October 23, 2016 at 06:21PM

JTWC has issued Cyclone formation alert for 99B.
Marginal Cyclone expected in next 30hrs and track N,NNW #iwm

— Indian Weather Man (@weatherofindia) October 23, 2016

For more tweets follow :: @weatherofindia

99B - Intensity and where it can move ?

99B is now a depression (according to IMD) and nearing Myanmar coast. 

But US Navy still plotting pressure around 1004mb ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofcXi.jpg

12pm, Most of convective activity is still concentrated over W,SW,NW quadrants of 99B.

T showers popping over Myanmar coast ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofd3t.jpg

99B - What next?

It'll track NE for 24hrs and then North or NNW into North Bay on 25-Oct.

As shear is low, it'll intensify to Cyclone.

For 99B..

GEFS expects the system to track NNW and crash into S Bangladesh... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdjs.jpg

HWRF model suggests or confused about the track "after 99B reaches Cyclone and drifts into N Bay" ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdmk.jpg

UKMET model suggests a WSW drift after 99B reaches North Bay as a Cyclone ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdsH.jpg

Why models are confused?

All because of the 2 ridges and the 99B is struck right in-between ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofdzL.jpg

Next 2 days, scattered T showers expected over central,N-central,W-ghats Kerala and into Nw,W,central,SE,central-coast Tamilnadu ... https://d2jhuj1whasmze.cloudfront.net/photos/normal/ofgFX.jpg