Here is the latest satellite pic 7 pm India Time.
We can notice lot's of small and big Electric storms along it's TAIL ...around orissa, Andhra.
And we can notice a BIG electric storm over western ghats.
News about "bijli" is that it's skimming along, and now almost crossing Bangladesh.
Present WET conditions over Bay is going to vanish after 20-Apr-09.
A mild wet disturbance to come around 1st week of May.
Super DRY and HOT spell is from 6-May to 16-May.
And South-west monsoon is coming good after 26-May-09.
We'll keep updating this MJO factor.
For the past week the MJO factor proved perfect.
Here is the latest tracking data and prediction from JTWC.
So far, JTWC predictions has proved right.
It seems the Cyclone will intensify further before making land fall.
POSITION NEAR 20.7N 89.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (BIJLI) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
ANIMATED INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
17/0130Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS. TC 01B
HAS TURNED MORE EASTWARD ALONG NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTRO-
PICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE CYCLONE HAS MAINTAINED
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS AS SUPPRESSED OUTFLOW BALANCES THE
FAVORABLE INFLUENCES OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER WARM
WATER. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL IN
SOUTHEASTERN BANGLADESH AROUND TAU 18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DISSIPATE
RAPIDLY AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER INLAND TERRAIN. THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 17 FEET.
Latest satellite pic (4 pm India time)... shows the CORE is almost touching the coast of Bangladesh.
Regardless of JTWC prediction, We might have a landfall over Bangladesh in another 2 hrs.
We'll update it as and when it happens.