A WD, with extended trough will cross eastwards from Pakistan thru Northern India from the 16th October. Rains will be moderate in Extreme North Pakistan. On the 16th and 17th of October, Northern Indian states of Kashmir and HP will get some rains, with snow in the medium ranges. (Gulmarg/Pahalgam may get first snowfall).
Both Punjabs will get light rains on the 16th October.
Cloudy weather in Delhi on 16th and 17th.the nights will drop to below 15c in the NCR after the 18th of October, once the cloudiness clears.
As the Southern UAC weakens, we see a change of wind direction to NE over Chennai region from 15th/16th October. The final withdrawal of SWm from Southern most India, and the NEM setting, may happen between 16th and 20th October.
More on Vagaries..