From morning we are tracking "94B"... thru the day, the system gathered moisture and wind. Now (10:20pm,14-Apr-09) it's a potential Cyclone.
Take a look at the latest and some sequence of satellite pics taken from Morning of 14-Apr-09
and here is the latest...
Now JTWC is tracking it as "Tropical cyclone formation Alert".
Here is the report and prediction graphic...
FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A
225 NM RADIUS OF 12.7N 87.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 87.8E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.8N
87.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 87.8E, APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF
CHENNAI, INDIA. MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 140010Z AMSU-B PASS INDICATES FRAGMENTED
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED
NEAR THE CENTER AND ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. A 140001Z
QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS 20-25KT WINDS WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY AND INTO THE CENTER OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
THAT PROVIDS GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION AND
ORGANIZATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD
Latest GFS models suggests that the "would be cyclone" will move away from Southern Mainland and will eventually die out over the sea.
Take a look at the 72hr prediction till 17-Apr-09.
And GFS also suggests that under it's influence the coastal regions along Andhra and North-Tamilnadu might get showers ... this is due to increase in Total Percipitable water along the coast.