Reports of "Rain, hail and wind" from Central and East Punjab, Ludhiana.
Friday, February 28, 2014
Reports of "Rain, hail and wind" from Central and East Punjab, Ludhiana.
Today morning, Airport = 21.2 C.
Till 8:30am today, S,S-E Tamilnadu coast got moderate rain.. Pamban = 12.6 mm, Tuticorin = 21.3 mm.
Nanguneri = 1 CM.
During next 3 days... Warm mornings ahead for most of Tamilnadu except for N,N-W zones, S,S-central Andhra and for S,central Karnataka.
During next 2 days, showers expected for N,N-W,N-central and most W-ghats of Tamilnadu.
S,S-central and W-ghats of Kerala to get T showers during next 3 days.
S tip of Tamilnadu (Kanyakumari dist) is also expected to get T showers during today and next 2 days !
Today, the upper-level W.D circulation is seen over N-central Pakistan ... http://ow.ly/i/4K6cH
This upper-level W.D circulation is expected to move East and vanish in 36hrs, meanwhile another circulation will move in on 2-Mar.
Today, the mid-level trough of W.D can be seen dipping South upto 17N, all along W India ... http://ow.ly/i/4K6rP
This mid-level trough is expected to drift East and fizzle out over East or E-central India around evening of 1-Mar.
The low-level circulation embedded in W.D trough is seen over central,E-central Rajasthan today... http://ow.ly/i/4K6z8
During next 24hrs, the low-level circulation is expected to vanish along #Delhi, W Uttarpradesh.
During next 36hrs, due to W.D trough, scattered moderate rain for Uttarpradesh, Bihar, N Chatisgarh, Jharkhand and N,central,W Bengal
Showers to continue for S Kashmir, Himachal, Uttarakhand and some zones of Haryana as well during next 36hrs.
Due to this eastward movement of W.D... showers expected for Sikkim and to N,central zone of N-E states.
And for N Bangladesh as well.
In next 36hrs, due to trough, moderate rain also for N-E,E Maharastra, N,central Andhra and even into N,N-W Tamilnadu.
RT @GanpatTeli1: It's raining heavily in #Delhi
@weatherofindia http://t.co/KUYBrP33bI (2:21pm)
RT @binduw1: Rain drenched #Delhi = jammed Delhi (2:24pm)
RT @naturesdoodle: Delhi's mood right now. #Rain #clouds #grey http://t.co/06hZgkiSoe (2:16pm)
Wednesday, February 26, 2014
Monday, February 24, 2014
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 8.00 pm; Slight drizzle at some places, First rain drop of the season !!!
In North India, today morning, Hissar = 6 C, #Delhi = 9 C, Lucknow = 8 C.
Most stations recorded normal temperatures !
A mid-level circulation seen over N,N-W Arabian sea... this is rushing moisture into W,W-central,central India ... http://ow.ly/i/4GYgE
This Arabian sea circulation is expected to drift E-N-E into S Pakistan, and expected to drop a trough dipping to 17N http://ow.ly/i/4GYlx
More moisture is expected to push into W-central,central, N-Peninsula and drift East on 25,26-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/4GYo6
Around evening of 25-Feb, an upper level W.D trough is expected to reach or affect W,N-W Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/i/4GYy7
W.D induced low-level circulation is also expected to pop over S Rajasthan and drift E-N-E on Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/4GYDk
#Chennai - 1:40pm, Drizzles continue at some zones over city, suburbs.
Present temp. = 27.9 C.
Rainfall after 9am = 0.6 mm.
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 9.40am, Clear skies, Bright Sunshine...mild breeze...appears Early Summer is here to stay !!!!
12:30pm, "Easterlies affecting coast, interior Tamilnadu and S Andhra" ... http://ow.ly/i/4GXXq
This easterlies is expected to bring more rain for S,S-E,central coast and interior Tamilnadu during next 24hrs !
Chennai - 7:21am, drizzling now over Polichalur zone. Due to easterlies !
"Monsoon kind of morning"
Saturday, February 22, 2014
RT @rajugana: Bangalore 11.30am - Clear skies, Sunny & warm... Skyline picture @ Khaikondarahalli lake http://t.co/gMpeQJPenb
RT @edwinotes: At Vasundhara Sarovar Resort in #Kerala #Aleppey. Lovely lovely rain at night to top things off! :) @KeralaTourism (1:33am)
RT @_JayanK: A good summer rain last night. Cool morning. Feeling great. #Palakkad #Kerala (9:11am)
Due to this, SHowers expected to pop over W,S-W,central Madhyapradesh from Monday ... http://ow.ly/i/4G6ve
Next, mid-level trough is also expected to deepen and drift East across central India to E India from Tuesday to Friday !!More rain ahead !
Today morning, mid-level W.D trough is seen South upto 21N and most of moisture has pushed to E-central,central India http://ow.ly/i/4G6au
Today, the low level circulation embedded in mid-level W.D trough is seen over N-central India along #Delhi ... http://ow.ly/i/4G6dh
During next 24 hrs, the W.D trough is expected to drift East and vanish over E,E-central India.
... But moisture is expected to persist over E,E-central India till Sunday evening.
During next 24hrs, scattered moderate rain to persist over E,S-E Madhyapradesh, E,E-central India ... http://ow.ly/i/4G6jT
Today morning, most of N,N-W,N-central India experienced an above normal temperature due to presence of W.D.
Amristar = 5 C
Tamilnadu rain till 8:30am of Friday, Kanyakumari dist. got the most...
Eraniel 4, Thuckalay 2 and Kuzhithurai 1 CM.
S Kerala also registered good rainfall till 8:30am of Friday,
Thiruvananthapuram Airport 4, Kanjirappally (Kottayam district) 2 CM.
In 24hrs, More scattered rain expected for S, W-ghats of Kerala.
An easterly wave is expected to affect S,S-E,central Tamilnadu coast and into interiors on Sunday .. http://ow.ly/i/4G5xh
Scattered moderate / Heavy rain expected over S-E,S,central Tamilnadu on Sunday,Monday and even on Tuesday ... http://ow.ly/i/4G5zh
Tomorrow as well a COLD morning expected for N,N-W,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S,central,N-E Andhra and S Karnataka.
From Sunday night, due to easterlies, Warm nights expected over most of Tamilnadu (except N,N-W).
Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Today, Kanpur (Uttar Pradesh) records 3 C.
This W.D trough is expected to reach N-W India by tomorrow evening !
The W.D trough is expected to be at its peak on night of 20-Feb and into 21-Feb along N,N-W,N-central,central India.. http://ow.ly/i/4E0Jy
W.D trough is expected to dip south upto 18N and moisture expected to push into S-W coast, W,central Maharastra on evening of 20-Feb.
Moisture push is expected over W-central,central,N-central India and over N,central Peninsula from evening, 20-Feb to 22-Feb.
W.D trough is expected to travel East, the moisture is expected to drift most of N,N-central,central India to E,E-central on 21,22,23-Feb
From tonight till 21-Feb, Snow / rain expected over Kashmir.
On 21-Feb, moderate scattered rain for Punjab, Haryana, N,central,N-E Madhyapradesh and into W,central Uttarpradesh. http://ow.ly/i/4E0Xz
@shanpati >> Cloudy with moderate,light rain expected for W,central,S-W,N Maharastra on 21,22-Feb.
Cloudy spells also for Mumbai !
@The3rd_Reich @NeenaRai >> #Delhi - 21-Feb to 24-Feb, city will be CLOUDY with possibility of rain on 22,23-Feb.
COLD day expected as well !
City and suburbs witnessed some drizzles during early hours.. IWM Polichalur = 0.6mm
Tamilnadu - Rainfall till 8:30am today, Coonoor and Eraniel records 3 cm.
Rainfall concentrated over E.Nilgiris and S-W Kanyakumari dist.
Some rainfall also witnessed over S Kerala as well during past 24hrs.
Thiruvananthapuram Airport = 1 cm
More rain ahead for N-W,W,S-W, W-ghats of Tamilnadu during next 2 days !
From tomorrow till 22-Feb, widespread moderate / heavy rain forecast for Kerala due to Wind Discontinuity ... http://ow.ly/i/4DZUC
Today, the low level circulation is seen over Arabian sea just N,N-W of Lakshadweep ... http://ow.ly/i/4E02r
Expected to drift W-N-W.
Tuesday, February 18, 2014
Tamilnadu - Rainfall Till today, 8:30am... Coonoor records 5 cm, Ketti = 4 cm, Kundha Bridge = 3 cm (all Nilgiris district).
During next 2 or 3 days, Showers to persist along N-W,W,S-W zones, W-ghats of Tamilnadu.
And some widespread, moderate rain expected for Kerala starting from today till 21-Feb.... http://ow.ly/i/4Dgwc
COLD mornings expected for N,N-E Tamilnadu, #Chennai, S,central,N-E Andhra, S Karnataka and ALL along Konkan from morning, 19-Feb to 22-Feb
Monday, February 17, 2014
Today morning, Amristar records a low temp of 3.9 C
Night temperature is expected to be below normal for most of N,N-W,N-central India during next 2 nights !
Some showers spilled into N,central,S-central Peninsula as well.
Latest analysis suggest that the mid,low-level trough has almost drifted away from India... http://ow.ly/i/4CExz
5:30pm, Medium level cloud cover still persists over N-E Tamilnadu and S Andhra... rest of India mostly had a dry day http://ow.ly/i/4CECQ
During next 2 days, the moisture and rain is expected to persist over N,N-W,W Tamilnadu and into most parts of Kerala.
For North India, another W.D trough is expected to reach N,N-W India on Wednesday ... http://ow.ly/i/4CEMZ
On 21-Feb (Friday), Saturday.. most of N,N-central,central,E-central India can expect more rain, as the W.D system moves East.
#Chennai - 12:51pm, is cloudy with some mild drizzles around.
City too is affected by the mid-level trough that swept across #India.
#Chennai - till 8:30am today, IWM Polichalur station recorded 2.1 mm of rainfall !
#Kolkata - 10:22am, After a rainy day now it's sunny.
Till 8:30am, Alipur = 24.5 mm.
Chennai - 4:39 am, drizzling was observed over Polichalur zone!
Chennai - 4:39am, drizzling now ! Rain after a long time.
Sunday, February 16, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Due to a UAC ( Upper Air Circulation) that would soon become a low pressure , there would be wide spread rains in Bihar , Westbengal and rest of North east from 14th feb 2014 to 16th feb 2014 .
Thursday, February 13, 2014
Latest analysis show that Mid level trough along 67E and dipping south upto 15N has taken shape... http://ow.ly/i/4AsKJ
This mid level trough is embedded with a low level (850hpa) circulation along S,S-W Gujarat ... http://ow.ly/i/4AsRS
7:30pm, Due to this trough, circulation... most of N,N-W,central,W,E-central India has become CLOUDY ... http://ow.ly/i/4AsYs
By tomorrow evening, the low level circulation is expected to be over #Delhi, W Uttarpradesh and along Uttarakhand.. http://ow.ly/i/4At4C
And on 15,16-Feb, the circulation is expected to move E-S-E into E-central,East India ... http://ow.ly/i/4At8q
In 24,36hrs... Scattered and Heavy / moderate rain expected over N,N-central,central, E-central, East India ... http://ow.ly/i/4Ate3
On Saturday, Sunday... scattered moderate rain expected to cover East, N-E India as well !
By Monday evening, this present system will clear out from Indian territory !!
RT @rajugana: @weatherofindia Bangalore 6.15pm, Formation of Clouds in the eve.. first in this season. a picpic.twitter.com/WRaLzOvcdu
Malout - 7:30pm, "It's cloudy here"
#COLD wave continues over N,N-W,N-central India ..
#Delhi = 6 C, Hissar = 3 C, Jammu = 5 C, Lucknow = 3 C.
Today morning LOW temperature was recorded at, Muzaffarnagar (Uttar Pradesh) = 1.9 C and Narnaul (Haryana) = 2.6 C
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
#Chennai - Today morning temperature, IWM Polichalur station = 20.6 C and Nungambakkam = 21.6 C
#Chennai ' s #COLD nights during last few days may be due to winds from High pressure in China ... http://ow.ly/tvMFH
The day temperature over S Peninsula is expected to be Normal during next 3 days !
And night temp is expected to rise by 1 or 2 deg C.
Cloudy days expected over Karnataka, N,central Andhra and even into N,N-E Tamilnadu from Thursday !
8:30pm, Due to moisture presence in E,E-central India, today cloudy with moderate rain seen over N-central,N-E Odisha http://ow.ly/i/4z0k7
8:30pm, Isolated light showers also seen over S,S-W Bengal .... http://ow.ly/i/4z0k7
By tomorrow evening, a mid level trough is expected along 65E and dipping south upto 17N or even upto 14N... http://ow.ly/i/4z0tD
Upcoming mid-level trough is expected to have a circulation embedded at low levels, initially over N-E Arabian sea. http://ow.ly/i/4z0Ad
This mid-level trough and low level circulation will push moisture into central,W-central India and into N,central Peninsula from 13-Feb
On 13-Feb, the N-E Arabian sea circulation will push N-E towards #Delhi !!
From Friday evening, its expected to drift East or E-S-E
The upcoming mid-level trough is expected to push in moisture into N Kerala, upto S Karnataka and into N Tamilnadu as well !
From night of 12-Feb and into 13-Feb, scattered moderate rain expected over central,N-central,N, E-central India .. http://ow.ly/i/4z11s
On 13,14-Feb, heavy scattered rain expected over N,N-central,E,E-central India.
On 13,14-Feb, light rain also expected along S-W coast of India.
On 14-Feb, Showers expected over E,N-E Maharastra, Chatisgarh and even into N,N-E Andhra.
More snow, rain expected for Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand from Thursday to Saturday !!
On Saturday, rain may pop into N-E,central,S Andhra and even into N,N-E Tamilnadu.
Scattered moderate, heavy rain expected for East, N-E India from Saturday, 15-Feb.
Most stations has recorded below normal Day and Night temperatures !
#Delhi - records a day temp of 20 C (3 C below normal) and a night temperature of 6 C, which is 6 C below normal !
Some other low night temperatures are ... Hissar = 3 C, Ludhiana = 4 C and Jodhpur = 7 C
Today morning, Narnaul (Haryana) records a low temperature of 2.6 C.
COLD wave over N,N-W,N-central India to persist till Friday, 14-Feb.
|11 Feb 2014 / 0600 Z Chart|
 Further the apparent movement of Sun towards NORTH is also making impact on temperatures in lower latitude and discontinuity in winds field is is also evident.
 However the increase in cold in North & Central India is due to N/NW wind coming after the passage of WD
Yesterday my friend working in TN Forest contacted me to part with solution to chase 40 odd elephants which invaded SANAMAVU village near Hosur. I have advised to keep powerful pointer GREEN LASER for his safety to browse the bushes from distant and to thwart elephants from advancing into civilian land.
Monday, February 10, 2014
Today morning, #Delhi recorded 5 C which is 5 C below normal.
Some other COLD stations in N India ... Ambala = 6 C, Hissar, Ludhiana = 4 C, Jaipur = 7 C and Lucknow = 5 C.
Sunday, February 09, 2014
As on Sunday, a WD (not numbered) situated in the upper air over Northern Pakistan and adjoining Afghanistan moves away N/NE.
The winds currently are sweeping from N/NW along the entire plains of Northern India and Pakistan, and also along the sub Himalayan plains, Central India and Western India.
Monday: Cold conditions and below normal temperatures in Northern Pakistan, Central Sindh and Northern/Western and Central India next 2 nights. Lowest in next 2 nights in Punjab plains could reach 1/2c.
Tuesday, we could possibly see a Line of Wind Discontinuity (LWD) running East-West roughly from the W.Bengal/Odisha border on the East Coast of India westwards towards Chattisgarh.
Winds South of the LWD would be SW and NE North of the trough. This may possibly bring light to moderate showers to Northern Odisha (Including Sambhalpur) and adjoining Coastal Bengal.
Kolkata will be cloudy with light rains in some areas of city or vicinity.
Cloudy in Northern Pakistan and Western Nepal.
Wednesday, the trough would possibly stretch upto West MP, with strong Easterlies blowing along the line across Central India. Southern parts of the LWD will see South winds (Nagpur), and North winds in UP and Bihar..Kolkata could cloudy skies and light rains in some parts.
Chances of Westerly winds over Mumbai from Wednesday, would bring in moisture and show a gradual rise in temperatures...hitherto pleasant and around 15c/16c (Scruz) till Tuesday of the week.
Delhi NCR also remains below normal next 2 nights, with lows reaching 6/7c.
Chennai, now pleasant and comfortable as per its normal, was 17.8c on Sunday morning. Would expect the temperatures to be around 18/19c till Tuesday , with a rise from Wednesday.
Cloudy weather in North Pakistan.Clearing after Wednesday.
Islamabad will be partly cloudy till Tuesday with lows around 3/4c next 2 nights.
Karachi clear, with a range between 26c and 11/12c.
Thursday: There is a chance that the trough may have an embedded low , somewhere over Central India by Thursday. Winds would be anti clockwise around the low.The winds at the 500 hp level are expected to pick up speed, and aided by the jet streams may reach around 45-50 knts in the W/SW direction across the Indian region. This would mean ideal conditions at 18500 feet for clouds to appear.
Clouding could cover the region from Konkan across North Mah into Central India towards the low.
Clouds appearing with light rains in Nagpur on Thursday.
Clouds would also show up in Mumbai on Thursday night or Friday.
Low ( being in the trough), can strengthen from Friday, and move N/Ne from central India location to N and NE India. Precipitation for Kathmandu from this system....brief update on Tuesday night on developments.
from Vagaries: www.vagaries.in
Friday, February 07, 2014
Rainfall till 8:30am today... Due to W.D.
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: Srinagar Airport 11, Kathua 6, Banihal 5 and Batote and Kupwara 4 each, Quazigund, Bhaderwah, Pahalgam, Kukarnag and Gulmarg 2 each, Udhampur 1 CM
HIMACHAL PRADESH: Bhunter 5, Dhramsala and Manali 4 each and Sundernagar, Una and Kangra 3 each and Shimla and Kalpa 1 CM
EAST RAJASTHAN: Mahwa and Deeg 1 CM
PUNJAB: Pathankot, Adampur and Patiala 1 CM.
Due to W.D ... "Srinagar cut off as fresh snowfall blocks highway ... " ... http://ow.ly/tnW1U
6:30pm, Cloudy with Rain/snow continue over Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/4wCky
In next 18hrs, the present W.D will clear from N India.
Some moisture is expected to be over E,E-central India till Sunday evening
During next 20hrs, scattered rain/snow expected over Kashmir, Himachal.
Next mid level trough along W,N-W India is expected on 10/11-Feb... "Moisture expected to be pushed into W-central,central,N-Central India
#Chennai - Another COLD morning, IWM Polichalur station records 18.7 °C at 6:13am, Nungambakkam = 19.2 C.
#Chennai - Today, day temperature was #HOT, Airport = 32.3 C
S peninsula minimum temperature... #Bangalore = 15 C, Chamarajanagar = 11 C, Hassan = 12 C, Hyderabad = 18 C
#COLD for South Peninsula, especially for N,N-E,N-W,N-central Tamilnadu, S Karnataka and N-E Andhra to continue during next 2 nights,morning
Day temperature along Karnataka coast, N Kerala of India is expected to be around 33 to 36 C for next 3 days.
On the whole, the day temperature over most of S,S-central Peninsula is expected to be above normal during next 3 days.
Thursday, February 06, 2014
For S,S-central Peninsula.. the DAY temperature is expected to be on higher side, meanwhile the min temp is expected to DIP more. !
COLD night temp. over N,N-central, N-W Tamilnadu, S Andhra and S Karnataka is expected to continue for next 3 days. May dip even more by 1 C
Today, Najibabad (West Uttar Pradesh) records a low temperature of 5.5 C
6:30pm, Heavy snow/rain seen over most of Kashmir and into Himachal ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRlo
6:30pm, cloudy over Punjab, N,N-W,N-E Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttarakhand, #Delhi and W Uttarpradesh ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRlo
Mid level W.D trough and circulation is now over N,central Pakistan and slowly pushing towards India ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRs5
During next 24 to 36hrs, the W.D system is expected to push across N,N-W India.
From night of 7-Feb, the W.D moisture is expected to drift into E,E-central India ... cloudy weather with some moderate rain expected!
The W.D trough is expected to push moisture into E,E-central India on 8-Feb and persist till 9-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/4vRBi
Scattered rain expected over Punjab, N,N-E Rajasthan, Haryana, #Delhi and into W Uttarpradesh during next 36hrs.
Snow is expected to be over most of Kashmir till Sunday !
In 24hrs, Heavy rain or snow predicted for Kashmir ... http://ow.ly/tlmrE
#COLD Kashmir, Kargil freezes at -16.4 C ... http://ow.ly/tlmAC
Another mid level trough North-South along 70E and dipping south upto 25N is expected on 10/11-Feb ... http://ow.ly/i/4vROu
Wednesday, February 05, 2014
Fresh snowfall forces closure of Srinagar-Jammu national highway... http://ow.ly/tiNlb
The mid level trough, circulation of W.D is expected to come close to N,N-W India in next 24hrs... http://ow.ly/i/4v8vi
On 6-Feb, scattered rain expected over N,N-W Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Uttarakhand and into W,N-W Uttarpradesh.. http://ow.ly/i/4v8An
On 6,7-Feb, HEAVY snow expected over most of Kashmir and into upper reaches of Himachal and Uttarakhand... http://ow.ly/i/4v8An
#Delhi - can expect a CLOUDY day on 6,7-Feb, with a possibility of #rain on 6th night and on 7-Feb.
Minimum temperatures across N,N-W,N-central India is expected to DIP again from Friday !
At present its above normal.
Some other low temperatures recorded today over N Tamilnadu are... Dharmapuri = 15.5 C, Vellore = 16.4 C, Salem = 17.4 C
On 4-Feb, Day temperatures across Tamilnadu has increased... Salem = 34.8 C, Karur = 34.2 C and Palayamkottai = 34.1 C
#Bangalore = Day temperature on 4-Feb was 32 C (#Hot and +3 C above normal) and today morning it was 16 C.
S-W coast of India continues to have #HOT days ... Karwar = 36 C, Mumbai = 31.2 C, Goa = 34.4 C
There's NO dip expected in Day temperature over most of S,central Peninsula during next 6 days !
Tuesday, February 04, 2014
#Chennai - Today as well another DRY, Hazy and Warm day !
More WARM days and 21 C morning ahead till 8-Feb.
#Chennai - A final phase of day (28/29 C) and night (18/19 C) temperature DIP expected after 8-Feb !
For Tamilnadu, NO easterlies or moisture push from S,S-W,S-E Bay expected during next 6 days !
Mercury continues to rise in north India; rainfall, snow in J&K ... http://ow.ly/tg9Me
Rainfall in North India till 8:30am today, due to present W.D system..
JAMMU AND KASHMIR: Kupwara 4, Banihal, Batote and Gulmarg 3 each, Qazigund, Katra and Bhaderwah 2 cm
HIMACHAL PRADESH: Manali 3 cm.
Today's low temperature over North India was recorded at Amristar = 7 C.
Surprisingly, Phulbani (Odisha) records a low temp of 5.8 C as well
The present W.D affecting North India has almost cleared out ... another is expected to reach N,N-W India tonight.. http://ow.ly/i/4umfc
Next, W.D is expected to be a strong system and expected to last till 7-Jan ... http://ow.ly/i/4umiF
From tonight till 7-Feb, HEAVY and widespread rain expected for Kashmir, Himachal, N Punjab and Uttarakhand ... http://ow.ly/i/4unPI
During next 3 days, Heavy snowfall also expected over Kashmir and upper reaches of Himachal as well.
From 5-Feb to 7-Feb, scattered rain expected over Punjab, Haryana, W,N-W Uttarpradesh and over N,N-W,N-E Rajasthan.
#Delhi - is expected to be Cloudy from tomorrow with showers expected on 6,7-Feb.
Sunday, February 02, 2014
The name El Niño is believed to have been coined in the 19th century after Peruvian fisherman observed it around Christmas – the word is Spanish for "boy", in reference to the infant Jesus Christ. La Niña, the word for "girl", was devised later to label the reverse phenomenon.Both are significant markers of global climate fluctuations.
In Normal Scenario, In the vast Pacific Ocean, the water goes West from the Peru Coastline. So does the air. Why? Because the surface of the ocean is joined to the bottom of the air. Now the water is an easterly current going to the west, and so is the air, and this produces easterly winds. Easterly winds bring moisture from the sea and by the time they arrive on the Australian coast they are rain-laden.
The combi-nation of cooler easterlies and lower pressure brings rain. This is the NORMAL situation.
But it doesn't last. The movement of water to the left eventually makes the sea level higher on the left, just as a very slow-moving ripple wave would in a bath. When it gets to a critical height difference, about 62cms, it wants to go the other way. Slowly the water starts flowing to the RIGHT. Higher pressure now is on the LEFT, above Australia. And higher pressure flows towards lower pressure.The water is joined to the air and produces westerlies. The warmer water arrives at Peru and is called El Niño.
During an El Niño event, the easterly trade winds converging across the equatorial Pacific weaken. This in turn slows the ocean current that draws surface water away from the western coast of South America and reduces the upwelling of cold, nutrient–rich water from the deeper ocean, flattening out the thermocline and allowing warm surface water to buld in the eastern part of the basin.
El Niño occurs every two to seven years, when the trade winds that circulate surface water in the tropical Pacific start to weaken. The result is a major shift in rainfall, bringing floods and mudslides to usually arid countries in western South America and drought in the western Pacific, as well as a change in nutrient-rich ocean currents that lure fish and make them migrate.
The last El Niño lasted from June 2009 to May 2010.
An enhancement of the "normal situation" is La Nina. Same winds and flow, but stronger. Averaging about 2-3 years after the normal occurance.
El Niño is often followed by a reverse swing with La Niña, characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. In fact, very simply put, when the normal situation reaches its maximum point it is called La Niña.
The last La Nina ended in April 2012.
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation, also known as ENSO is a periodic fluctuation in sea surface temperature (El Niño) and the air pressure of the overlying atmosphere (Southern Oscillation) across the equatorial Pacific Ocean.
The Southern Oscillation compares variation in sea level barometric pressure between observation stations at Darwin, Australia and Tahiti. It is quantified in the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), which is a standardized difference between the two barometric pressures. Normally, lower pressure over Darwin and higher pressure over Tahiti encourages a circulation of air from east to west, drawing warm surface water westward and bringing precipitation to Australia and the western Pacific. When the pressure difference weakens, which is strongly coincidental with El Niño conditions,
Although the exact initiating causes of an ENSO warm or cool event are not fully understood, the two components of ENSO – sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure are strongly related.
The strengthening and weakening of the trade winds is a function of changes in the pressure gradient of the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific. Ironically, the warming of the sea surface works to decrease the atmospheric pressure above it by transferring more heat to the atmosphere and making it more buoyant. So, in summary, the pressure gradient affects the sea surface temperatures, and the sea surface temperatures affect the pressure gradient.
Southern Oscillation Index:
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has risen over the past two weeks, though this is thought to be largely due to short term local weather variations rather than larger scale climate shifts. The latest approximate 30-day SOI value to 26 January is +10.0.
Sustained positive values of the SOI above +8 may indicate a La Niña event, while sustained negative values below -8 may indicate an El Niño event. Values of between about +8 and -8 generally indicate neutral conditions.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains in a neutral state. The latest NINO3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly is -0.3 °C. The 30-day Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) value to 26 January is +10.0.
Negative OLR anomalies were observed over Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and the
equatorial western Pacific. Positive OLR anomalies were evident over the central equatorial Pacific.
Low-level (850-hPa) winds were near average across the equatorial Pacific.
ENSO-neutral conditions continue.*
• Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are near average across much of the
Pacific Ocean, with regions of below average SST in the east-central Pacific.
What is the Positional Outlook this year ? Specially for the South West Monsoon -2014 ? WMO cautions forecasters-" "Some caution should be exercised when using long-range outlooks made at this time for the middle of the year and beyond," it said
Some International Outlooks:
--"Current model outlooks further suggest an enhanced possibility of the development of a weak El Niño around the middle of 2014," the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said.
-- For the first few months of this year, meanwhile, the WMO said there was a slight possibility of a weak and brief appearance of the El Niño's mirror image La Nina, which cools the ocean.
-- But overall, there is a strong likelihood that conditions in the Pacific will remain neutral, with neither an El Niño or La Nina observed.
-- Climate models suggest an ENSO-neutral state to persist until at least the end of March, with some warming of the tropical Pacific likely.
-- Some, but not all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by early Summer.
-- The picture for the remainder of the year remains hazy, the WMO underlined.
-- Vagaries estimates a neutral State till April/May. Now, we are concerned with the SWM position, and remember, if you go through the MW series (archives), then, ENSO or El-Nino is one of the important parametres for the South West Monsoon.
Vagaries estimates a slight tendency to warm of the SST off the Peru Coast and NinO 3.4 to warm up after June/July. ENSO can be on the threshold of El-Nino in June /July, and may show El-Nino tendency after July/August.
Now, we hear from the famous Global Warming quarters...Climate change will cause severe Ninos and Ninas...Wow !..Meteorologists, who understand the science of climate, will vouch for the fact that : The two climate patterns are are not caused by climate change, but cause climate changes !
That's all there is to it. It has nothing to do with global warming, climate change, what make of lightbulbs we should be using. Nor does El Niño slow or speed up global warming, anymore than a wave on the ocean can control a current beneath. It is merely one of the giant cycles that rule the planet.
Excerpts from:Ken Ring (Predict Weather.com)
ncdc NASA and NOAA. and from Bur of Met Aust, www.geocurrents.infoand ,http://instructional1.calstatela.edu/
Saturday, February 01, 2014
11:30am, Getting cloudy over Kashmir due to approaching W.D system ... http://ow.ly/i/4sHqN
Due to W.D, moderate / heavy rain or snow expected for Kashmir, Himachal from tonight to 5-Feb... http://ow.ly/i/4sHuJ
On 2,3-Feb - scattered moderate to heavy rain expected over Punjab, N,N-W Rajasthan, Haryana, Himachal, Uttarakhand http://ow.ly/i/4sHuJ
For #Delhi - weather is expected to be cloudy from tomorrow with a chance of rain on 3,4-Feb.
Today's W.D system may be followed immediately by another system... expected to be WET days ahead for N,N-W,N-central India till 5/6-Feb !!