Saturday, May 29, 2010
@jothishnair1010 >> Pls report about rain & monsoon from Trivandrum. If possible upload some snapshots as well. Put a msg to us. Thanks.
RT @nextvivek: loving trivandrum rains :D (10:02pm)
RT @rsrijith: Drenched in Rain. Feels like back in kerala. :) (9:57pm)
RT @sunnypokkathil: @weatherofindia good rains at Kottayam now (8:19am)
The Arabian sea system is predicted to move North.. this may DRY up the kerala coast for next 1 week. Keep ur fingers crossed.
@I_Sharat >> Follow our tweets for more info... or visit www.indianweatherman.com
@I_Sharat >>> a minor Monsoon current is already over South Kerala... Met. dept. will announce the monsoon when the Current becomes strong.
GFS :: Predicts a cyclone / depression West of Goa on 1-Jun... this may spoil the initial widespread monsoon showers for Kerala .
Raining in Bangalore as well ..!!
RT @manionweb: Wov...its raining in bangalore... (6:20pm)
It's raining in Kolkata as well..!!
RT @Niloothecombo: After a sultry day its, raining in kolkata again ,,, relief !!!! (6:13pm)
RT @shreyasonline: @RohanChandane ya rain with some ice pellets in New Delhi too!
RT @Upasana_Dixit: Delhi smells 'clean' right now. Mostly mud and wet grass, smell of freshness.
RT @summer_yellow: Rain at south end of Kerala and Very hot at north end of Kerala (4:42pm)
RT @craig5655: @sardesairajdeep yeh we are already getting rain sporadically in kerala for the lsat week or so
RT @Manoj100: RT @sardesairajdeep: best news of the day: light rain in delhi, monsoon set to hit kerala within next 48 hours.
Chennai - Temperature now 6:25pm is 32.2Â°C... and with stiff breeze from S-E
RT @akashkumarsingh: @weatherofindia it s raining in delhi (4:06pm)
Chennai - Sea breeze has set in well... temperature goin down fast.. now 2:40pm its 37.7Â°C
Chennai - ** Good News **... signs of Sea breeze setting in from EAST now 2:16pm and temp. now is 41.1 deg C.. will go down in another 1 hr.
Rainfall occurred at many places over Kerala. Isolated rainfall occurred over Tamil Nadu, Lakshadweep and Coastal Andhrapradesh . Dry weather prevailed over Karnataka, Telangana and Rayalaseema.
Salem and Mancompu (Alapuzha dt.) recorded a heavy rainfall of 10 and 7 centimetres respectively .
The other chief amounts of rainfall recorded in Centimetres are:
Virudhunagar 6, Mavelikkara (Alapuzha dt.) 5, Kuzhithurai (Kanyakumari dt), Sendamangalam (Namakkal dt.) and Varkala (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 4 each, Mangalapuram and Tiruchengode (both Namakkal dt.), Sivakasi and Neyyattinkara (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 3 each, Pechiparai and Thuckalay (both Kanyakumari dt.), Rasipuram (Namakkal dt.) , Tiruchirapalli Airport, Srivilliputhur (Virudhunagar dt.), Cherthala (Alapuzha dt.) , Thiruvananthapuram, Thiruvananthapuram Airport and Nedumangad (Thiruvananthapuram dt.) 2 each and Yercaud, Padallur and Vembavur (both Perambalur dt.), Marungapuri (Tiruchirapalli dt.), Devala (Nilgiris dt.), Sathur (Virudhunagar dt.), Vythiri (Wayanad dt.), Thrissur, Kunnamkulam (Thrissur dt.), CIAL Kochi, Peermedu (Idukki dt.), Konni (Pathanamthitta dt.) Kollam, Minicoy and Vishakapattinam 1 each.
Heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh
On Friday, the maximum temperature rose at one or two places over Telangana , South coastal Andhrapradesh, fell markedly at one or two places over North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, fell at one or two places over Interior Tamilnadu and changed little elsewhere over the region.
They were largely above normal at many places over Coastal Andhra Pradesh, markedly above normal at one or two places over Telangana, Coastal Karnataka, North coastal Tamilnadu, rest coastal Andhrapradesh, appreciably above normal at a few places over Kerala, interior Tamilnadu rest north coastal Tamilnadu , North interior Karnataka, rest Telangana, Rayalaseema, above normal at one or two places over rest Coastal Karnataka, South interior Karnataka , rest Rayalaseema, rest interior Tamilnadu , below normal at one or two places over South Coastal Tamil Nadu and were generally normal over rest of the region.
Number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 45 degree Celsius in the region.
On 28-May, highest maximum temperature of 45.9Â°C was recorded at Shivpuri (Madhya Pradesh).
Dust raising winds would prevail over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana, Delhi and W est Uttar Pradesh during next 2 days.
Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala and Coastal Karnataka during next 24 hours and increase thereafter.
Maximum temperatures have fallen by 4 - 7Â°C over Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi,U.P & n. coast A.P
Chennai - Temperature goin up again.. 41.4Â°C at 2:02pm
@GopinathRavi >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com
@Ernestnk >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com... now its 41.2 deg C
@patimrinal >> Follow our tweets for latest Chennai temperature or visit www.indianweatherman.com
RT @patimrinal: Banagalore is getting hotter... it too hot outside... never felt thi shot since I came back from Chennai...
RT @GopinathRavi: back to the boiling pot.. chennai
Chennai - present wind direction is W-S-W... soon it should change to E-S-E .. may be in another 1 hr.. till then enjoy the.. 41.2Â°C
Chennai - is baking.. if the Sea breeze doesn't set in another 30 min, then the temp will touch 43 deg C before 3:30pm.
Chennai - ** All time high for this year 2010 ** .. records a high temp. just now .. 41.2Â°C (1:51pm)
@saranjith >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.
RT @arunkumaranusuy: Enjoying in trivandrum, its raining here and the climate is to good... (1:49pm)
RT @saranjith: soaked! (@ museum, trivandrum) (1:24pm)
RT @Dhan_an_JAY: @DiFo87 Good Morning :):) enjoy Bangalore .. here back TRIVANDRUM is surviving stupid rainy weather :):) (12:29pm)
RT @nikhilnarayanan: Is this the Monsoon? Who cares if it's pre Monsoon. I'm getting drenched in Trivandrum. (12:28pm)
@sulus88 >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.
@jkizhakkel >>> Keep tracking www.indianweatherman.com or follow our tweets for Latest on Monsoon.
RT @Akku36: Rain rain cool day kerala (6:37am)
@Sukanyeah >> Any rain now? pls update ur location in Kerala? If possible post a snap shot of weather from ur place. Thanks
RT @Sukanyeah: its heavy rain out here in kerala. i am enjoying it. wish my man was also with me. (8:31am)
RT @szri: Raining Sporadically.Trivandrum Weather today is Fab. (8:05am)
IMD said that the â€˜heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country to facilitate S-W monsoon.
IMD models show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, and quantity of moisture along the west coast.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said that the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala would occur ‘around May 31'.
The IMD had, on May 14, issued the forecast for onset of monsoon over Kerala on May 30 with a model error of 4 days.
It based its latest outlook on interpretation of latest meteorological conditions and also guidance of numerical weather models.
There is also good possibility for the development of a monsoon onset vortex (a small but intense low-pressure system), off the Kerala coast during this period.
But the movement of the vortex is predicted to be away from the west coast, in a north-northwesterly direction, the IMD said.
(Numerical weather model predictions seemed to suggest rapid development of this system into a likely cyclonic storm.
These predictions showed the system spinning away into the west-northwest direction but posited half-way into north Arabian Sea by June 4 up to which forecasts were available.)
Westerlies may strengthen
It is expected that the vortex would help strengthen the southwesterly winds along the west coast, the IMD said.
Numerical models indicate possibility of strengthening of the cross equatorial monsoon flow along the Indian longitudes.
The IMD operational models also show strengthening of lower level westerlies with increase in depth, northward extension and quantity of moisture content along the west coast.
Models are indicating development of organised convection over the South Arabian Sea from Sunday onwards.
Referring to two major monsoon facilitators, the IMD said that the ‘heat low' has established over the northwestern parts of the country.
In this manner, the north-south pressure gradient (high in south to low over northwest) has strengthened, particularly over the Bay of Bengal.
There is also possibility of further advance of monsoon up to coastal Karnataka and southern parts of Tamil Nadu by around June 1.
Forecast from various global models indicates better circulation features conducive for monsoon during June 4 to 10 with strengthening of the cross equatorial flow over south Arabian Sea.
Models are also indicating increase of rainfall over the west coast of India during this week, the IMD outlook said.
Under these meteorological conditions, there is also possibility of advance of monsoon up to south Konkan and Goa along the west coast and also over parts of the Northeastern States.
Meanwhile on Friday, satellite pictures made available by the US National Weather Service at 5.15 p.m. showed convection mostly concentrated to east-central Arabian Sea.
Some of the clouds streaked across adjoining east and southeast Arabian Sea reaching into Kerala and adjoining south Arabian Sea.
A number of international models had already hinted the cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea over the next few days, close on the heels of monsoon onset over Kerala coast.
Some of these models suggested a changed track for the brewing system, which could first approach the Kerala-Karnataka coast initially.
The system might just toy with the coast by May 31-June 1, before shifting gears and start tracking north along the west coast.
It would then start re-curving north-northwest as models suggested earlier, and head into the north Arabian Sea by June 4.
But from here, models tend to disagree with the likely track of the storm in view of the arrival of a westerly trough from the northwest that would cut across Pakistan into north Arabian Sea.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in its update on Friday suggested that the westerly trough would ‘appropriate' the storm and steer it towards the east.
This was the case with Cyclone ‘Laila' that hit the Andhra Pradesh coast last week, before being steered north-northeast by a passing westerly trough that dipped into central India and adjoining Bay of Bengal.
In this manner, the ECMWF forecast template, the farthest available on Friday, took the system tracking to the east from north Arabian Sea for a likely landfall over southwest Gujarat by June 7.
The agency had initially suggested that the system would continue to track north-northwest and cross the Oman coast in a replay of year 2007 when Super Cyclone Gonu.
Conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala during the next three to four days.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Thursday cited numerical weather predictions to project the formation of an upper air cyclonic circulation over southeast Arabian Sea during the next two to three days.
Meanwhile, a leading US-based forecaster has said that the present MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation wave) signature does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
An MJO wave travels periodically from west to east in the higher atmosphere and has alternating ‘dry' (suppressed rain) and ‘wet' (rainy weather) phases. It has a major influence on ground weather, especially during monsoon.
While an upper air system is a good augury for the onset of the seasonal rains along the Kerala coast, there are apprehensions that the system descend to the lower levels and start strengthening.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) had indicated on Wednesday that the system may attain cyclonic strength early next month. The formation of a cyclone during the onset period is bad enough thanks to its capacity to rally entire moisture around itself and leave hardly anything for the mainland.
What is worse is the model prediction suggesting a north-northwest track to the system and away from the Kerala coast. A few models, though, suggested a calibrated eastward movement to the Kerala/Karnataka coast.
A majority of the models seemed to suggest that the system could be declared a cyclone by June 2 over east-central Arabian Sea. In a track reminiscent of the Super Cyclone Gonu of year 2007, this system might track further north-northwest and make an eventual landfall over Oman/Gulf of Eden.
What will apparently propel the system is the presence of a very warm (31 to 32 degree Celsius) pool of seawater lying north-northwest from east-central Arabian Sea towards the Oman coast.
While the ECMWF has retained its outlook, a few others also have kept a watch for a possible system formation on Thursday.
Among them are the Global Forecasting System (GFS) of the Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre, the Canadian Meteorological Centre and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) model of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP).
According to the Tropical Extended Area Prediction System of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, winds around the southeast Arabian Sea represented a smorgasbord of southwesterly, westerly and northwesterly flows. This area of unsettled weather would now see increasingly organised convergence accompanied by convection prior to formation of the upper air cyclonic circulation.
The US-based forecaster was of the view that the present MJO phase does not favour full monsoon onset over India until at least a few days after June 10.
The southwest coast had wasted a golden opportunity during the last active phase of the MJO wave when the southwesterly flows precipitated the onset over Sri Lanka. The ‘miss' was occasioned by the spinning up of cyclone ‘Laila' in the Bay of Bengal that mopped up available moisture feed and rained it over Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.
The next active phase of the MJO wave would not set in before June 10, which would also coincide with the blow-over of the projected cyclone in the Arabian Sea.
According to the US-based forecaster, equatorial Indian Ocean basin is presently in the suppressed phase of the MJO whereas Southeast Asia, the Bay of Bengal, and parts of the West Pacific are presently in the active phase.
Suppressed MJO convection is likely to progress northward across India into early June, with the next active phase developing over the equatorial Indian Ocean not before June 10.
Such a pattern would not likely result in enhanced rainfall averaged over India until after June 15. The subsequent couple of weeks could be quite wet over the monsoon region, according to him.
The outgoing long-wave radiation projections, a proxy for the presence of clouds, also suggest that the heaviest rainfall at that time would favour eastern India and the Bay of Bengal.
Nagercoil - After medium intermittent showers overnight and into early morning. Now its cloudy.