Saturday, July 31, 2010
Karwar: 2302 (+356)
Harnai: 2218 (+648)
Jalpaiguri: 1825 (+348)
Kozhikode: 1762 (+16)
Coochbehar: 1655 (+120)
Dahanu: 1646 (+460)
The current low, now over west M.P./Gujarat at 998 mb, is maintaining its precipitation strenght. With Good rainfall along its path, and good capacity to attract cloud mass from the Arabian Sea, it has generously drenched Central India, Maharashtra coast, and many pockets of Gujarat too.
A vortex (see map) in the north Arabian sea has suddenly increased precipitation along the north maharashtra coast (Mumbai) on Friday.Vortex expected to merge with the incoming system.
Keeping up the trend, like the previous low, this system should wipe out the "red" region totally.
Well, as a reader has asked,, could it now track SW ? Difficult ! My estimate is that a weakening system should move, along the axis, west-northwest, into Rajasthan. Precipitation will also shift from M.P. to Konkan,Gujarat and South Rajasthan from Saturday. At this rate, Konkan and Gujarat should be piling up in surplus.
More Rains for this weekend (Saturday thru Monday) in South Rajasthan, Gujarat, especially coastal Gujarat and Konkan getting very heavy falls on Sunday (upto 150 mms in pockets) in 24 hrs,and then the wet patch rolling into Sindh coast from Tuesday.
What next for the week ?? See a system on the east coast of Thailand ! Take your binocs and lets watch out for a pulse emerging from it in the bay ! Taking a clue from this forecast map of 6th. Aug from "Weather Zone"
Standing out prominently is the rainfall at Dehra Dun. 364 mms in 24 hrs eneded Saturday morning. Another noteworthy reading, Bareilly, 75 mms. Reason: Yesterday, another cyclonic circulation extending upto 3.1 kms a.s.l. was over west Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Uttarakhand. Interacting with western disturbance as an UAC in the same altitude, there was an instant formation of high clouds (rain bearing) in the region, as a cold front was locally created.
Mumbai: With the help of a 3 hour drenching on Saturday morning, Mumbai Colaba season's total has overshot the 2000 mms mark, and stands at 2046 mms as on Saturday morning. The 3 hour downpour overshot my forecast of 30 mms for saturday by 24 mms.
Saturday and Sunday will also be wet, as per the analysis above. Would not hesitate to expect 150 mms Saturday thru Sunday.
Very frequent rains during daytime Some extremely heavy falls could flood low areas. Rain intensity tapering a bit by sunday evening.
Monday:expect frequent showers to continue, but with 40 mms of rain that day.
And not a soul is going to crib in Mumbai ! The combined lakes are now at a storage level of 6.7 lmlitres, against a full capacity of 13 lmlitres. 51.5 % full up.
Friday, July 30, 2010
Krishnaraja Sagar dam (KRS)
Heavy rain in neighbouring district of Kodagu has augmented the inflow into the KRS. Officials in the Cauvery Command Area Development Authority (CADA) told The Hindu that the inflow into the reservoir was 14,874 cusecs on Thursday morning and it increased to nearly 17,000 cusecs by evening. The outflow from the reservoir was 3,500 cusecs. The water-level in the KRS was 91.30 ft as against the full reservoir level (FRL) of 124.80 ft. The live storage in the reservoir was 8.34 tmcft.Kabini dam
The Kapila is rising owing to heavy rain in Wayanad district of Kerala which is the catchment area. As a result of incessant rain in the last 24 hours, the inflow into the Kabini dam at Beechanahalli in H.D. Kote increased significantly. The water-level in the reservoir is 2281.5 ft as against the FRL of 2,284 ft. The inflow into the reservoir was 22,271 cusecs at 6 a.m. but increased to 24.750 cusecs by evening.Harangi reservoir
Harangi reservoir near Kushalnagar was let out into the river on Wednesday, as the water-level reached 2,854.70 ft as against the full reservoir level of 2,859 ft. The inflow increased to 16,646 cusecs. While 9,000 cusecs was released into the river on Wednesday night, this was reduced to 4,769 cusecs on Thursday morning.
The average rainfall for Kodagu district has crossed the 1,000-mm mark this year. According to statistics received on Thursday, the district recorded 1,132.33 mm of rainfall. The figure during the corresponding period last year was 1,754.65 mm. Bhagamandala received 98.40 mm of rainfall between 8 a.m. on Wednesday and 8 a.m. on Thursday. Shantalli in Somwarpet taluk continued to receive the highest rainfall of 156.20 mm during the same period, while Sampaje recorded 93.40 mm, Madikeri 92.40 mm, Srimangala 87 mm, Hudikeri 77.50 mm and Kodlipet 53.20 mm rainfall.
Water was released into the Tungabhadra Left Bank Canal (TLBC) on Wednesday to facilitate sowing of kharif crops in the command areas of Koppal and Raichur districts. Water will be supplied to the canal till mid-November.Water was also released into the Tungabhadra Right Bank High-Level Canal (RBHLC) and the Right Bank Low-Level Canal (RBLLC) to facilitate sowing of kharif crops in the command areas of Bellary district and parts of Andhra Pradesh. Water will be supplied to the canal till November-end.
This year, the release of water has begun even before the storage at the reservoir has not yet reached to its Full Reservoir Level (1,633 ft.). On Wednesday, July 28, the inflow was at 56.242 cusecs, the water level was 1,613.73 ft. with storage of 43.305 tmcft. of water.During the corresponding period last year, the level of the reservoir touched the Full Reservoir Level with storage of 104.340 tmcft.
The water levels of various reservoirs built on River Krishna are slowly rising with more rains reported in the catchment area. Almatti dam in Karnataka is almost up to brim and is releasing more than one lakh cusecs of water to downstream Narayanpur dam in the same state. Narayanpur also started releasing water into Jurala in AP as the discharge from Almatti stepped up on Thursday. At Jurala, water level reached 1,043 feet against 1,045-feet full reservoir level. Irrigation officials opened 24 gates at Jurala to let 25,000 cusecs water downstream.
Increased inflows from Krishna and Tungabadhra saw a sudden surge of water into Srisailam reservoir where the water level touched 835 feet against 885-feet full reservoir level (FRL). This will help the authorities generate more power to ease the ongoing shortage.
Sriram Sagar reservoir
In the Godavari basin, the Sriram Sagar reservoir continues to receive copious inflows from upstream. The water level reached 1,075 feet against 1,091-feet full reservoir level. Singur, Nizamsagar, Yeluru reservoirs also received substantial inflows in the last three days with widespread rains in the catchment area.
New on "Vagaries": Mars Weather !
"This is the first dust devil that NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Opportunity has observed in the rover's six-and-a-half years on Mars. Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Cornell University/Texas A&M
The Opportunity rover has captured an image of a dust devil, and surprisingly, this is the first one ever that Oppy has spied. Spirit has seen dozens of dust devils over on the other side of the planet in Gusev Crater, and even the Phoenix lander's camera captured several of these whirling dust dervishes during its short four-and-a-half month life. Plus the different orbiting spacecraft have seen evidence of plenty of dust devils by using their eyes from the skies. But this is the first one Oppy's cameras have managed to shoot. This tall column of swirling dust appeared in a routine image that Opportunity took with its panoramic camera on July 15, 2010. The rover took the image in the drive direction, east-southeastward, right after a drive of about 70 meters (230 feet), and was taken for use in planning the next drive.
But obviously, over the years, Opportunity has benefited from dust devils – or perhaps just gusts of wind – as she has had a series of unexpected boosts in electrical power when the pervasive Martian dust gets cleaned off her solar panels. And just one day before Opportunity captured this dust devil image, wind cleaned some of the dust off the rover's solar array, increasing electricity output from the array by more than 10 percent. These unexpected – but welcome – Martian "car washes" have helped extend the life of both rovers.
"That might have just been a coincidence, but there could be a connection" between the cleaning event and the dust devil in the image, said Mark Lemmon of the rover team from Texas A&M University. The team is resuming systematic checks for afternoon dust devils with Opportunity's navigation camera, for the first time in about three years".
Please give feedback if readers are interested in "vagaries" write up on Mars Weather.I would also welcome more such info. from readers.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
1.NUWE - got it right
The models which failed to predict today’s chennai rain1.FORECA
Chennai (Nungambakkam) – 18 mm
Chennai (Meenambakkam) – 33 mm
Mumbai (Colaba) – 56 mm
Mumbai (Santacruz) – 25 mm
Bangalore – 39 mm
ISRO – 28 mm
Agumbe – 97 mm
Mahabaleshwar – 34 mm
Ambala – 23 mm
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Stage 1 of our estimate is surprisingly on schedule. Today, 28th. we see the formation of a 1002 mb low off the A.P./Orissa coast. Like I mentioned, this should now deepen, to at least 996 mb for a "major" effect along its path,( Whichever path it takes) and along the west coast. But contrary to my expectations, it is precariously close to the coast, and i feel it may not deepen much. Anyway, lets wait i see, i may be proved wrong. Also we see the winds picking up along the Kerala/Karnataka coast, rushing towards the nascent low. See map of accumalated rains). Hope my presentation is clear and precise this time ! :)
We see the monsoon axis, seasonal trough, running along the line joining the seasonal low in Sindh, thru a 1002 mb low embedded in the trough towards the new low in the bay. Hence, we could see some rains along this line next 2 days. The erstwhile low, having drenched Gujarat, has weakened into the sindh desert, and should dissipate by tomorrow. Rainfall along the sindh coast and interiors will decrease and diminish from Thursday evening, as the low dissipates.
Mumbai,utilise this lull till the new low deepens and crosses the coastline. (Maybe by Thursday night/Friday??)
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
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Tweets for "mumbai rain" on 26-Jul-2010
everyday at 8:15am
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