RT @ela_m: @weatherofindia it rained for few mins I am in valasaravakkam,chennai (10:10pm)

RT @uniqgiri: I'll be very happy if the rain comes instead of the scary thunders (chennai) (9:48pm)

@zenrainman >> 5:30pm, NOGAPS model, predicted landfall of cyclone / depression on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5bUj

Chennai - A super thunder storm moving in from N-N-E ... now 9:46pm

8pm, satellite shot of S-E. Bay .. Depression ... cyclone jal in making ... http://ow.ly/i/5bTw

IMD :: Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal : Pre-cyclone Watch, 7:30pm IST

The depression over southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of 4th November 2010 near lat. 8.5⁰N and long. 90.0⁰E about about 950 km east of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1200 km east-southeast of Chennai and 1300 km southeast of Visakhapatanam. It would intensify gradually into a cyclonic storm and move west-northwestwards and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Chennai and Ongole by 7^th November 2010 evening/night.

          Under its influence, rain/thundershower would occur at most places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls over north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from morning of 6^th November 2010. The intensity would increase with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places over the above regions from morning of 7^th November 2010.

          Squally winds speed reaching 55-65 kmph gusting to 75 kmph would commence along and off North Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast from morning of 6^th November 2010. Sea conditions will be rough to very rough along and off these coasts from the same time. Fishermen out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

          Squally winds speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph would also occur along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along and off Andaman and Nicobar islands during next 12 hours.

RT @alertnet: Indonesia's Mount Merapi erupts again, killing six http://ow.ly/34oUY

Cyclone jal :: Latest Upper air current analysis, 80% pointing towards N. Tamilnadu & S. Andhra coast .. http://ow.ly/i/5bKj

Update on S-E Bay Depression... Nearing Cyclone status ... http://ow.ly/34o1H

Update on S-E Bay Depression... Nearing Cyclone status

Position :: 8.8N , 90.3E
Wind :: 55 kmph
Pressure :: 1000mb


Satellite shot, 7pm IST
--------------------------------

JTWC tracking
-------------------------

JTWC warning
----------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
155 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.6N 90.9E TO 9.6N 86.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
041200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.8N
90.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 
92.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.8N 90.3E, APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STALLED 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST DAY. CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO YIELD 
A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION GREATER THAN 2.0, OR 30 KNOTS, FROM PGTW. 
UNTIL THE SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, MOVING NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE AXIS, VWS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH AND CONVECTION WILL 
STRUGGLE TO DEEPEN OVER THE CENTER. POSITION CONFIDENCE IS POOR, BUT 
IN GENERAL THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
DAY, NEARER TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND LOWER VWS. STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT BOUTS OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 
30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD.

RT @girisubu: Never b4 experienced rain and thundershowers in Mumbai a day b4 Diwali..strange weather!!! (7:07pm)

RT @supriyan: okay i don't think i have ever seen rain during diwali in my life. is this a central mumbai thing? suspicious (7:28pm)

RT @harshadapte: 'November rain' in Mumbai! (7:07pm)

RT @calamur: strange weather for diwali - howling winds, there is rain and thunder mumbai - feels like a thunderstorm .

RT @varadhkrish: Diwali fireworks sounds stop as if muted suddenly due to rain Chennai update (7:25pm)

@thesvt >> Entire west coast will be active with showers till the Bay depression reaches Tamilnadu or Andhra coast.

RT @shals88: Its cloudy in chennai .. i wish it doesn t rain .. Lots of work to do outside .. (4:04pm)

In matheran now. violent thunderstorm with heavy lightning. started at
6 pm with 45mms in 1 hour

--
Regards,

Rajesh.

5:30am, IMD MSLP map shows the location of S-E bay depression / Low ... http://ow.ly/i/5b9U

Cyclone Jal :: IMD-GFS suggests a landfall along Chennai and S. Andhra on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5b9L

Chennai - Now 10:45am, Having good cloud formation from N-E.. sharp showers possible.

Chitradurga, Karnataka :: Heavy rain claims three lives ... http://ow.ly/34b5v

Most of the weather models suggest that the present Depression will become into Cyclone status before landfall over Tamilnadu/andhra coast.

Cyclone jal :: NOGAPS model suggests a central Tamilnadu landfall on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5b0F

Cyclone jal :: NCEP-GFS model suggests a S.ANdhra coast landfall on 7-Nov... http://ow.ly/i/5b0u

FNMOC-EFS model still predicts a Central Tamilnadu landfall on 7 or 8-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/5b0e

Timesofindia.indiatimes.com :: For Andhra, Super cyclone threat looms over Diwali ... http://ow.ly/349GS

www.deccanchronicle.com :: For Andhra , Cyclone threat recedes for now ??? ... http://ow.ly/349EJ

8am, S. Andhra coast getting some showers.. rest of India is having a mostly clear sky... http://ow.ly/i/5aZp

Chennai - cloudy now 8:57am, with cloud movement from N-E ... sharp showers possible.

RT @sforsenthilc: Chennai - koyambed bus stand . It was raining at guindy and here ...but not a sngl drop @ vadapalani..choosy rain (3:14am)

RT @rpsendhil: It's always beautiful morning with little rain (chennai)

Update on S-E Bay Depression / Low ... Cyclone "JAL" on the making ?? ... http://ow.ly/349qW

on evening of 3-Nov-2010, Low in the Arabian Sea precipitated heavy rains in Goa .. http://ow.ly/349pM

Bay Depression Position:

Location: 8.6N and 91.3E. Movement North-West in 6 hrs.About 1150/1200 kms SE from Chennai.

Core Pressure: 1000 mb. Reduced from 1002 mb

Wind Speeds: 30 Knts. 

Getting organised with swirl bands forming, indicating wall formation. Means, core pressure set to fall.Cirrus clouds in NW have formed with jet stream drag.

Update on S-E Bay Depression / Low ... Cyclone "JAL" on the making ??

Position :: 8.6N , 91.3E
Wind :: 55 KMPH
Pressure :: 1000 mb

JTWC
--------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.2N 94.0E TO 8.8N 87.1E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
031200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.0N
92.7E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 
95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 031054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH, THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS), THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE 
WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD RADIAL 
OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND 
HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.

JTWC tracking

-----------------------------

Latest satellite shot
-----------------------------

03NOV 2010 / 1800 Z:-

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 95.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.0N 92.7E, APPROXIMATELY 790 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION AND A 031054Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 KNOTS), THE LLCC HAS CONTINUED TO ORGANIZE WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.

· The wind shear is prominent along 10 Degree North Latitude.

· The pole ward divergence is also getting organized.