Cyclone Mahasen is nearing Bangladesh coast ... for live tracking , please use this link ... http://wxug.us/13uje

11pm, Chittagong, Bangladesh has reported "Rain, mild breeze from E-N-E"

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Moving rapidly towards Bangladesh coast !

Analysis show that the Cyclone has moved N-N-E and that too in a fast pace.
Latest position is 17.9N , 88.2E
Pressure is still around 989 mb and wind gusts up to 83 kmph

2pm, Satellite shot shows good convective activity along its northern quadrant and Rain nearing Bangladesh.

JTWC warning at 2:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM
SOUTHWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED 
UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
SEEN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON AN OLDER 141811Z 
OSCAT PASS SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS WERE BETWEEN 35 TO 40 KNOTS, 
IN COMBINATION WITH THE MOST RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND 
PGTW REFLECTING A 45 KNOT SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN 
ANTICYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC IS CREATING LOW TO MODERATE 
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
TC 01B. VWS VALUES HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, 
ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE LLCC. THE STORM IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE POLEWARD ORIENTED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL WESTERLY FLOW ADVECTS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND. A 
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED AS THE 
LLCC TRACKS INTO A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, BUT DUE TO THE TRACK SPEED 
AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF BANGLADESH, THIS INCREASE WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED. DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN UPON MAKING LANDFALL 
AFTER TAU 24 WITH FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING THE JTWC FORECAST TO BE 
POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET.

:: WARNING ::

The cyclone is expected to make landfall along S,S-E Bangladesh coast by early hrs or early morning of 16-May. Very heavy rain with high wind gusts expected over most of South,central Bangladesh, S,S-E Bengal and into South Western N-E states (Mizoram, Tirupura) of India.

People living in above mentioned zones "TAKE CARE"

On 14-May, highest maximum temperature of 44.5°C was recorded at Barmer (Rajasthan)

#HOT at 2:30pm, Ahmedabad = 43 C, Nagpur, Varanasi = 42 C, #Delhi, Thiruchirapalli = 41 C, Jaipur = 40 C, Amristar = 38 C.

Very good Satellite Visible shot of Cyclone "Mahasen" taken on 13-May-2013 ... http://ow.ly/i/27q3k

#Chennai - 3:10pm, partly cloudy, temperature around 35 C (feels like 41.9 C) , but touched 38 C at around 1:30pm. Humidity around 54 %

Mahasen Update as on Wed.  noon

from vagaries

Cyclone "Mahasen" - Now near Odisha coast, Moving N-E, Bangladesh "take care"

Now the cyclone is near Odisha coast and showed some signs of weakening. It has tracked N-E during past 8hrs. 
Present position is 16.8N , 87.6E.
Pressure remains the same around 989mb and winds up to 83 kmph

9:30am, Satellite visible shot shows Deep convection seen along Odisha coast.

According to JTWC, Mahasen will make landfall over S.Bangladesh coast on evening of 16-May. And it also predicts a slight intensification before making landfall.

Latest COLA model suggests a landfall around noon / evening of 16-May over South Bangladesh coast.
Bangladesh "Take care"

JTWC warning at 8:30am IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) LOCATED UNDER THE 
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 142339Z 
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE POSITION OF THE LLCC UNDER THE 
EASTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION IS 
PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, INDICATING DECREASING EASTERLY 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ESTIMATED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE 142330Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD 
ALONG THE POLEWARD ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL WESTERLY FLOW 
ADVECTS THE SYSTEM OVERLAND. AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT LEADING THE JTWC FORECAST TO BE POSITIONED CLOSE 
TO MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WESTERLY FLOW WILL 
INCREASE THE SYSTEM TO A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS BY TAU 36. 
STORM DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED OVER LAND BY TAU 72. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 12 FEET.

Cyclone "Mahasen" - As expected, it has moved N-E, No intensification yet!

During the past 6hrs, the system has moved N-E.
Now it has turned it movement towards Bangladesh coast, this was expected by most of the weather model except NAVGEM.
Latest position is 15.1N , 86.4E
Pressure remains the same around 989 mb

11pm, Satellite IR shows good convective activity around the system.

Latest JTWC path projection forecasts that the system may slightly intensify during next 24hrs and continue to track N-E. Expected landfall over South Bangaldesh coast is on morning of 17-May as a Cyclone.

But COLA GFS predicts a landfall over South Bangladesh coast on 16-May as a Cyclone.

JTWC warning at 8:30pm IST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (MAHASEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 484 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BUILT BACK OVER 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS 
FROM THE CONVERGENT BANDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 45 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS 
BASED ON A RECENT 140538Z OSCAT PASS INDICATING CENTRAL WINDS 
BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM KNES AND PGTW 
SUPPORTING 45 KNOTS. THE LLCC HAS BEEN STEADILY TRACKING TO THE 
NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE 
EAST OF TC 01B. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS STARTED TO DECREASE 
AND IS CURRENTLY AT MODERATE LEVELS (15 TO 20 KNOTS), ALLOWING FOR 
THE BUILDING CONVECTION NOTED EARLIER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES TC 
01B WILL REMAIN ON A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BAY OF 
BENGAL. FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29 TO 30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS) ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
(INCREASING DIVERGENCE AND DECREASING VWS), WILL HELP TO SUPPORT A 
STEADY INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 48. INCREASING TRACK SPEEDS AND 
VWS AS TC 01B MOVES NORTH OF THE STR AXIS WILL START TO WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL AROUND TAU 72. BEYOND LANDFALL, THE LLCC 
WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH BANGLADESH 
INTO NORTHERN MYANMAR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 21 FEET.

:: WARNING ::

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

According COLA model, Showers are expected to start along Odisha coast, Bengal coast and Bangladesh coast from noon tomorrow.

By late evening the rain intensity and wind speed is expected to increase along S.Bengal and South Bangladesh coast.

Wind gusts are also expected all along the coast of above mentioned regions.

Sea over entire North Bay will be very rough from tomorrow noon. (yellow color on the map indicates wave height above 20 feet)