet" ...Update # 6.. Severe Cyclone with an EYE
Latest Satellite shot shows an EYE to cyclone "Phet".
For the next 12 hrs it'll move in a N-N-W direction, before taking a re-curve towards North Arabian sea due to the Upper air current as seen here..
Eventually it'll make landfall over pakistan and touching parts of Gujarat as well.
Before making landfall on 5-Jun, the system will weaken into a depression according to GFS model.
IMD warning
-----------------------
For the next 12 hrs it'll move in a N-N-W direction, before taking a re-curve towards North Arabian sea due to the Upper air current as seen here..
Eventually it'll make landfall over pakistan and touching parts of Gujarat as well.
Before making landfall on 5-Jun, the system will weaken into a depression according to GFS model.
IMD warning
-----------------------
ARB 02/2010/13 Dated: 02.06.2010
Time of issue: 1100 hours IST
Sub: Severe cyclonic storm, ‘PHET’ over westcentral Arabian Sea.
The severe cyclonic storm, “PHET” over westcentral & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, 02nd June 2010 over westcentral Arabian sea near latitude 17.50N and long. 61.00E, about 1200 km west-southwest of Mumbai, 1060 km southwest of Naliya (Kutch, Gujarat), 1100 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan) and 600 km south-southeast of Sur (Oman).
The current environmental condition and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further into a very severe cyclonic storm and move slowly in a north-northwesterly/northerly direction for next 24 hours close to Oman coast and then recurve northeastwards towards Pakistan & adjoining Gujarat coast, skirting Oman coast.
Based on latest analysis with NWP models and other conventional techniques, estimated track and intensity of the system are given below:
Date/Time(IST) | Position (lat. 0N/ long. 0E) | Sustained maximum surface wind speed (kmph) |
02-06-2010/0830 | 17.5/61.0 | 110-120 gusting to 130 |
02-06-2010/1130 | 18.0/60.5 | 120-130 gusting to 140 |
02-06-2010/1730 | 18.5/60.0 | 130-140 gusting to 150 |
02-06-2010/2330 | 19.0/59.5 | 140-150 gusting to 165 |
03-06-2010/0530 | 19.5/59.5 | 150-160 gusting to 175 |
03-06-2010/1730 | 20.5/59.5 | 170-190 gusting to 205 |
04-06-2010/0530 | 22.5/60.5 | 210-220 gusting to 235 |
04-06-.2010/1730 | 23.5/63.5 | 210-220 gusting to 235 |
05-06-.2010/0530 | 24.5/66.5 | 200-210 gusting to 225 |
Under the influence of this system, fairly widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would commence over coastal areas of Gujarat from 4th June 2010 and increase thereafter. Squally winds with speed reaching 65-75 kmph gusting 85 kmph would commence along and off Gujarat coast from 4th June 2010 and increase gradually.
Sea condition will be very high to phenomenal over north Arabian sea and along and off Gujarat coast from 3rd June 2010. Fishermen are advised not venture into the sea
Category:
Cyclones,
IMD Report,
India
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