Vardah - next 48hrs -- SST = ok, shear = ok, Dry air = NOT OK !!

4:30pm, Cyclone #vardah - No great intensification observed, less convective activity, but drifted West ! ...  https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMvNg.jpg 

#Vardah - ADT analysis suggest pressure around 995mb.

It'll intensify during next 36hrs ! but DRY air has slowly started to wrap thru SW.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMwj0.jpg 

#Vardah - The dry air may wrap around the system more quickly after next 36hrs and during its intensification process !

#Vardah and dry air !!

GFS - expects there'll be dry wrapping in next 48hrs at mid-levels than in lower levels .. 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMyFe.jpg 

After 36/48hrs, Due to DRY air, #vardah can have a drastic "moisture cut" >> meaning, it'll weaken !!!

Shear and Sea surface temperature is almost OK for #vardah 's further WNW track during next 36hrs ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMybH.jpg 

https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pMyfB.jpg 

December 09, 2016 at 12:01PM

HWRF is almost in sync with GFS, predicting #vardah landfall along central-coast Andhra on 12-Dec ... #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/u4xnkteb7J

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) December 9, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

December 09, 2016 at 11:52AM

ECMWF is "super consistent" in forecasting #vardah landfall over / near #Chennai on 12-Dec as Cyclone ... #iwm http://pic.twitter.com/nKrURCl6g7

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) December 9, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

Vardah - moving WNW

Cyclone #Vardah has turned West towards SE-coast of India .. ADT suggests pressure aroound 995mb! .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLVQR.gif 

Latest satellite visible show that most of convective activity is over N,NW,W quadrants of #vardah. Partly exposed LLCC can also be seen ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLW3W.jpg 

JTWC continues to forecast a central-coast Andhra as a Cyclone on 12-Dec ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLWuh.gif 
This is what GFS and GEM model suggest about the track of #Vardah .. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWO8.jpg 

Cyclone #Vardah is expected to be steered WNW by a ridge situated NE of the system 
.. https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWXU.jpg 
https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/pLWYf.jpg 

Wind shear is expected to be neutral all along its forecast track, so it'll intensify further during next 48hrs ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/original/pLX6l.gif 

@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29   >> As per latest GFS model, JTWC .. #vardah is not expected to make landfall near #Chennai  
@harinipaddy @AfsarOfficial @Karthikganesh29 >> We shall wait for latest ECMWF and HWRF model run in next 1 hr !