A WD, with extended trough will cross eastwards from Pakistan thru Northern India from the 16th October. Rains will be moderate in Extreme North Pakistan. On the 16th and 17th of October, Northern Indian states of Kashmir and HP will get some rains, with snow in the medium ranges. (Gulmarg/Pahalgam may get first snowfall).
Both Punjabs will get light rains on the 16th October. 
Cloudy weather in Delhi on 16th and 17th.the nights will drop to below 15c in the NCR after the 18th of October, once the cloudiness clears.

As the Southern UAC weakens, we see a change of wind direction to NE over Chennai region from 15th/16th October. The final withdrawal of SWm from Southern most India, and the NEM setting, may happen between 16th and 20th October.

More on Vagaries..

RT @aash_tvm: Rain is waiting to shower. Hopefully, when I start frm home. #Trivandrum @weatherofindia  (6:22pm)

RT @midhun536: Rainy cloud in trivandrum...... http://t.co/ODxfZVTU (5:46pm)

5:30pm, Heavy showers seen all along W.Ghats of Kerala, S,S-E.Tamilnadu and over N-E.Andhra & S.Orissa.. http://ow.ly/i/10S6Y

 5:30pm, Remnant of "94B" over S,S-E.Bangladesh & South N-E states is still active. Rain may last for another 12hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/10S6Y

#Chennai - "Rain Centre is now decade-old" ... http://ow.ly/eoiaf 

@sanjay_kumaraut >> #Mumbai - Monsoon has almost left Mumbai.. so expect very less or almost NO rain from today!

RT @sanjay_kumaraut: Very Hot day.. Need urgent rain in Mumbai (2:10pm)

Due to "94B", Heavy & widespread showers to continue over S,central N-E states during next 24hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/10QI1

Showers to continue over S,W.Tamilnadu, W.ghats of Tamilnadu, S.Kerala for next 3 days... http://ow.ly/i/10QJw

By saturday/sunday .. showers are expected to spread over most of Tamilnadu except over coastal areas .. http://ow.ly/i/10QK6

Showers over W.ghats of kerala, and most of Tamilnadu to start from 13-Oct and expected to continue till 17-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/10QKC

From 13-Oct to 17-Oct.. some showers may spill into S,S-W.Karnataka as well.

Showers continue over S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala

TAMIL NADU AND PUDUCHERRY:  

       Srivilliputhur and  Rajapalayam (both Virudhunagar Dist) and  Sivagiri (Tirunelveli Dist)7 each, Grand anaicut (Thanjavur Dist), Watrap (Virudhunagar Dist) and  Thuvakudi (Trichy Dist) 5 each, Pudukottai (Pudukkottai Dist) 4, Sivakasi (Virudhunagar Dist), Periyar Dam  (Theni Dist), Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari Dist) and  Cheranmahadevi (Tirunelveli Dist) 3 each, Thiruthuraipoondi (Tiruvarur Dist), Gudalur (Theni Dist), Lalgudi (Trichy Dist), Perungalur (Pudukkottai Dist) and  Kalugumalai (Toothukudi Dist) 2 each and  Tiruvadanai,  Ramanathapuram and  R.S.mangalam (all Ramanathapuram Dist), Sankarankoil and Palayamkottai (both Tirunelveli Dist), Tirukattupalli (Thanjavur Dist), Thuckalay and Pechiparai (both Kanyakumari Dist) and  Alangudi (Pudukkottai Dist) 1 each.

KERALA:  

    Ottappalam (Palakkad district) and Perinthalmanna (Malappuram district) 7 each,  Kodungallur (Thrissur district) 5,  Angadippuram (Malappuram district) and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram district)  4 each, Enamackel and Vadakkancherry (both Thrissur district) 3 each, CIAL Kochi (Ernakulam district),  Thiruvananthapuram AP  and City, Thodupuzha (Idukki district),  Kozha (Kottayam district),  Mannarkad (Palakkad district) and  Konni (Pathanamthitta district) 2  each and  Kochi A.P, Piravom and  Ernakulam South (all Ernakulam district),  Punalur and Aryankavu (both Kollam district)  and Ponnani (Malappuram district) 1each.

Low level circulation along N-E.Andhra persists.. http://ow.ly/i/10QBZ

And this circulation along N-E.Andhra to continue till 14-Oct... http://ow.ly/i/10QCE

In next 12hrs, a low level circulation will pop over S.Tamilnadu & S.Kerala .. this'll persist for 1 day and move West. http://ow.ly/i/10QFl 

N-E monsoon update :: By 17-Oct the easterlies will start to enter into E,S-E Bay according to latest NOGAPS model... http://ow.ly/i/10QwR

Going by latest IMD-GFS & NOGAPS models .. N-E monsoon is expected to reach Tamilnadu coast on 18/19-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/10Qyq

Models also suggest a circulation or LOW system over S,S-W Bay to come along with the N-E monsoon start.

#chennai - 2:37pm, having a cloudy day so far. No threat of rain. Good low cloud formation seen.

1:30pm, Remnant of "94B" is now over E.bangladesh & South N-E states ... showers to continue for next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/10Qrh

1:30pm, T.showers popping over S,S-E.Tamilnadu and over South W.Ghats of Kerala & Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/10Qrh 

6am, "94B" has crashed into S,S-W Bangladesh coast. Heavy rain seen.. http://ow.ly/i/10O5O

RT @aknarendranath: @weatherofindia Business Line :  Wind patterns begin to align for North-East monsoon http://t.co/UbFhfiqJ