Tuesday, October 19, 2010
4:30pm, The remnant of "97B" along Maharastra coast is causing more heavy showers over W,N-W Maharastra & S. Gujarat.. http://ow.ly/i/4Hwz
pessimistic about NEM 2010 rainfall
- Some analysts may prefer WIND analysis to locate SUB TROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE/TROUGH LINES etc. This will many a time help to guide to the onset / spread or existence / or withdrawal of wind regime. As a result it may be pointed out that... [1] SWM winds are active over atleast 15 degree parallel and the strength is felt upto 4 to 5 km aloft. Upper level Easterly Jet is strong [>30mps] near tropopause and above. [2] The traditional High pressure hovering over west and adjoining central India is just creeping up. [3] Even though western Pacific is active up to Indonesia [evidence 'MEGI' etc] Bay is NOT so active during SWM 2010. [4] LA NINA effect will bring cold current into western Pacific. with this 'roughly' one can estimate the arrival of NEM and its activity.
Super Typhoon Megi
On October 18, 2010, Typhoon Megi approached and made landfall in the northeastern Isabela Province of the Philippines. Spanning more than 600 kilometers (370 miles) across, Megi was the 15th tropical storm and 7th typhoon of the season in the western Pacific Ocean. It was the most intense tropical cyclone of the year to date.
This image was taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite at 10:35 a.m. Philippine Time (02:35 UTC) on October 18, 2010. Megi was bearing down on Palanan Bay as a “super typhoon” with category 5 strength on the Saffir Simpson scale. As of 8:00 a.m. local time, the storm had sustained winds of 268 kilometers (167 miles) per hour, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center.
The storm had grown to “super” typhoon status on October 16, and wind speeds peaked at an estimated 287 kilometers (178 miles) per hour while the storm was still over the Pacific Ocean on October 17. Megi began to downgrade as it moved onshore around 11:30 a.m. on October 18 and then crossed over the Sierra Madre mountain range (average elevation 1,800 meters, or 5,900 feet).
News reports indicated at least one death and an unknown number of injuries, as power and communications was cut off to more than 90 percent of Isabela and Cagayan provinces. In addition to the immediate damage, officials were concerned about the long-term damage to the rice crop, a staple of the national diet.
The official international name of the storm is Megi, which means “catfish” in Korean. But the storm is known locally as Juan, as the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration has its own naming system.
Forecasters were predicting that the storm would continue moving west and north, entering the South China Sea and re-intensifying before a potential landfall in China or Vietnam later this week. China’s National Meteorological Centre urged local governments to make preparations for extreme weather.
RT @alertnet: Philippines assesses damage after Megi http://ow.ly/2VGnQ Typhoon kills 10, damages rice crop. Now heads for China !!
Super typhoon triggers N-E monsoon over South China
Super typhoon Megi, a powerful storm originating from the West Pacific, has dragged in the northeast monsoon along the coastal areas of China, according to a post by the Hong Kong Observatory.
Measuring up to Category-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale in terms of storm intensity, Megi weakened to typhoon status on Monday after encountering the ‘mountain spine' in the Northern Philippines.
STRONGEST POST-2005
Megi has brought forth winds with speeds of up to 269 km/hr with gusts up to 324 km/hr, according to Philippine authorities.
Those wind speeds make it the most powerful storm to appear worldwide since 2005 after Hurricane Wilma and Hurricane Katrina.
Megi is also the strongest storm to hit the Northwest Pacific region in the past 20 years.
The storm is forecast to re-intensify after entering the South China Sea and possibly regain super typhoon strength, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
LIKELY LANDFALL
Megi could be aiming to hit the Southwest China coast and the larger Indo-China region over the next few days, according to ECMWF.
But along the way, the storm has already left a trail of massive destruction as it brought accompanying high winds to bear down on the Philippines, Taiwan and adjoining Southeast China coast.
The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre and the London-based Tropical Storm Group tend to believe that Megi might choose to cut its path short over the South China Sea and power its way into the Southern China coast, west of Hong Kong.
REMNANT FOR BAY
Meteorological experts have set up a watch for a remnant circulation from Megi to meander its way further west into the Bay of Bengal.
The farther to the west (and closer to Bay of Bengal) its ultimate location for landfall, the better endowed the remnant circulation would be. Meanwhile, a remnant low-pressure area from the deep depression that stalked the Bay had moved west-southwest over Interior Peninsula after crossing the Orissa coast, which was traced to over Marathwada on Monday.
WIDESPReAD RAIN
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on the same evening said that widespread rainfall was reported from Konkan, Goa, Madhya Maharashtra and Coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending in the morning.
It was fairly widespread over Vidarbha, Marathwada, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, North Andhra Pradesh, North Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands and scattered over Bihar, Jharkhand and the Northeastern States.
An afternoon satellite showed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds over parts of Andhra Pradesh, East-central Arabian Sea, East Bay of Bengal and North Andaman Sea.
An IMD satellite derivative product showed negative values for outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR), a proxy for cloudiness, over the Mumbai-Konkan, West Maharashtra and adjoining North and North Interior Karnataka and Telangana.
Negative OLR values were also available for extreme South Peninsula.
A weather warning valid for Tuesday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan, Goa and North Interior Karnataka.
An IMD outlook valid until Thursday said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Maharashtra, Marathwada, Konkan and Goa during the next two days.
There would be fairly widespread over the Northeastern States, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Madhya Pradesh, Coastal and North Interior Karnataka, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers would occur over East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh as a feeble western disturbance marches its way across. Rainfall activity may increase over Bihar, going forward.
Extended forecast valid until Saturday said that fairly widespread rainfall would occur over the Western Himalayas, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Central and East India and along the West Coast of India as also the Northeastern States.
Widespread Heavy S-W showers to continue along Coastal Karnataka and Goa till 23-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/4He7
As predicted we have another LOW circulation over E. Bay... http://ow.ly/i/4HdW ... here's the latest sat. shot ... http://ow.ly/i/4He3
Early winter: The signals of a La Nina Winter ???
UK is to be hit by an arctic blast, early this week, with minimum temperatures set to plunge -6C. Maximum temperatures meanwhile are likely to plummet to 7C. This is half the average for the time of year, but will feel more like 3C due to the effect of biting winds. Met Office forecaster Robin Downton was quoted by the Sun as saying, “It's fairly early on to be getting temperatures below freezing."
In India, by second week of September, the higher reaches of Garhwali Himalayas received snowfall, sending the mercury plummeting in Chamoli and Rudraprayag districts. The hills around Badrinath and Kedarnath temples also have received snowfall while lower areas received rainfall forcing the people to take out their woollens. The higher hills in Lahaul and Spiti, Chamba, Kinnaur and Kullu districts also experienced mild snowfall. Rohtang Pass, located at an altitude of 13,050 feet was clad in two to three inches of snow by mid- last month.
Read More: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2010/10/early-winter-signals-of-la-nina-winter.html
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