Wednesday, November 30, 2011

BBC new look weather site .. http://ow.ly/7JJEe .. Check chennai or India weather here ... http://ping.fm/BLsPh
@sankararaman >> Rain for chennai may start again from 5/6-Dec .. we'll keep it updated! Check back on 2-Dec for a clear forecast on this.
Heavy rain over Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu on 29-Nov.. Mylaudy 10cm, Nagercoil 9cm
RT @aditya_ug: @weatherofindia was raining yesterday. Heavily. South Goa.
chennai - after a warm day.. now 4:48pm temperature going down at a fast rate.. 28.1 C
RT @keaweather: Early indications are for above normal rains in December for Tamilnadu
A strong Anti-Cyclone will be over Gujarat from tomorrow till 3-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/moOs
"05A" will die over N.central Arabian sea on 2-Dec.. before that some showers may creep into S. Pakistan.. http://ow.ly/i/moNt
Isolated T.showers will continue over S. Tamilnadu till 5-Dec. before the next weather system hits the coast on 5/6-Dec http://ow.ly/i/moMV
Many models suggest that a fresh UAC will form over S. Bay on 1-Dec.. and it's expected to move N-W.
Today's IMD GFS also suggests a LOW to hit Central coastal Tamilnadu on 5/6/7-Dec... http://ow.ly/i/moMe
COLA models repeatedly forecasting a Depression or LOW to hit Central coastal Tamilnadu on 5/6/7-Dec.. http://ow.ly/i/moL3
FOG warning for E. UP, Bihar, Bengal and parts of Assam.
D.Depression "05A" will move slowly W-N-W and dissipate over the sea during next 24 hours.. http://ow.ly/i/moJY
Latest on AS-4 as on 12noon IST Wednesday:

As per the latest NRl/JTWC report, AS-4 has weakened in the last 6 hrs. Going fairly well in accordance with Vagaries' estimate, this system is now expected to fizzle out over the A.Sea in the next 36 hrs. The centre is currently at 17N and 64E, roughly 900 kms W/SW of Mumbai.Cloud bands to the NW of the centre persist, with winds at 25 knts in that region.

As it weakens, Sur and the regions around it in Oman can expect medium rains and cloudy weather North up to Muscat is possible.

As mentioned, cloudy weather for Karachi today, stuffy and hot. 

More later.



Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Today, E.central Arabian sea cyclone "05A" is showing more signs of weakening .. http://ow.ly/i/mjzv
RT @kmathan: @weatherofindia mild drizzle at chengalpattu since morning...
chennai - Odd drizzles and sharp shower possible in some zones today.
max. temperatures rose by 2 to ­3 C over parts of N. Maharashtra,
coastal Andhra, interior Karnataka, S.Kerala and S.Tamilnadu on 28-Nov.
chennai - having a mild and cloudy day with some drizzles around and temp. now 1:01pm is 27.2 C
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 9.50am, Clear blue skies, sunny and cold. No clouds today.. a pic http://ping.fm/OmXEG

Monday, November 28, 2011

RT @shanpati: @weatherofindia Cloudy sky all day here in Mumbai.... Such a boring day.. Bring back the winter please.
RT @isaakshi: "@NewIndianXpress Heavy rain hits Sabarimala pilgrims: http://bit.ly/vFck7j
RT @akaasi: Heavy downpour south of Coimbatore for the past 45 minutes @weatherofindia (4:49pm)
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Baroda 1.30pm, Overcast sky, cool and pleasant. a pic http://ping.fm/0UZPe

Sunday, November 27, 2011

"05A" - to move N-W, intensify and die over Sea ! ... http://ow.ly/7GeFr
@nravs >> chennai - will have reduced intensity intermittent sharp showers till Wednesday morning !
Sharp showers to continue ALL along Tamilnadu coast and S. coastal Andhra till Wednesday, 30-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/mcGw
chennai - will have more sharp showers from early hours again and the rain intensity will be reduced.
Today most of the heavy showers are concentrated over S.coastal Andhra .. from morning till now 8:40pm
"3 days heavy Rain in jaffna." -- posted by one of our Reader from Jaffna on 26-Nov-2011

"05A" - to move N-W, intensify and die over Sea !

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
-----------------------------

271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTHWEST OF 
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE 
SYSTEM IS STILL BEING SHEARED BY SOUTHEASTERLIES ALOFT, CONVECTION 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL 
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 05A UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE SYSTEM BUT ALSO SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE STORM. 
THE ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA 
AND WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA DURING THE NEXT 
72 HOURS. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EASE AS THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE REDUCED SHEAR 
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. BEYOND 19 
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE 
DRAMATICALLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THERE IS 
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. 
NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATE THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO 
CREST THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PAKISTAN AS A LOW-GRADE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE, BUT GFDN, ECMWF, AND EGRR TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE 
SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH 
ARABIAN SEA. LONG RANGE PROGS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO THE LONG 
RANGE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WILL 
MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH 
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE 
FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BUT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OVER 
WATER NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16 FEET.

Latest Satellite IR shot of "05A"
------------------------------------------------------

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------

IMD & COLA GFS prediction
--------------------------------------------
IMD GFS predicts that "05A" will fizzle out over N-Central Arabian sea on 1-Dec-2011.


But COLA GFS predicts that the system make weaken and crash over Pakistan, Gujarat coast on 1-Dec-2011.
Meanwhile N-E monsoon will be active along entire Tamilnadu coast till Tuesday, 29-Nov-2011

RT @prasademphatic: Water...water...water..everywhere..Chennai water-logged totally...venture out (either in car or bike) at your own peril!
chennai - From afternoon most of the showers originating from Bay are not reaching coast. Signs of rain intensity goin down !
RT @pinktoothjourno: Holiday declared for all schools in Chennai tommorrow (Monday) due to heavy rainM chennai
Next easterlies will enter into S-E Bay on 3-Dec !!
RT @rajugana: Baroda 5.00pm, Surprisingly...after a long time, Cloudy sky since afternoon... a pic http://ping.fm/r90EG
Some Tamil news channels are reporting "a low pressure over Bay and it's intensifying" ??? Depression is over S-E Arabian sea not in Bay
@professorsrini @docenvy >> More intermittent showers forecast for Pondicherry, Cuddalore for next 24hrs... May continue till mornin, 29-Nov

Saturday, November 26, 2011

The latest on AS-4 as on Saturday, 26th night:

System has moved W/NW in the last 6 hrs from this blog report, and is now positioned at 8.7N and 74.9E. Actual position is 200 kms SW of Cochin.With core pressure at 996 mb the eastern segment of the system is showing winds at 35-40 knts (max). Strengthening is due to increase in vertical wind shear to 25 knts (positive).
There is active precipitation around the centre and to the West of the system centre. As predicted yesterday, Kerala and the Lakshdweep Islands had heavy rainfall on Saturday (today). Thiruvananthpuram and Agathi received 40 mms each. Minicoy had 34 mms.

Meanwhile in 24 hrs ended Saturday morning, Venkatgir (Nellore Dist) in T.N. had a very heavy downpour of 230 mms, and Uthiramerur (Kanchipuram dt) received 200 mms. In T.N,hill station Kodai recieved 112 mms with the day's high at 14c on Friday.Rainfall in T.N will decrease from Sunday.

Due to favourable SST at 31c, and possible increase in wind shear, system will deepen a bit more till Monday, when surface winds would reach a max of up to 50 knts, and as mentioned, will start to weaken from Tuesday and fizzle out in a couple of days.Further track will be NW as shown in Vagaries map.

I expect some light rain on the coastal regions of South Gujarat and Konkan on Monday due to the spiralling of the clouds from the system, during its peak period (Monday). After that the clouding should decrease as AS-4 weakens.
chennai - will have more showers after 2am and towards morning !
"05A" - still a depression and moved N-W slowly ... http://ow.ly/7FKwV
Next easterly wave and a LOW pressure over S. Bay expected around 5-Dec !!!
Heavy rain for N.coastal Tamilnadu, chennai till morning of Tuesday, 29-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/m9iz
RT @ramprakash4790: Everywhere in chennai its d same situation RT @ranganaathan Its raining heavily in Nungmbakkam. Worse than y'day
Heavy rain forecast for Kanyakumari district, Tamilnadu on 27,28-Nov.
"05A" will intensify further and move N-W into Arabian sea .. http://ow.ly/i/m9hf

"05A" - still a depression and moved N-W slowly

Position :: 8.7 N and 74.9 E
Pressure :: 

JTWC warning
----------------------------

261500Z POSITION NEAR 9.2N 74.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM SOUTHWEST OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE 
SYSTEM STRUGGLING AGAINST THE EFFECTS OF EASTERLY WIND SHEAR. 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED DOWNSTREAM OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), NEW CONVECTION IS CONSISTENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING NEAR THE SYSTEM CORE. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES 
THE NEW CONVECTION IS DEEPENING AND A 261119Z SSMI IMAGE SHOWS WELL-
ORGANIZED AND THICK LOW LEVEL BANDING AROUND THE LLCC. THE LATEST 
AMSUB RADIAL CROSS SECTION ALSO VERIFIES THE PRESENCE OF A WARM MID-
LEVEL ANOMALY. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE TC 05A IS 
BRINGING ITS MOISTURE PACKAGE ALONG AND SATURATING THE ENVIRONMENT 
AHEAD OF THE STORM. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS WEIGHTED 
TOWARDS A 260410Z ASCAT IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT 
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE 
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A LIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS 
UNDERNEATH A BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FIELD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS 
INCREASED TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT 
DESPITE THE SHEAR, THERE IS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. TC 05A IS BEING DRIVEN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY A LOW- 
TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA AND IS 
EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE STEADILY OVER THE THREE DAYS, UNTIL IT IS 
SITUATED JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE 
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THAT ANTICYCLONE AND INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS 
IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND INTO A REGION OF 
LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 05A WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY JUST PRIOR 
TO CRESTING THE RIDGE AXIS, NEAR TAU 96 AND 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. ONCE TC 05A ROUNDS THE RIDGE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL 
INCREASE TO OVER 30 KNOTS. CURRENTLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG 
TRACK ARE A HIGHLY FAVORABLE 31 DEGREES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT REGARDING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WITH 
RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH 
LATITUDE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT IN PREDICTING THAT 
TC 05A WILL STRUGGLE TO INTENSIFY BEYOND 50 KNOTS, AND WILL REACH 
PEAK INTENSITY JUST PRIOR TO RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET. 


IMD warning 1:30pm
-----------------------------------------

The depression over Comorin area and neighbourhood moved west-northwestwards and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 26th November 2011 over Comorin and adjoining Maldives and Lakshadeep area near latitude 8.00N and longitude 75.5.0E, about 150 km south-southwest of Thiruvananthapuram (Kerala), 300 km east-southeast of Minicoy (Lakshadeep Island), 500 km west-northwest of Colombo (Sri Lanka) and 500 km north-northeast of Male (Maldives). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards across Lakshadweep area and intensify into a deep depression during next 48 hrs.
Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with heavy rainfall at a few places and isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala and Lakshadweep Islands during next 48 hrs.
Squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph is likely to prevail along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during the same period.
Fishermen are advised not to venture into the Sea along and off south Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, Kerala, south Karnataka coasts and Lakshadweep area during next 48 hours.



Latest Satellite IR shot
--------------------------------------



JTWC projected path
----------------------------------


IMD GFS projected path
---------------------------------------

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea and moving N-W away from Kerala ... http://ow.ly/7Fx5L
Heavy rains again forecast for S. tip Tamilnadu, central, N-coastal Tamilnadu for Today and Sunday (27-Nov)
chennai - more intermittent sharp showers forecast all thru the day, for Sunday and Monday as well !
chennai - having a break now 9:42am after sharp showers lashed the city from early hours.

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Wind :: up to 60 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
---------------------------------

260300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252127Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VALIDATED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 05B IS 
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WITH 
EXCELLENT RADIAL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES 
ARE HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS).  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE 
RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE LATER TAUS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. THIS FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 250751Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTIO21 PGTW 250800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 
11 FEET. 

JTWC projected path 
--------------------------------------


Latest satellite IR shot
----------------------------------


Meanwhile North East monsoon will be Very active along entire Tamilnadu coast. Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast for another 2 days.
"98B" is now a Cyclone over S-E corner Arabian sea, just west of Trivandrum .. now it's named as "05A". It'll continue to move N-W
RT @arivukkarasu: @weatherofindia Its 4.04 AM and raining in Coimbatore !

Friday, November 25, 2011

WARNING :: "98B" is intensifying fast.. Heavy rain and wind forecast along S. tip Tamilnadu and along S. kerala coast from Now till Sunday
8:30pm, "98B" is taking good shape and intensifying fast. Heavy rain battering C,N. coastal tamilnadu and more to come. http://ow.ly/i/m53T
"98B" - Having signs of a Cyclone ! and moving N-W ... http://ow.ly/7EX1f

"98B" - Having signs of a Cyclone ! and moving N-W

Now its a "well marked low"
Position :: 4.9 N and 78.3 E
Pressure :: 1001 mb
Wind :: 30 to 60 Km/Hr

JTWC warning
------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.1N 79.3E TO 10.4N 72.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
78.3E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 
79.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 78.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP PERIPHERAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVERGING NORTHERLIES INTO WESTERLIES. A 250431Z ASCAT IMAGE 
INDICATES 25 KNOT EASTERLIES POLEWARD OF 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250253Z 37 GHZ SSMIS 
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE WITH A LARGE, SOMEWHAT LINEAR, CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
THE LLCC IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK (05-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC, 
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW, AND ACTIVE PHASE OF 
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IN THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

IMD warning
----------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot, 
----------------------------------------


JTWC projected path
----------------------------------


Model prediction
------------------------------------
By morning of 26-Nov.. the system is expected to enter into S-E corner of Arabian sea just S-W of Trivandrum and by morning of 27-Nov.. it's expected to move N-W further into Arabian sea and intensify !
Heavy rain to continue all along Tamilnadu coast till evening of 27-Nov-2011.

RT @ravi_2kpp: An hour back black clouds moving towards north near OMR sholinganalur chennai @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/Bnenq
JTWC has issued a warning for 98B :: "SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS"
W.D will start affecting N-W Kashmir from 26-Nov and isolated Heavy Snow possible !
Very heavy rainfall warning for isolated places along Tamilnadu coast and over S. tip of Tamilnadu till Sunday evening.
Heavy rain for entire Tamilnadu coast will continue till Sunday.. http://ow.ly/i/m49n
chennai - intermittent heavy or sharp showers will continue till Monday, 28-Nov-2011 evening
Models predict that the "98B" will enter into S-E corner Arabian sea along S. kerala coast on morning of 26-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/m48F
4:30pm, "98B" is taking a nice shape just below S. tip of Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/m48a
RT @jyothish46: Temple pond in Kerala during rain Godsowncountry http://ping.fm/w1fvg
RT @ssrivatsan: .@weatherofindia Heavy Rain Started already in Perungudi Chennai (2:27pm)
chennai - 2:22pm, another round of Heavy rain approaching city coast in another 15 min

Thursday, November 24, 2011

Location Position as on Thursday Evening:
The UAC has descended to sea level, and is at 3N and 82E, South of Sri Lanka. Core pressure at 1004 mb and 15 knts winds.
Anyway,do not under estimate its strength. Its maximum effect is in Sri Lanka. Chief amounts of rainfall in Sri Lanka today: Auradhapura 64 mms, Tricomalee 60 mms, Mannar 55 mms, Jaffna 43 mms.
chennai - Heavy rain now 9:25pm over pallavaram zone
RT @ravi_2kpp: மழை ஊத்திங் here in பெருங்குடி சென்னை... @weatherofindia Raining in Perungudi .. chennai (8:54pm)
Latest position of S-W Bay circulation is 2.9N and 82.9E... http://ow.ly/i/m0b5
chennai - good strong air current seen from E-N-E up to 7.5km height
chennai - a strong drizzle may be approaching S. chennai coast in another 15 min .
6pm, Entire S, central coastal Tamilnadu are getting sharp showers... and where's Srilanka?? .. http://ow.ly/i/m007
RT @chennaiweather: chennai Chennai may get heaviest rain of this season in next 48-72 hours
chennai - mild breeze from E-N-E, and having good cloud formation... Heavy showers to start after 12am tonight
A fresh W.D will touch N-W Kashmir on 26-Nov
Isolated Very heavy rain for Central, N coast Tamilnadu and S. Tip Tamilnadu on 26,27-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lZbo
Due to movement of "98B" and strong easterlies, Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast from morning of 25-Nov. http://ow.ly/i/lZb2
"98B" will touch S. Tip of Tamilnadu and emerge into S-E corner Arabian sea along Kerala coast on noon of 27-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lZah
Latest Satellite shot shows Heavy rain over Srilanka, sharp showers over Central coast Tamilnadu and N.Gulf Mannar.. http://ow.ly/i/lZ9S
Today 5:30am, circulation "98B" was located just S-S-E of Srilanka.. and strong easterlies is nearing Tamilnadu coast. http://ow.ly/i/lZ9j
FOG :: Visibility may reduce below 200 m over pockets of Punjab, Haryana, Delhi,
Uttar Pradesh, N-W Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours
On 23-Nov, lowest minimum temperature of 8.0 C was recorded at Pantnagar (Uttarakhand)
Chennai - showers started almost 20hours earlier

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

"98B" - Not to become as Cyclone ! ... http://ow.ly/7DcJ6

"98B" - Not to become as Cyclone !

Position :: 3.0 N and 82.2 E
Pressure :: 1008mb


JTWC warning
------------------------------

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 89.5E, 
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A DISTURBED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA.  THIS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL IN SURFACE ANALYSIS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL POCKET OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE 
AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE 29-30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING THIS 
CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.


Latest Satellite IR shot of system
--------------------------------------------------

Latest GFS model predicts that the system will travel WEST towards S. Srilanka on evening of 24-Nov. Then it'll move W-N-W into mouth of Gulf Mannar on 25-Nov and touch S.Tip of Tamilnadu and move into Arabian sea on evening of 26-Nov.


Heavy rain forecast for central, N.coastal Tamilnadu, Chennai and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu from 25-Nov to 28-Nov.



@nravs >> chennai - will have good cloud formations from tomorrow, and showers expected to start from early hours of Friday
Hacked Emails reveal Global Warming a Scam! ... http://ow.ly/7CUtL
Cold Nights over Karnataka and A.P ... http://ow.ly/7CUqb
WARNING :: Very heavy rainfall warning for Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu on 25,26-Nov and sharp showers will continue till 28-Nov.
Very heavy rainfall warning for central, N. Tamilnadu coast and S. tip Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari) on 26,27-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lUOY
Heavy/ sharp showers will start over N. Tamilnadu coast , chennai from early hrs of Friday... http://ow.ly/i/lUOm
Showers along S, central Tamilnadu coast will start from noon/evening of tomorrow... http://ow.ly/i/lUNL
Under the influence of "98B" and Easterlies.. Heavy rain for S. Tamilnadu, S. Kerala from 25-Nov till 29-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lUNl
"98B" will become as a LOW and touch S. Srilanka on 25-Nov and touch S.tip of Tamilnadu on 26-Nov and move N-W... http://ow.ly/i/lUMI
Today, "98B" has formed just along 5th parallel and it's expected movement is West towards S. Srilanka.. http://ow.ly/i/lUM5
S.Bay circulation has formed and is marked as "98B" .. expected to become as LOW and move West

Hacked Emails reveal Global Warming a Scam!



A fresh tranche of private emails exchanged between leading climate scientists throughout the last decade was released online on Tuesday. The unauthorised publication is an apparent attempt to repeat the impact of a similar release of emails on the eve of the Copenhagen climate summit in late 2009.

The initial email dump was apparently timed to disrupt the Copenhagen climate talks. It prompted three official inquiries in the UK and two in the US into the working practices of climate scientists. Although these were critical of the scientists' handling of Freedom of Information Act requests and lack of openness they did not find fault with the climate change science they had produced.

Norfolk police have said the new set of emails is "of interest" to their investigation to find the perpetrator of the initial email release who has not yet been identified.

The emails appear to be genuine, but the University of East Anglia said the "sheer volume of material" meant it was not yet able to confirm that they were. One of the emailers, the climate scientist Prof Michael Mann, has confirmed that he believes they are his messages. The lack of any emails post-dating the 2009 release suggests that they were obtained at the same time, but held back. Their release now suggests they are intended to cause maximum impact before the upcoming climate summit in Durban which starts on Monday.

Read more:  http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/11/breaking-on-eve-of-durban-climategate.html

Tuesday, November 22, 2011


Cold Nights in Southern States of Karnataka and A.P.

Cold Wave in Interior Karnataka: Lack of clouds causing loss of the day's heat has resulted in a cold wave in interior Karnataka. The lowest night temperature in the state on Tuesday morning was 9c at Hassan, which was 7c below the normal for this time. Amonst the other lows were: Chamarajanagar at 11c, Dharwad at 12c, Bijapur and Haveri at 13c and even on the coast, Karwar was 18c, 3 below.
Bangalore was a pleasant 16c and 15c at the airport.

Adjoining regions of A.P. are also experiancing low and below normal temperatures.
Adilabad was lowest at 11c in the state, and Hyderabad saw 14c on Tuesday morning. Cuddapah dropped to 16c, which may not seem low, but was 5c below normal for the place !
Visible shot of Cyclone Kenneth over open waters of E. Pacific ... BIG Eye ... winds up to 225 Kmph ... http://ow.ly/i/lPTV
chennai - expected to get heavy rain from midnight of 24-Nov till 28-Nov and beyond.. http://ow.ly/i/lOsI
Rains will start again along entire Tamilnadu coast from evening of 24-Nov.
S.Bay will pop a circulation in another 12 to 24hrs.. http://ow.ly/i/lOsp
Today's analysis show that the strong Easterlies is over S.central Bay and there are signs of circulation over S.Bay.
Today's IMD model and GFS suggests that the S.Bay LOW will form and cross S. Srilanka and crash over S. Tip Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/lOrZ
RT @aditya_ug: Winter is starting in Goa now. Nights are very chilly. @weatherofindia

Monday, November 21, 2011

5:30pm, http://ow.ly/i/lKL2 ...S. Bay below 10th parallel is showing signs of heavy convective activity
5:30pm, Sea over S. tip Tamilnadu and Gulf Mannar is very active now .. http://ow.ly/i/lKL2
RT @jayaribcm: In Kodai [lake] too this morning, punctuated the icy air with Vishnu Sahasranamam http://ping.fm/Jp0Q1
chennai - had a mild Day with some low clouds around. Now 6:37pm temp. is dropping 27.4 C .. Going to be another COLD and DRY night!
UAC will pop over S-E Bay on 23-Nov and it'll move WEST initially and it may move N-W when nearing Srilanka.. http://ow.ly/i/lKjG
A fresh easterly wave has entered into S-E Bay and moving West towards Tamilnadu coast, Expected to reach on 23/24-Nov. http://ow.ly/i/lKh1
Visibility reduced to 50m or less in dense fog over some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar
Pradesh.

Sunday, November 20, 2011

chennai - All day it was partly cloudy with low cloud formations.. and now 10:28pm also having some low clouds.. Not cold now 26.9 C
Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from 24-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/lHOx ... report.. http://ow.ly/7zvOz
Whatever the models predict about the LOW over Bay.. Heavy rains for Tamilnadu coast to start from 23/24-Nov... including chennai
But COLA model suggest the depression/ LOW to hit S. extreme Tamilnadu and S. Srilanka on 25/26-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lHMg

Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday


Publishing Next week's expected Developing situation and Weather forecast for the South. Its a 7 day estimate, and will be monitiored as it happens.
As mentioned yesterday, a UAC is likely to form off the South T.N. coast/Sri Lanka around Tuesday, 22nd November. This is likely to descend to form a sea level low in the same region within next 2 days, say around the 24th (Thursday). The said Low is expected to deepen (by then it would be numbered) and cross the Southern coast of T.N.
Squally NE winds are expected along the T.N. coast and Chennai from Thursday.
Hence, the coastal regions of T.N. and Chennai can expect increasing rainfall from Wednesday/Thursday, with heavy falls by Friday. Chennai can expect upto 7 cms on Friday, 25th. Interior T.N. can get meaningfull rains after Thursday thru Sunday.

As the system crosses the coast, the precipitation is expected to spread into North T.N. and S.interior Karnataka around Friday.

Vagaries shall keep track of this, as it is still 5/6 days away.

Vagaries expects this system to cross into the Arabian Sea in the subsequent week , and emerge as a low off the Kerala coast around Tuesday 29th.
Very difficult to foresee the movement and track at this stage (10 days in advance), but current conditonal observations and expected track study indicates a North movement, but a very slim survival chance of more than a couple of days for the system.

North India:
Due to the moving away of the W.D, ground fog occuredin the Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P. regions on Sunday morning. Visibility was low and up to 50 mtrs. Clear skies and enough moisture will create the perfect conditions for ground fog in the same areas on Sunday night/Monday morning.

Delhi's day temperatures will be around 27c on Monday, with fog reducing visibility to 0.2 kms in the morning hours, while the night is expected to drop to 12c.
Chandigarh will be in the 25c - 12c range.

With no W.D. approaching, Pakistan should be dry. A fall in the night temperatures could be expected in the Sindh regions from Monday night.
Karachi heated up to 35c on Monday, in line with the adjoining coastal regions of India. East dominating winds were prevailing for most of the day, preventing the SW sea breeze from setting in. With the current minimum at 18c, it is expected that a marginal cooling trend will be seen from Monday night. Should expect a low of 17/18c by Tuesday/Wednesday.

Mumbai:
With the winds veering more to the East as expected on Sunday, Mumbai Colaba hit the predicted high of 36c, while S'Cruz was almost same at35.8c.
Mumbai retains the 2nd place in Asia on Sunday, while Laem Chabang (Thailand ) was highest at 37c.
Expecting the trend continuing on Monday, with the high at 35/36c. Nights will get cooler from Monday/Tuesday. Monday and Tuesday minimum will be about 18/19c at S'Cruz and 22/23c at Colaba.
Cloudy conditions possibly returning on Friday (due to situation explained above).
Pune will be warm in the day on Monday and Tuesday. Day's high will be 31c and low a comfortable 10/11c. Cloudy weather and rise in night temperatures from Friday.

IMD GFS still predicts a Depression to hit along N,central Tamilnadu coast on 26-Nov .. http://ow.ly/i/lHLW
S. Bay will pop a circulation above 5th parallel on 24-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/lHLz
A strong easterlies will enter into S-E corner Bay from 21-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lHL6 ... this easterlies will pop a LOW over S. Bay
Showers for S. Tamilnadu will start again from 22-Nov... and more to come till 29-Nov.
Vagaries sees another system for the AS off the west coast next week end....more in tonite's blog (by 10 pm IST)



Saturday, November 19, 2011

IMD GFS suggests a Depression to hit along N,central Tamilnadu coast on 26/27-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/lDum
COLA model suggests that the LOW will emerge into S. Gulf Mannar on 25/26-Nov, and heavy rain forecast all along Tamilnadu coast from 23-Nov
S. Bay just above 5th parallel will produce a LOW on 22-Nov.. which is expected to travel West and crash over S,S-E Srilanka
chennai - today touched a min. temp. of 19.3 C (5:46am) ... another COLD morning ahead
chennai - Cold morning, DRY and Bright day with max at 30 deg C and now 6:55pm temp. going down fast .. 27.4 C. "a COLD night ahead"
RT @hashkerala: RT @ultimatenewsnet: Vegetable prices ease in the State as rain stops in Tamil Nadu http://dlvr.it/wf55n Kerala

Friday, November 18, 2011

chennai - can expect DRY spell till evening of 22-Nov.. except for an ODD sharp shower tomorrow.
N-W Kashmir may get Snow / rain till 20-Nov.. due to the present weak W.D
From today rain will be over S, coastal Tamilnadu and fresh round of rain are expected to be back on 23-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lxWd
S-E Bay will pop a UAC on 21/22 -Nov ... and it's expected to travel WEST and crash over S,S-E Srilanka.. http://ow.ly/i/lxVK
Rain to stay over S extreme Tamilnadu till 22-Nov and beyond.. meanwhile very less chance of Rain over N,central Tamilnadu till 21-Nov
chennai - records 4cm till 8:30am of 18-Nov-2011
Easterly wave will continue over extreme south Peninsular India during next 2 days
RT @rajugana: Baroda 12.50pm, Clear skies, hot and humid in the afternoon, Nights are cold with morning dews around; temp 35C-19C range.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

chennai - Showers will start again after 11pm
All models indicate a BREAK in rain from 21-Nov to 23-Nov for entire Tamilnadu. Before moving into a VERY wet last week. http://ow.ly/i/ltZL
On 16-Nov, lowest minimum temperature of 9.1 C has been recorded at Jalgaon (Maharashtra)
Due to weak momentum and insufficient surface energy, BB-10 has failed to develop, and is stationed as a low at 1010 mb, off the T.N. coast. It has spread its clouding on to the T.N. coast. After all it is a system, though weak, and is expected to precipitate rain along the T.N. coast and interiors of the state during the week end.
In fact, by Saturday, as the low dissipates on the shores, we can expect some heavy rains in some pockets along the coast. Chennai too can get  some heavy showers by Sunday.

Vagaries had mentioned of a W.D. approaching our region a few days back. Now, it is expected to move into Northern Pakistan by Friday, and Kashmir region by Saturday. 
I do hope, though the W.D. is not strong, that after the passing of the system, the winds along the west coast change direction ( to NW) and effectively cool down the Gujarat and Maharashtra coastal belt.


chennai - got 4cm of rain till 8:30am... more showers expected till tomorrow evening

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

Chennai - sharp showers approaching from N-E. City will get rain after 1am. Mahabalipuram getting showers now 11:38pm
An anti-cyclone over Central India, swirling winds clockwise, has resulted in hot, dry winds blowing NE onto the Saurashtra and S.Gujarat/N.Konkan regions in the last 4/5 days. 

Hottest in Asia on Wednesday, 16th November:
Alibag (Maharashtra,India) : 36.4c. 
Mumbai Colaba, second with a close 35.8c.

Late setting in of sea breeze over Mumai has shot the day temperatures to an "all Asia" record for the city a couple of days ago.

Could get hotter at the weekend for Mumbai, as the anti cyclone shifts, and the winds are likely to become "a warm easterly".  Temperature in Mumbai could touch 36/37c on Sunday/Monday. Nights will show a drop upto 21c.




Isolated Heavy showers seen along S.central coast of Tamilnadu at around 9pm
chennai - sharp showers seen over sea along South of Chennai, 10:04pm
Till 24-Nov.. there are NO sign of Cyclone over Bay !!
@rshivaag >> Yes, Tuticorin can also get a heavy T.shower or two in next 3 days.
Models indicate that next easterly wave is going to be very strong, it'll hit Tamilnadu coast from 23-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/lole
chennai - Temperature dropping now 4:52pm.. 28.9 C... Stiff winds from N-N-E... Cloudy but NO sign of rain yet!
Along Tamilnadu coast widespread showers forecast from tonight till 19-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/loh9
A fresh W.D will start affecting N-W Kashmir from tomorrow and will last till 20-Nov.
By today late evening today the easterlies will start affecting N, central Tamilnadu coast.. Sharp showers forecast.. http://ow.ly/i/logr
3pm, Easterly wave is very near to coast and in striking distance from central Tamilnadu coast .. http://ow.ly/i/lobC
On 15-Nov-2011, lowest minimum temperature of 8.6 C was recorded at Mandla (Madhya Pradesh)

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

chennai - 6:30pm, Easterly wave is nearing N, central Tamilnadu coast.. Heavy cloud activity seen 250km from coast.. http://ow.ly/i/lklR
BBC on leaked UN-IPCC Draft Report: Global Warming on vacation for next 20-30 years! ... http://ow.ly/7tZbF
chennai - wind is from N-N-E... By tomorrow morning it'll be more of E-N-E
chennai - Monsoon like low cloud formations continue 2:08pm and have a stiff breeze from N-N-E
The present W.D over N-W Kashmir will give way to another weak system on 18-Nov and it'll end on evening of 19-Nov.
On 14-Nov, highest maximum temperature of 38.0 C was recorded at Narnaul (Haryana)
Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast on 17-Nov .. will last till 18-Nov ... and another break expected .. http://ow.ly/i/ljgs
A weak easterlies / wet weather front is nearing Central, N. Tamilnadu coast .. Showers may start from early morning of 16-Nov

BBC on leaked UN-IPCC Draft Report: Global Warming on vacation for next 20-30 years!


Remember the images of Copenhagen Climate Summit 2009. Environmental organizations like Greenpeace and WWF; NGOs like Oxfam; ChristianAid; ActionAid; Save the Children etc marching down the streets shouting the catchy slogan “Time is running out” .

Two years later, we now know that time has apparently run out for them! For years they quoted the UN Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports as if it was the Bible. But the new draft report of the IPCC should make them feel like buffoons for all the hysteria they generated in the past.

Says the new draft: "Climate Change Signals Expected to Be Relatively Small over coming 20-30 Years".  The European Commission reports that global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) increased by 45% between 1990 and 2010, and reached an all-time high of 33 billion tons in 2010. Till now we had been told as the carbon emissions grow exponentially, global temperatures grow in tandem. But the IPCC now says that if you looking for such correlation forget it for the next 20-30 years. Global warming has decided to take a vacation!


A strong easterlies expected to enter into S-E Bay on 21-Nov
Showers expected along N,central coast from early hrs of 16-Nov to 18-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/liyT
chennai and N,C Tamilnadu coast ... 2days of wet weather ahead.. Which is expected to start from early hrs of 16-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/liyp
chennai - a deep blue sky CLEAR morning... sign of NEW weather front .. next up is a wet one
A weak circulation over S.central Bay is closing in on N.coastal Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/liwQ

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Surat Hottest in Asia on Sunday! 36.6c.
Mumbai S'Cruz very close 2nd at 36.4c.
BB-10 at 1008mb moves N.

2 feet of snow and 100 mph winds roar across Colorado and America West.
Underwater Volcanic Eruption off Canary Islands...Volcanic Eruption Could Give Birth to New Island.
A "low level circulation" has formed around the Isalnds, and given the status of 97B by NRL, it is just around 1008 mb today (Saturday) evening. Will build up slowly and travel westwards for now.

With no W.D. in sight, dry and cold weather is expected in Northern and NW India. NW winds have started cooling the NW region, and expect nights to get cooler in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and West U.P. Expected lows in next 2 nights, Chandigarh: 12/13c, Amritsar: 10/11c and Delhi 12/13c.

Saturday, November 12, 2011

On 11-Nov, lowest minimum temperature of 12.3 C was recorded at Amritsar (Punjab)
chennai , central and N. coastal Tamilnadu may get one or two showers from midnight of 13-Nov till 16-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/l8eP
5pm, A clear looking India ... from 16-Nov this'll change again .. http://ow.ly/i/l8el
UAC over S-E corner Bay still persists .. from tonight it'll move West and dissipate in another 36hrs .. http://ow.ly/i/l8dY

Friday, November 11, 2011

Latest MJO suggests the a wet phase over S. peninsula from 20-Nov to 20-Dec... VERY wet phase ahead for Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/l2WH
chennai - again records 22.2 C (5:38am).. Min temp will go up from 13-Nov
Isolated showers expected along Central and N. Tamilnadu coast from Tomorrow. Widespread showers along coast may start from 17-Nov again
From tomorrow evening S-E Bay will have Easterlies .. and it'll move West towards Tamilnadu coast.. http://ow.ly/i/l2SW
Today, the strong Anti-cyclone is over N-W Gujarat and moving West.. S-E Bay is having a weak circulation.. http://ow.ly/i/l2RC

Thursday, November 10, 2011

chennai - Today morning low was 21.0 C (5:57am)... Day was warm and with some cloud formations. Most of the day the wind was from N-W
N, central Tamilnadu coast may get some isolated sharp showers from 11/12-Nov as the N-E current will pick up again.
Present heavy activity over S. Bay is due to an UAC over that zone... this's not expected to become strong.. http://ow.ly/i/kYn2
6:30pm, Heavy activity over S. Bay.. and Cyclone "04A" along Oman coast is DEAD ... http://ow.ly/i/kYms
chennai , Tamilnadu. North East monsoon winds will start again over Bay from 12-Nov.. but NO rain expected till 14-Nov http://ow.ly/i/kYlI
On 9-Nov, Lowest minimum temperature of 10.1 C has been recorded at Jalgaon ( Maharashtra) 

Wednesday, November 09, 2011

Cyclone "04A" .. latest satellite IR shot shows signs of weakening along Oman coast .. http://ow.ly/i/kUcd
chennai - Temp. falling slowly NOT like yesterday... another mild and DRY night ahead !
Easterlies are expected to pickup again over S-E Bay from 12-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/kTkr
A strong Anti-cyclone is over S-E Rajasthan and will stay till 12-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/kTk8
North East Monsoon Rainfall toppers (01.10.2011 to 07.11.2011) ... http://ow.ly/7nGLl
Cyclone "04A" -- slowly nearing Oman coast !! and may dissipate over Sea ! ... http://ow.ly/7nGJ3
Depression in the South China Sea is attracting flows away from the Bay of Bengal .. that's why easterlies are weak.. http://ow.ly/i/kTjg
chennai - COLD ... today morning 18.7 C (4:56am) .. Unusual for November

Cyclone "04A" -- slowly nearing Oman coast !! and may dissipate over Sea !

Position :: 15.6 N , 58.5 E
Wind :: 65 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
-------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF MUSCAT, 
OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.  
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE 
IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS).  AS A 
RESULT, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND SHOWS 
SIGNS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING 
EXPOSED.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER 
TRANSVERSE BANDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EVIDENCE OF THE STRONG 
SHEAR.  THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 090530Z PGTW DVORAK 
FIX.  THE SYSTEM IS IN BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  WHILE THE GENERAL 
NORTHWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE 
EAST, NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SINAI PENINSULA 
IS COUNTERING THIS MOTION. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY.  AS THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS 
ACROSS THE AREA, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD 
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 36.  CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE 
IS SPLIT BETWEEN WHICH OF THE ANTICYCLONES WILL STEER THE SYSTEM, 
WITH HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTHERLY TRACKS AND THE OTHER 
HALF WITH WESTERLY TRACKS.  HOWEVER, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES 
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS 
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 11 FEET.


Latest satellite IR shot
--------------------------------------

On 8-Nov-2011, highest maximum temperature was recorded at Surendrnagar (Gujarat) 37.3°C

Tuesday, November 08, 2011

Latest enhanced IR shot of Cyclone "04A" .. nearing Oman coast .. Will it turn S-W as predicted?? ... http://ow.ly/i/kPGQ
6:30pm, WoW!.. clear skies over 95% of India.. while Cyclone "04A" rages towards coastal Oman .. http://ow.ly/i/kP80
chennai - Temp. going down fast .. now 7:17pm its 25.7 C... going to be a DRY and COLD night comparing to chennai standards.
Cyclone "04A" -- nearing South Oman coast !! ... http://ow.ly/7mmxY

Cyclone "04A" -- nearing South Oman coast !!

Position :: 13.9 N and 59 E
Wind :: 65 km/H
Pressure :: 996mb


JTWC warning
------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 13.9N 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFU, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 080530Z PGTW DVORAK
FIX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AFTER
TAU 24 AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD.
CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL AT THE HORN OF AFRICA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFS AS THE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S UNLIKELY INTRUSION INTO THE RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 11 FEET.

JTWC projected path
--------------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot
-----------------------------------


IMD GFS models suggest that it'll move towards N-N-W and touch Oman coast and then eventually die in that same zone


Cold wave conditions would prevail over parts of Rayalaseema (Andhra) during next two nights.
On 7-Nov.. Kollam (Kerala) and Nagercoil (Kanyakumari dt) recorded very heavy rainfall of 23 and 13 cm.
A strong W.D is expected to hit N-W Kashmir from 9-Nov ... http://ow.ly/i/kOir
Easterlies over Bay is Weak or Non-existent Today.. and it's expected to pick up after 12/13-Nov. Till then very less rain for Tamilnadu
North Tamilnadu had a DRY day yesterday, but S, central and West. Tamilnadu received showers yesterday as well
chennai - Temp. now 1:28pm is 32.5 C
chennai - Morning it was dry and mild.. 22.8 C (6:08am)... DAY will be VERY DRY and feels like 35 deg C

Monday, November 07, 2011

NEM Rainfall toppers (01.10.2011 to 07.11.2011)

Rainfall in mm (Minimum 500 mm)

  1. Coonoor (Tamil Nadu) - 784
  2. Cuddalore (Tamil Nadu) - 693
  3. Mandapam (Tamil Nadu) - 654
  4. Pillur (Tamil Nadu) - 651
  5. Papanasam Dam (Tamil Nadu) - 649
  6. Ramanathapuram (Tamil Nadu) - 613
  7. Parangipettai (Tamil Nadu) - 571
  8. Kavali (Andhra Pradesh) - 547
  9. Tondi (Tamil Nadu) - 543
  10. Nellore (Andhra Pradesh) - 532
Chennai - at last city is having a bright day

Sunday, November 06, 2011

ENVISAT data shows global sea level declining:



As the graph (plotted from ENVISAT data) illustrates, global sea level have been declining from the end of 2007.  Another climate alarmist claim bite the dust.

ENVISAT, is the largest and most sophisticated Earth Observation spacecraft ever built. It carries ten sophisticated optical and radar instruments to provide continuous observation and monitoring of the Earth's land, atmosphere, oceans and ice caps.

Read More: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2011/11/envisat-data-shows-sea-level-declining.html
Sunday Blog:
AS-3 has moved due West in the last 6 hrs...from previous location of 10.8N / 67.5E to currently (12 noon IST Sunday) 10.7N / 65 E.....due West.

It seems this change of track from the expected NW track is due to the uppe rair 200 mb jet streams. These jet stream upper winds have markedly become due West below 15N (not very normal for Nov.) in the last 12 hrs. Even the 500 mb winds are supportive, and are flowing West below the 15N line. Surely influencing the movement of the system.Pressure is at 1004 mb with 20-25 knts winds.
 
System could re-curve the track to NW if it is able to cross the 12/13N line. Otherwise, would maintain a Westerly track. 

Resultantly seeing good cooling in the Central India region (M.P./Mah/Gujarat/N.I.Karnataka), and NW plains from early next week. 
More on this in a later blog.