11pm, 02B is almost having an eye.. now JTWC also predicts a central Tamilnadu landfall on 31st.. http://ow.ly/i/14sig

93 west & 02 B (NRLMRY)

[1] 93 west & 02 B are one and the same.  It has slightly drifted south westward and lay centered 100km E-NE (056 Degree) of Trincomalee.

[2] Clouds are seen packed in SW sector only.

[3] Core wind speed are yet to attain cyclonic speed

[4] Sri Lankan weather office animates it to cross near Nagapattinam / Karaikal  below Parengipettai

8:45pm, Showers pushing into S-E,central Tamilnadu coast now.!

IMD's latest warning at 7:30pm states that "02B" will move N-W from the present position .. here's the present position http://ow.ly/i/14pwj 

"93W" is now "02B" - Almost a Cyclone now!

"93W" is now "02B" - Almost a Cyclone now!
If this continues to strengthen then it'll be named as "Nilam" by morning of 30-Oct.

Position  ::  8.8N , 82E
Pressure  ::  996mb
Winds  ::  65 km/hr

Here's the latest 6:30pm Satellite IR image.

#chennai - showers approaching N.Tamilnadu coast , chennai city from S-E ... http://ow.ly/i/14nCN

Moderate showers & Gusts forecast for N.Tamilnadu coast & #Chennai till tomorrow morning !

While widespread and heavy rains with high winds forecast for central,S-E Tamilnadu coast till tomorrow morning.

Heavy rains are possible only after tomorrow noon along N.Tamilnadu coast & #Chennai ..  http://ow.ly/i/14nGd 

"93W" - NOGAPS favors a Central Tamilnadu coast landfall

Latest NOGAPS model also suggests a N-W movement from now on and make landfall along central Tamilnadu coast on afternoon of 31-Oct.

COLA model also suggests a Central Tamilnadu coast landfall on noon of 31-Oct.

"93W" - Depression is almost over N-N-E Srilanka

4:30pm, Visible satellite shows HUGE T.showers along N-N-E Srilanka
Pressure is still around 1000mb and NO weakening seen.

And here's the latest 6pm, Satellite IR image.

Heavy rain along N,N-E Srilanka continues !

Winds at Upper levels (200hpa Jet or the steering winds) is favoring a West and N-W movement.

3pm, Depression over Bay "93W" is nearing N,N-E Srilanka.. Color satellite IR image attached here .. http://ow.ly/i/14lP1 

Heavy rain with wind to start along S-E,central, North Tamilnadu coast & #chennai from early hrs / morning of 30-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/14lpj 

#chennai - 2:10pm, High cloud cover continues (due to the outer band of Depression). Wind gusts continue !

"93W" - Intensifying into a Deep Depression and drifting West

1pm, Slow moving Depression now and Showing signs of intensifying into a Deep Depression in next 6hrs.
May become as a Number tropical storm by Midnight today.
Here's the latest Satellite IR image at 1pm

IMD model suggests a central & North Tamilnadu coast hit on 31-Oct.

NOGAPS model suggests a hit around S-E & Central Tamilnadu coast on afternoon of 31-Oct.

IMD warning at 11:30am IST
------------------------------------------------

Deep Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal: Cyclone Alert for North Tamil Nadu,
Puducherry and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts
The deep depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at
0830 hrs IST of today, the 29

th

 October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5

0

N and 

longitude  83.5

0

E,  about  530  km  southeast  of  Chennai  (Tamilnadu)  and  270  km  northeast  of 

Trincomalee  (Srilanka).  The  system  would  intensify  further  into  a  cyclonic  storm  and  move 

westwards for some more time and then move northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and 

adjoining south Andhra Pradesh coast between Nagapattinam and Nellore by 31

st

 October, 2012 

evening/night.

JTWC warning at 9am IST

--------------------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 155
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.0N 84.7E TO 11.1N 79.5E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290300Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E.  THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 
84.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.6N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTHEAST 
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER AN ELONGATED BUT CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC). A 282354Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDING INTO THE 
LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH. DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE AGENCIES RANGE FROM 20 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A RIDGE 
AXIS WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL 
MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM TO 
MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT 06-24 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO INCREASING 
ORGANIZATION AND NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

RT @toichennainews: Wet week ahead as clouds move towards Chennai http://t.co/sZtmlI8W

#chennai - Cloudy with high cloud cover now 8:20am, Showers expected after 12pm. Can expect wind gusts then and there thru the day! 

"93W" is now a Depression.. Expected to move West

7:30am, "93W" is now a Depression.
Latest position ...
Position  ::  9.6N , 83.7E
Wind   ::    Around 45 km/hr
Pressure ::  1000mb.
Here's the latest visible satellite pic...

Almost NO movement for the past 6hrs, but good consolidation seen. Heavy convective activity seen all around the core.

IMD warning at 2am IST

-----------------------------------------

Sub:  Depression over southwest Bay of Bengal:
Pre-Cyclone Watch for North Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts
The depression over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 2330 hrs
IST of today, the 28th October 2012 over southwest Bay of Bengal near latitude 9.5N and longitude
84.5E, about 600 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 350 km east-northeast of Trincomalee
(Srilanka). The system would intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hrs and subsequently
into a marginal cyclonic storm. The system would move westwards towards north Sri Lanka and
Tamil Nadu coast.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy
rainfall would commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu and Puducherry from today onwards.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph would commence along and off north Tamil Nadu
and Puducherry coasts from today i.e 29th
 October 2012 afternoon onwards. Sea condition will be
rough to very rough along and off north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts from that period.
Fishermen along north Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coasts, who are out at sea are advised to return
to the coast.
The system is under constant surveillance.


JTWC warning at 11:30pm, 28-Oct-2012
-------------------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 84.9E 
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 84.4E, APPROXIMATELY 315 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A SLIGHTLY 
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD 
AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
CONTINUES TO SHOW THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM 
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. BASED ON INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.