Thursday, October 20, 2011
Thailand met. model also predicts a circulation to pop over S.Bay on 22-Oct.. similar to IMD model.. http://ow.ly/i/jxmf
A cyclone alert in the north-east Bay of Bengal was withdrawn apparently after proximity to land ruled out the intensification of a deep depression off the Myanmar and Bangladesh coast on Wednesday.
An afternoon bulletin of India Meteorological Department (IMD) had briefly flagged the cyclone formation alert after the previous day's well-marked low-pressure area underwent intensification twice over during the few hours in the morning.
The system spun furiously to become a depression, and further onward to a deep depression, putting it just another spin away from being named as a tropical cyclone.
Global cyclone categorisation methods had already tagged it as a ‘numbered cyclone 02B,' which is the penultimate step ahead of named cyclone classification.
The evening bulletin of IMD withdrew formation alert and merely said that the deep depression over north-east Bay moved north-eastwards and lay centred south of Cox's Bazar (Bangladesh).
The system is likely to move further north-eastwards and cross Bangladesh coast close to Cox's Bazar by the evening or the night.
Satellite cloud imagery in the afternoon showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of Tripura, Mizoram, Manipur, north-east and central Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea.
A weather warning valid for Thursday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.
Meanwhile, the disturbance in the east and northeast Bay of Bengal has apparently upset the flow pattern, delaying the onset of the north-east monsoon.
The storm would have to die out, before easterly to north-easterly flow can resume over the Bay of Bengal. This is not expected to happen for at least another couple of days
A weak N-E monsoon current will start to affect Tamilnadu coast from 23-Oct... and it'll pick strength from 24-Oct.
E.coast of Tamilnadu is taking a break to host N-E monsoon in another 3 to 4 days
By evening of 22-Oct.. a weak current of N-E monsoon will reach Tamilnadu coast. It'll pickup strength from 23-Oct
From evening of 19-Oct, N-E monsoon current is over S-E Bay corner
"02B" will die over South of N-E states and over N-W Myanmar in another 24 hrs.