Tuesday, June 21, 2011
Second stage monsoon long-range forecast later today
India Meteorological Department (IMD) will come out with its second stage long-range forecast of the prevailing monsoon, which has run up an overall surplus almost 25 days into the season despite some deficit towards the east.
The first stage forecast was given out on April 19, which gave a ‘normal’ seasonal outlook. The second stage deals with the outlook for the crucial sowing month of July and the rest of the four-month season.
Global models have been indicating a certain amount of continued vulnerability to east and northeast India, being carried forward from the two preceding years. This is a worrying trend.
As of June 20, seven out of the nine deficit-reporting Met sub-divisions were from the east and northeast. The situation must have been drastically altered since then thanks to the pulsating tenure of the depression-turned-deep depression in east India but not in the northeast.
Meanwhile, the prevailing monsoon depression has not shown any signs of weakening this (Tuesday) morning after being air borne and in constant churn over east and adjoining east-central India for an extended period.
It could, however, run into some resistance after being forced to share available moisture feed with a weather system brewing far across to the east over northwest Pacific.
By that time, it would have heralded monsoon into the ‘blanked out’ parts of north and western Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat while taking time off to establish itself over east India. These also include madhya Maharashtra and Marathawada.
Additionally, it would also cover west Uttar Pradesh and east Rajasthan, and with some assistance from a prevailing upper air cyclonic circulation, most parts of northwest India excluding possibly west Rajasthan during this run.
Global model forecasts indicate a fresh wave of rains from along the west coast by the weekend. Associated southwesterlies might go on to meet with monsoon easterlies from the Bay over the Indo-Gangetic plains to push rains further into northwest.
Meanwhile, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in an update this (Tuesday) morning that the monsoon depression located over southeast Uttar Pradesh and adjoining east Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand the previous night had moved northwestwards and lay centred over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining East Uttar Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, about 100 km southwest of Varanasi and 120 km east of Rewa.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards direction and weaken gradually.
The upper air cyclonic circulation over northwest Rajasthan and neighbourhood persists. The feeble western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and adjoining north Pakistan too persists.
Satellite pictures showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, east Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, the Northeastern States and northeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal.
A weather warning issued by the IMD said that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at isolated places over north Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh and east Uttar Pradesh until Wednesday.
Heavy rainfall may occur at isolated places over west Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha until Thursday. Isolated thunder squalls could rip through Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh.
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