Monday, August 02, 2010
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia, Baroda.2.00pm - cloudy sky with showers. snap of sky near dwaraka yesterday http://ow.ly/i/2XXJ
7:30pm, Heavy showers peppered all over Uttarpradesh, Madhyapradesh and Rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/2Yh5
5:30pm, Showers continue over Gujarat,.. and Heavy showers over Central Pakistan.. http://ow.ly/i/2Y7g
The trailing end of the current system has left Guarat drenched, yet again.
Parts of Kutch (desert) and Jamnagar were the wettest spots in the state.
The figures for 24 hrs Monday morning are:
Jamnagar:Khambhalia 350 mms, Lalur 227 mms,Jamnagar 184 mms, Kalyanpur 139 mms, Jamjodhpur 125 mms, and Kalavad 113 mms.
Kutch: Abdasa 65 mms, Mandvi 64 mms (total 1087mms and normal 375 mms for Mandvi), Rapar 99 mms and Lakhpat 62 mms.
Rest Gujarat: Veraval 205 mms,Valsad 202 mms, Kodinar 173 mms,Becharaji 146 mms, Vansda 145 mms,Sutrapada 139 mms,Morbi 131 mms, Sanand 113 mms, Wadhvan 105 mms.
Plenty of stations recorded between 70-100 mms.
Monsoon axis is running thru Guarat/M.P. and into the bay region today. With the axis in the central region, some continuation of the current rains in the central region, and in Gujarat for another day could be expected. The UAC system over Gujarat should move west, reducing Gujarat rains from Tuesday.
From Tuesday, and overall reduction in rainfall would not be out of place. Regions of Gujarat, M.P, Konkan, Maharashtra, whole of Karnatak and the southern peninsula will see rainfall intensity decreasing. I would estimate the interiors of Maharashtra and Karnataka to have very scanty rains, initially, this week.Till ? For a couple of days. Untill we see the next system moving in around the 4th.Aug.and rain fall commencing from the east coast again, and moving inland.
With easterlies blowing above the axis in the nort, frequent rains, with heavy pockets would be in order in the U.P.plains and Delhi regions.
Mumbai, had around 105 mms of rain Saturday/Sunday. (estimated was 150 mms). Now, Monday's forecast remains, frequent showers, with around 30 mms, and a decrease in rains from Tuesday thru Thursday. So, this week, initially, will be less wet, with sunny intervals, and a breather to commuters.
Lakes rainfall total till July: Tansa: 1358 mms, Modak Sagar: 1307 mms, Bhatsa: 1715 mms, Upper Vaitarna: 1187 mms.
Lake levels are rising, and quantum wise the lakes are almost 90% full. But actual storage of useable water is 7.1 lmlitres, against a full storage of 13.0 lmlitres.
Best July in 5 years, as rains pound North
The country has just had the best July in five years in terms of recorded monsoon rainfall (302 mm).
The last time it rained more than 300 mm (all-India area-weighted average) was in 2005. But the similarity ends there.
In 2005, a surplus July was followed by a deficient August; whereas, this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting August and September to be surplus.
REPEAT OF 2006
So, it is probably going to be a repeat of 2006, where, too, the monsoon began weak only to gradually gain strength in later months.
A common denominator deciding the course of events, five years apart, is the redoubtable game-changer located to the east – a La Nina in the East Equatorial Pacific.
By the look of things, La Nina may already have started impacting weather this side of the Pacific as evidenced in heavy rains and floods in China, India and Pakistan.
It could expectedly get worse going forward, with the IMD predicting rainfall at 107 per cent above the long-period average (LPA) for the country.
Meanwhile, a fresh monsoon surge has brought widespread rainfall over parts of Central and adjoining Northwest India during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
An IMD update said that west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and the West Coast received widespread rainfall during this period.
It was fairly widespread over the remaining parts of north-west India, Gujarat and the north eastern States while being scattered over the remaining parts of Central and South Peninsular India.
There would not be any respite for these regions over the next two days as well, according to a warning issued by the IMD.
MORE IN STORE
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
Satellite imagery on Sunday showed presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over the entire region covering Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
These clouds were also traced to over north-east Arabian Sea, north and adjoining central and south-east Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
The International Research Institute (IRI) at the Columbia University too has come out with a forecast indicating very heavy to extremely heavy recorded rainfall during the six days ending on Wednesday.
EXTREME HEAVY
The extremely heavy rainfall belt is shown to cover Rajasthan and adjoining north-east and south-east Pakistan.
The latter have already witnessed a round of serious flooding.
Central India, West India (Gujarat and neighbourhood) and East India would also get moderate to heavy rains during this period.
SUCCESSIVE ‘LOW'S
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) supports this scenario by predicting the formation of ‘low's, one after the other, on Wednesday (Aug 4) and Monday (Monday next).
Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Mumbai-Konkan and Gujarat are expected to come under a fresh wave of rainfall as the La Nina strengthens its grips on the Indian monsoon.
Meanwhile on Sunday, the IMD said in its update that the prevailing rain-driver low-pressure area lay parked over north-west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan. It is likely to move northwestwards.
SYSTEMS IN PLACE
The upper air cyclonic circulation over north-west Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower levels also persisted.
So too did the offshore trough running from south Gujarat coast to Konkan coast.
In its forecast valid until Wednesday, the IMD said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand and Northeast India.
EXTENDED RAINS
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also occur over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
Forecast valid until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over the plains of Northwest India, East, Northeast and Peninsular India.
Expected D.Depression / Cyclone will cross N.Orissa coast on 6 or 7-Aug, producing some massive Showers ... http://ow.ly/i/2XVK
IMD sees ‘bumper' rainfall in August-September
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has maintained its forecast for ‘normal' rainfall during the ongoing South-West monsoon - quantified earlier as 102 per cent of the long-period average (LPA).
Vigorous rainfall during the last 10 days ending Wednesday (July 28) has helped the country come out of an unexpected lean patch in early July.
JULY RAINFALL
The July rainfall has since improved to 101 per cent, taking the seasonal recorded precipitation level to 95 per cent of the LPA as on Wednesday (July 28, and counting).
Precipitation during August-September is expected to be 107 per cent, which is significantly higher than that during the first two months of the season, according to Dr Ajit Tyagi, Director-General, IMD.
Dr Tyagi told newspersons in New Delhi on Friday that rainfall during the first-half was hampered by what he described as an ‘anomaly' in the Bay of Bengal.
Though the flows have been good over the Arabian Sea, the uncharacteristically muted Bay could not hold its end up.
Thus, while rain-driving depressions were simply absent, low-pressure areas had spun up at the least favoured of locations (southern than normal) in the Bay denying them the ‘carry' needed to drive rains inland.
HEAVY RAINS
The Arabian Sea flows, in the meanwhile, have been dumping heavy falls over the west coast even as they ventured into north-west India, which in normal case would be the natural fiefdom of monsoon easterlies from the Bay.
But the Bay anomaly ensured that, instead, moisture-laden southwesterlies from the north-east Arabian Sea fan their way into north-west India.
They interacted profusely with the western disturbances to unleash a torrent that inundated many parts in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of Rajasthan.
In an updated outlook for August and September, the IMD said that rainfall during the second half of the season is likely to be normal.
Quantitatively, rainfall for the country as a whole during August to September is likely to be 107 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus or minus seven per cent.
Latest model forecasts from a majority of the dynamical and statistical weather models indicate ‘very high' probability (about 80 per cent) for monsoon-friendly La Nina conditions to continue during the remaining part of the season.
The La Nina is in general is associated with normal or above normal rainfall during the season as a whole, especially during the second half.
But the IMD added that while three geographical regions (Northwest India, Central India and South Peninsula) are likely to receive normal rainfall during this period, it would be below normal over Northeast India.
In its update on Friday, the IMD said that the low-pressure area located to over East Madhya Pradesh and adjoining west Madhya Pradesh has triggered another wet spell over the west coast and parts of peninsular India.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards and herald rains into Central India and Northwest India, going forward.
A special rain alert issued by the IMD has warned that isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over North Madhya Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha and Marathwada on Saturday.
Forecast valid until Monday spoke about the possibility of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall over Uttarkhand, West Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the West coast. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and adjoining northern plains, Central and Northeast India.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada on Friday and decrease thereafter.
A Low pressure system is expected over central Bay on 3-Aug and expected to become as D.Depression on 5-Aug in N.Bay.. http://ow.ly/i/2XVD
B S Yeddyurappa has said that water has not been released to Tamil Nadu through KRS or Kabini ... http://ow.ly/2jBVF
10:30am, Heavy showers continue over Coastal Gujarat... More showers for Orissa as well ... http://ow.ly/i/2XT6
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