Saturday, May 29, 2010
RT @jothishnair1010: OMG!! The rain is pouring like cascade!! Trivandrum is totally doused in rain! (9:21pm)
Category:
Trivandrum
RT @AlertNet: Guatemala braces itself for first Pacific storm of season, which is expected to bring heavy flooding.... http://ow.ly/1RzPo
RT @AlertNet: Water begins seeping from lake in Pakistan; officials say next two days critical to avoid catastrophe http://ow.ly/1RzNG
Category:
Pakistan
9:30pm, Thunder cell over S.Karnataka along T.N border, N & N-E Orissa, and showers over central Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/1Orj
9:30pm, South-Central Arabian sea is getting ready to host a Depression OR Cyclone in next 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/1Orj
Wind analysis shows, the Low level Somali Jet is getting strong and available till Maldives.. http://ow.ly/i/1Ogd
5:30pm, Showers organizing well over Arabian sea just off-coast of S. Kerala.... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI
5:30pm, Isolated showers over Chatisgarh, N-W Andhra, central & S. Karnataka, N. Tamilnadu, S.central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI
5:30pm, Showers over Delhi, N-W Uttar Pradesh, S. Jharkand, Widespread over S. Bengal and N-E Orissa... http://ow.ly/i/1OeI
Rain map of 28-May, shows showers over J & K, N-E states, Tamilnadu, S.Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/1O5W
Cloud burst over Salem and showers over Kerala.. IMD report of 28-May-10
Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhrapradesh . Dry weather prevailed over Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
Salem and Mancompu (Alapuzha dt.) recorded a heavy rainfall of 10 and 7 centimetres respectively .
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Virudhunagar 6, Mavelikkara (Alapuzha dt.) 5, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Sendamangalam (Namakkal dt.) and Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 4 each, Mangalapuram and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt.), Sivakasi and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 3 each, Pechiparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt.), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt.) , Tiruchirapalli Airport, Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar dt.), Cherthala (Alapuzha dt.) , Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram Airport and Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 2 each and Yercaud, Padallur and Vembavur (both Perambalur dt.), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt.), Devala (Nilgiris dt.), Sathur (Virudhunagar dt.), Vythiri (Wayanad dt.), Thrissur, Kunnamkulam (Thrissur dt.), CIAL Kochi, Peermedu (Idukki dt.), Konni (Pathanamthitta dt.) Kollam, Minicoy and Vishakapattinam 1 each.
Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh
On Friday, the maximum temperature rose at one or two places over Telangana , South coastal Andhrapradesh, fell markedly at one or two places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, fell at one or two places over Interior Tamilnadu and changed little elsewhere over the region.
They were largely above normal at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, North coastal Tamilnadu, rest coastal Andhrapradesh, appreciably above normal at a few places over Kerala, interior Tamilnadu rest north coastal Tamilnadu , North interior Karnataka, rest Telangana, Rayalaseema, above normal at one or two places over rest Coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka , rest Rayalaseema, rest interior Tamilnadu , below normal at one or two places over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and were generally normal over rest of the region.
Number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius in the region.
Category:
IMD Report,
South West Monsoon,
Summer-10
1pm, Showers from Arabian sea approaching South Kerala coast... while an isolated Thunder cell seen over N-E Jharkhand.. http://ow.ly/i/1O5k
It is expected that the Arabian sea vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast... http://ow.ly/1Rt6C
IMD sees monsoon onset ‘around Monday'
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala would occur ‘around May 31'.
The IMD had, on May 14, issued the forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days.
It based its latest outlook on interpretation of latest meteorological conditions and also guidance of numerical weather models.
VORTEX LIKELY
There is also good possibility for the development of a monsoon onset vortex (a small but intense low-pressure system), off the Kerala coast during this period.
But the movement of the vortex is predicted to be away from the west coast, in a north-northwesterly direction, the IMD said.
(Numerical weather model predictions seemed to suggest rapid development of this system into a likely cyclonic storm.
These predictions showed the system spinning away into the west-northwest direction but posited half-way into north Arabian Sea by June 4 up to which forecasts were available.)
Westerlies may strengthen
It is expected that the vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast, the IMD said.
Numerical models indicate possibility of strengthening of the cross equatorial monsoon flow along the Indian longitudes.
The IMD operational models also show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, northward extension and quantity of moisture content along the west coast.
STRONG WESTERLIES
Models are indicating development of organised convection over the South Arabian Sea from Sunday onwards.
Referring to two major monsoon facilitators, the IMD said that the ‘heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country.
In this manner, the north-south pressure gradient (high in south to low over northwest) has strengthened, particularly over the Bay of Bengal.
There is also possibility of further advance of monsoon up to coastal Karnataka and southern parts of Tamil Nadu by around June 1.
Forecast from various global models indicates better circulation features conducive for monsoon during June 4 to 10 with strengthening of the cross equatorial flow over south Arabian Sea.
MONSOON ADVANCE
Models are also indicating increase of rainfall over the west coast of India during this week, the IMD outlook said.
Under these meteorological conditions, there is also possibility of advance of monsoon up to south Konkan and Goa along the west coast and also over parts of the Northeastern States.
Meanwhile on Friday, satellite pictures made available by the US National Weather Service at 5.15 p.m. showed convection mostly concentrated to east-central Arabian Sea.
Some of the clouds streaked across adjoining east and southeast Arabian Sea reaching into Kerala and adjoining south Arabian Sea.
A number of international models had already hinted the cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea over the next few days, close on the heels of monsoon onset over Kerala coast.
Some of these models suggested a changed track for the brewing system, which could first approach the Kerala-Karnataka coast initially.
The system might just toy with the coast by May 31-June 1, before shifting gears and start tracking north along the west coast.
It would then start re-curving north-northwest as models suggested earlier, and head into the north Arabian Sea by June 4.
But from here, models tend to disagree with the likely track of the storm in view of the arrival of a westerly trough from the northwest that would cut across Pakistan into north Arabian Sea.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in its update on Friday suggested that the westerly trough would ‘appropriate' the storm and steer it towards the east.
This was the case with Cyclone ‘Laila' that hit the Andhra Pradesh coast last week, before being steered north-northeast by a passing westerly trough that dipped into central India and adjoining Bay of Bengal.
In this manner, the ECMWF forecast template, the farthest available on Friday, took the system tracking to the east from north Arabian Sea for a likely landfall over southwest Gujarat by June 7.
The agency had initially suggested that the system would continue to track north-northwest and cross the Oman coast in a replay of year 2007 when Super Cyclone Gonu.
Category:
IMD Report,
India,
South West Monsoon,
Summer-10
Monsoon onset likely in next 3-4 days (as of 27-May-10)
Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during the next three to four days.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday cited numerical weather predictions to project the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea during the next two to three days.
Meanwhile, a leading US-based forecaster has said that the present MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation wave) signature does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
System strength
An MJO wave travels periodically from west to east in the higher atmosphere and has alternating ‘dry' (suppressed rain) and ‘wet' (rainy weather) phases. It has a major influence on ground weather, especially during monsoon.
While an upper air system is a good augury for the onset of the seasonal rains along the Kerala coast, there are apprehensions that the system descend to the lower levels and start strengthening.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had indicated on Wednesday that the system may attain cyclonic strength early next month. The formation of a cyclone during the onset period is bad enough thanks to its capacity to rally entire moisture around itself and leave hardly anything for the mainland.
What is worse is the model prediction suggesting a north-northwest track to the system and away from the Kerala coast. A few models, though, suggested a calibrated eastward movement to the Kerala/Karnataka coast.
A majority of the models seemed to suggest that the system could be declared a cyclone by June 2 over east-central Arabian Sea. In a track reminiscent of the Super Cyclone Gonu of year 2007, this system might track further north-northwest and make an eventual landfall over Oman/Gulf of Eden.
WARMEST POOL
What will apparently propel the system is the presence of a very warm (31 to 32 degree Celsius) pool of seawater lying north-northwest from east-central Arabian Sea towards the Oman coast.
While the ECMWF has retained its outlook, a few others also have kept a watch for a possible system formation on Thursday.
Among them are the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
According to the Tropical Extended Area Prediction System of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, winds around the southeast Arabian Sea represented a smorgasbord of southwesterly, westerly and northwesterly flows. This area of unsettled weather would now see increasingly organised convergence accompanied by convection prior to formation of the upper air cyclonic circulation.
The US-based forecaster was of the view that the present MJO phase does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
The southwest coast had wasted a golden opportunity during the last active phase of the MJO wave when the southwesterly flows precipitated the onset over Sri Lanka. The ‘miss' was occasioned by the spinning up of cyclone ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal that mopped up available moisture feed and rained it over Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
The next active phase of the MJO wave would not set in before June 10, which would also coincide with the blow-over of the projected cyclone in the Arabian Sea.
According to the US-based forecaster, equatorial Indian Ocean basin is presently in the suppressed phase of the MJO whereas Southeast Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and parts of the West Pacific are presently in the active phase.
Suppressed MJO convection is likely to progress northward across India into early June, with the next active phase developing over the equatorial Indian Ocean not before June 10.
Such a pattern would not likely result in enhanced rainfall averaged over India until after June 15. The subsequent couple of weeks could be quite wet over the monsoon region, according to him.
The outgoing long-wave radiation projections, a proxy for the presence of clouds, also suggest that the heaviest rainfall at that time would favour eastern India and the Bay of Bengal.
Category:
IMD Report,
India,
South West Monsoon
If the predicted Arabian sea Cyclone/depression forms, Is it going to be a Monsoon spoiler over Kerala coast ???.. http://ow.ly/i/1NYs
GFS :: On 31-May, the predicted Arabian sea cyclone / depression will intensify and lay over N. Lakshadweep islands.. http://ow.ly/i/1NYq
9am, S-W monsoon organizing well ... showers over south kerala coast continues ... http://ow.ly/i/1NXT
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)