Monday, August 02, 2010
Lonavala, hill station near Mumbai, has received almost 100'' of rain this season. 2409 mms ,96" till 31st. July.
Chennai - Drizzle started just now 5:53pm in Saidapet
Chennai - Present 5:13pm wind is from S-E... Heavy cloud cover now. Shower possibility after 6:30pm is increased to 85%
Chennai - Touched a max of 36.4 C (3:00pm).. still wind is from W-S-W and No sign of Sea breeze..!
The trailing end of the current system has left Guarat drenched, yet again.
Parts of Kutch (desert) and Jamnagar were the wettest spots in the state.
The figures for 24 hrs Monday morning are:
Jamnagar:Khambhalia 350 mms, Lalur 227 mms,Jamnagar 184 mms, Kalyanpur 139 mms, Jamjodhpur 125 mms, and Kalavad 113 mms.
Kutch: Abdasa 65 mms, Mandvi 64 mms (total 1087mms and normal 375 mms for Mandvi), Rapar 99 mms and Lakhpat 62 mms.
Rest Gujarat: Veraval 205 mms,Valsad 202 mms, Kodinar 173 mms,Becharaji 146 mms, Vansda 145 mms,Sutrapada 139 mms,Morbi 131 mms, Sanand 113 mms, Wadhvan 105 mms.
Plenty of stations recorded between 70-100 mms.
Monsoon axis is running thru Guarat/M.P. and into the bay region today. With the axis in the central region, some continuation of the current rains in the central region, and in Gujarat for another day could be expected. The UAC system over Gujarat should move west, reducing Gujarat rains from Tuesday.
From Tuesday, and overall reduction in rainfall would not be out of place. Regions of Gujarat, M.P, Konkan, Maharashtra, whole of Karnatak and the southern peninsula will see rainfall intensity decreasing. I would estimate the interiors of Maharashtra and Karnataka to have very scanty rains, initially, this week.Till ? For a couple of days. Untill we see the next system moving in around the 4th.Aug.and rain fall commencing from the east coast again, and moving inland.
With easterlies blowing above the axis in the nort, frequent rains, with heavy pockets would be in order in the U.P.plains and Delhi regions.
Mumbai, had around 105 mms of rain Saturday/Sunday. (estimated was 150 mms). Now, Monday's forecast remains, frequent showers, with around 30 mms, and a decrease in rains from Tuesday thru Thursday. So, this week, initially, will be less wet, with sunny intervals, and a breather to commuters.
Lakes rainfall total till July: Tansa: 1358 mms, Modak Sagar: 1307 mms, Bhatsa: 1715 mms, Upper Vaitarna: 1187 mms.
Lake levels are rising, and quantum wise the lakes are almost 90% full. But actual storage of useable water is 7.1 lmlitres, against a full storage of 13.0 lmlitres.
Meanwhile, a fresh monsoon surge has brought widespread rainfall over parts of Central and adjoining Northwest India during the 24 hours ending Sunday morning.
An IMD update said that west Madhya Pradesh, east Rajasthan and the West Coast received widespread rainfall during this period.
It was fairly widespread over the remaining parts of north-west India, Gujarat and the north eastern States while being scattered over the remaining parts of Central and South Peninsular India.
There would not be any respite for these regions over the next two days as well, according to a warning issued by the IMD.
MORE IN STORE
Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and coastal Karnataka.
Satellite imagery on Sunday showed presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over the entire region covering Haryana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, East Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gujarat, madhya Maharashtra, Jharkhand, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
These clouds were also traced to over north-east Arabian Sea, north and adjoining central and south-east Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea.
The International Research Institute (IRI) at the Columbia University too has come out with a forecast indicating very heavy to extremely heavy recorded rainfall during the six days ending on Wednesday.
The extremely heavy rainfall belt is shown to cover Rajasthan and adjoining north-east and south-east Pakistan.
The latter have already witnessed a round of serious flooding.
Central India, West India (Gujarat and neighbourhood) and East India would also get moderate to heavy rains during this period.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) supports this scenario by predicting the formation of ‘low's, one after the other, on Wednesday (Aug 4) and Monday (Monday next).
Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Mumbai-Konkan and Gujarat are expected to come under a fresh wave of rainfall as the La Nina strengthens its grips on the Indian monsoon.
Meanwhile on Sunday, the IMD said in its update that the prevailing rain-driver low-pressure area lay parked over north-west Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Rajasthan. It is likely to move northwestwards.
SYSTEMS IN PLACE
The upper air cyclonic circulation over north-west Rajasthan and neighbourhood in lower levels also persisted.
So too did the offshore trough running from south Gujarat coast to Konkan coast.
In its forecast valid until Wednesday, the IMD said that widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers are likely over Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, Sikkim, Jharkhand and Northeast India.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also occur over Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh during the next two days.
Forecast valid until Friday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over the plains of Northwest India, East, Northeast and Peninsular India.
Heavy showers for Gujarat & S-W Rajasthan will continue till evening of 3-Aug.
Widespread showers are expected to reduce along entire WEST coast from 4-Aug.
More afternoon & evening showers expected for Chennai, Andhra coast for another 1 week due to Heavy activity over Central Bay
Chennai - Just touched a max of 34.1 C (12:24pm)... wind is from West