"94B" parallel to Chennai

From morning we are tracking "94B"... thru the day, the system gathered moisture and wind. Now (10:20pm,14-Apr-09) it's a potential Cyclone.

Take a look at the latest and some sequence of satellite pics taken from Morning of 14-Apr-09

.

and here is the latest...

Now JTWC is tracking it as "Tropical cyclone formation Alert".

Here is the report and prediction graphic...

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
225 NM RADIUS OF 12.7N 87.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 140010Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 140001Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THAT PROVIDS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD

Latest GFS models suggests that the "would be cyclone" will move away from Southern Mainland and will eventually die out over the sea.

Take a look at the 72hr prediction till 17-Apr-09.

And GFS also suggests that under it's influence the coastal regions along Andhra and North-Tamilnadu might get showers ... this is due to increase in Total Percipitable water along the coast.

Cyclone potential "94B"

Chennai:

Warm at 34 deg and with 60% humidity.

Now(9:13AM) it's warm and with high cloud cover around.

Looking at the latest satellite pic

"94B" has grown in strength during the past 24 hrs.

FNMOC is tracking it from the begining, 2 days ago.

Here's the report & forecast from JTWC...:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.8N 87.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 425 NM EAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
INDICATES A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS REMAINED
PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE
LLCC. A 131335Z SSMIS AND A 131526Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATE WEAK
BANDING TOWARD THE LLCC WITH MOST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS ELONGATED ALONG A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST AXIS, BUT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS PROVIDING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
POOR.
JTWC doesn't put it as a threat to land as of now.

The latest 48hrs GFS prediction by FNMOC shows

"94B" will head north into Bay and weaken. And some showers forecast for us after 72hrs.

We'll keep monitoring it, thru the day.

You can follow our tweets for more thru the day

http://twitter.com/rakeshngl