HELEN
UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) Version 8.1.5 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm
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Thursday, November 21, 2013
Helen now close to coast
A W.D system is expected to affect Kashmir, N Punjab on 23-Nov.
As of now, Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu (except for S tip Tamilnadu) during next 2 days !
5:30pm, A LOW is slowly drifting into S-E corner of Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3Nbry
T showers expected to continue over S,central Kerala, W,S-W W-ghats of Tamilnadu and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.
#COLD conditions over N,N-W,N-central,W,central, East #India to continue during next 2 nights.
As of now, Almost NO rain expected for most of Tamilnadu (except for S tip Tamilnadu) during next 2 days !
5:30pm, A LOW is slowly drifting into S-E corner of Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/3Nbry
T showers expected to continue over S,central Kerala, W,S-W W-ghats of Tamilnadu and S tip Tamilnadu during next 2 days.
#COLD conditions over N,N-W,N-central,W,central, East #India to continue during next 2 nights.
Helen - Heavy rain along N-central Andhra coast, No weakening seen yet, 190km S-S-E of Kakinada
At 5:30pm, Cyclone HELEN has not shown any weakness, it has drifted to West now.
Pressure around 978 mb
Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Latest RADAR shows, Rain have pushed into N-central,central Andhra coast.
6:40pm, Now it is around 195 km from Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
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Satellite IR at 6pm, shows major Cloud mass has started to push into Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
JTWC, NAVGEM expects the system to drift W-S-W in next 12hrs and make landfall near Machilipatnam, on noon of Friday.
But the Cyclone may push West or W-N-W from now on, and make landfall along Mahilipatnam to Kakinada coastline in next 12hrs.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for people and properties along central Andhra coast.
Pressure around 978 mb
Winds reaching to 135 kmph.
Latest RADAR shows, Rain have pushed into N-central,central Andhra coast.
6:40pm, Now it is around 195 km from Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
.gif)
Satellite IR at 6pm, shows major Cloud mass has started to push into Machilipatnam to Kakinada coast.
JTWC, NAVGEM expects the system to drift W-S-W in next 12hrs and make landfall near Machilipatnam, on noon of Friday.
But the Cyclone may push West or W-N-W from now on, and make landfall along Mahilipatnam to Kakinada coastline in next 12hrs.
Dangerous next 18hrs ahead for people and properties along central Andhra coast.
HELEN - Drifting N-N-W and maintaining same intensity. 200km S-E from Kakinada
Analysis at 1pm, show that the system has slowly move N-N-W, maintaining its intensity.
Now positioned at around 200km S-E from Kakinada.
Pressure around 978 mb.
Winds gusting upto 130 kmph.
Going by latest movement and travel speed, the Landfall can take place along Kakinada and Machilipatnam coast in next 12hrs.
1:30pm, Satellite visible and Visakapatnam RADAR image suggests Rain has started along N coast Andhra, even into Visakapatnam.
High winds reaching to 130 kmph and HEAVY rain are expected along coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Showers with High winds can push into S Odisha as well in next 18hrs.
Now positioned at around 200km S-E from Kakinada.
Pressure around 978 mb.
Winds gusting upto 130 kmph.
Going by latest movement and travel speed, the Landfall can take place along Kakinada and Machilipatnam coast in next 12hrs.
1:30pm, Satellite visible and Visakapatnam RADAR image suggests Rain has started along N coast Andhra, even into Visakapatnam.
High winds reaching to 130 kmph and HEAVY rain are expected along coast between Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Showers with High winds can push into S Odisha as well in next 18hrs.
Helen - Drifted N-W and Intensified. 250km E-S-E from Machilipatnam
During past 10hrs, Cyclone HELEN has not moved significantly, in fact it has only drifted N-W.
Latest ADT analysis suggest that the system has intensified by dropping pressure from 992mb to 980mb.
Present wind gusts are upto 130 kmph.
Location is 15.33 N , 83.51 E... around 250 km E-S-E from Machilipatnam.
Visible shot at 8:30am, reveals there is heavy convective activity around its center.
Now the predicted landfall is near Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Since the movement is very slow, LESS rain activity seen along coastline.
Some rain seen pushing into N-coast of Andhra above Machilipatnam.
Almost NO rain expected along N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai till evening, unless the system makes a W-S-W movement.
Latest ADT analysis suggest that the system has intensified by dropping pressure from 992mb to 980mb.
Present wind gusts are upto 130 kmph.
Location is 15.33 N , 83.51 E... around 250 km E-S-E from Machilipatnam.
Visible shot at 8:30am, reveals there is heavy convective activity around its center.
Now the predicted landfall is near Machilipatnam and Kakinada.
Since the movement is very slow, LESS rain activity seen along coastline.
Some rain seen pushing into N-coast of Andhra above Machilipatnam.
Almost NO rain expected along N-coast Tamilnadu and #Chennai till evening, unless the system makes a W-S-W movement.
Helen at 5:30am, 21-Nov-2013
HELEN
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