Sunday, November 30, 2008

Cyclones - Northern Bay during December

This is the piece of Information i got from the IMD website about a cyclone that crossed West Bengal coast. But this was the only Cyclone to cross the West Bengal Coast in December since 1971.

December 4-11. 1981

Crossed West Bengal Coast near Sagar Island around 1300 UTC on December 10 and weakened into a depression on 11th morning over Bangladesh and into a low the same evening over Assam and Meghalaya.200 people died in 24 Parganas district of West Bengal One Million people affect in the districts of 24 Parganas.

Contributed by one of our reader:Chandramouli

After "Nisha" - what next??

Chennai, today received some drizzles overnite.
Clear, bright and sunny morning!
Now (1:07 PM) some patches of low cloud formation can be seen, not threatening to rain.
The moisture left behind by "Nisha" and favorable wind direction (east-north-east), might trigger some thundershowers for Interior Tamilnadu.
But chennai will remain mostly clear & sunny, a possibility of some drizzles OR sharp showers late evening.
Here is the latest satellite pic...

And here is the latest numeric model for the NEXT cyclone (if any..?!)
Both the models suggest there is a Depression formation around 4-Dec-08.

"After Nisha" - from Jim's blog,

The storm is over and what lingers behind is tropical moisture that has wafted over most of peninsular India giving rise to scattered thunderstorms as of Saturday. The old low-level core of Nisha has settled as a much-weakened whirl over the eastern Arabian Sea.
The next few days of weather will lack the drama of the last week and its flooding, cyclonic rains and winds. But there will be an unusual bent to it inasmuch as tropical moisture will run unusually far northward over the western Subcontinent. The hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms that have already arisen over Maharashtra will reach Gujarat and even southern Sindh. I would not rule out a shower at Karachi sometime within the next three to four days.
Well, there is already talk of the next depression or cyclone over the Bay of Bengal on or after the middle of next week. My take is "I do not know yet". I will wait to see consistency in numerical model runs; barring this, I will decline to forecast a Bay cyclone. Even without a well-marked tropical low, the setting does seem to favor new outbreaks of rain, but nothing like the one now ended.
--The rain unleashed by the big, lumbering weather system the became Tropical Cyclone Nisha has triggered tragic flooding. The statistics themselves were staggering. The storm's four-day outburst of rain poured 57.9 cm/22.8 inches upon Chennai-Minambakkam. And rains ahead of Nisha swelled the amount to 59.6 cm/26.6 inches, or more than two fold the normal monthly rainfall--all of this within about one week. And, by my reckoning, rainfall at Cuddalore since last Friday has reached 33 inches (about 84 cm), give or take.