Wednesday, March 31, 2010

Monsoon dirt trail leads to India: Study .... http://bit.ly/9ln93z
First summer rain in bangalore .... http://bit.ly/94tyoc
Mumbai to get Doppler Radar by May 31..... http://bit.ly/akHw2v
RT @RainwaterPillow: National Geographic reports Lessons From the Field—Rainwater Harvesting in India. http://tinyurl.com/y9m4gyz
All thunder cells over South Peninsula has become inactive now 11pm... http://ping.fm/gWtgf
Heat wave conditions are prevailing over some parts south Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and interior Orissa.
Trough runs from Bihar to Kerala across Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Karnataka in lower levels
Today's maximum temperature of 42.5°C recorded at Sambalpur(Orissa).
Quake hits Andaman, Orissa; tremors felt in Chennai, Hong Kong ... http://bit.ly/cVOuCR
Chennai - Bangalore v Chennai -- Bangalore has chosen to bat in very humid conditions & mild breeze from East and temp. now 3:50pm is 33.6°C
RT @ShrutiGoutham: Ah! See, this is why I live in Bangalore...One rain and the weather is pleasant once again.
RT @AshwinMohandas: Pleasant weather in Mysore area. The rain has defenitely done its bit not just in Bangalore but surrounding districts
RT @Muneeshchauhan: its rain....rain.....rain....!!! in Bangalore....hope to continue....
RT @080Traffic: RT @surekhas: Tiny bit of rain and traffic gets even crazier in bangalore. Took over half an hour just 2 get through
RT @ashvala: The rain just made Bangalore feel cool. Cooler than any place in south India! =). Co-incidentally, it is on the last day of exm
RT @ashvala: The rain just made Bangalore feel cool. Cooler than any place in south India! =). Co-incidentally, it is on the last day of exams.
Getting reports of Rain in Bangalore
Chennai - At 2:30pm, A thunder cell visible 100 km North-west of Chennai .. http://yfrog.com/iyj1fj
Thunder cells has started blooming over Andhra and Orissa .. http://yfrog.com/iyj1fj
Hailstorm damages houses, crops in northeast India ... http://bit.ly/bfrJQL
Heat wave conditions may continue over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and interior Orissa during next 24 h
On 30-Mar, highest maximum temperature of 42.20 C was recorded at Jamshedpur (Jharkhand).
On 30-Mar, Maximum temperatures are below normal by 4-8°C over northeastern states and sub-Himalayan West Bengal & Sikkim
Rainfall over India on 30-Mar, Heavy over N-E states and over south Kerala .. http://ping.fm/OzYSd
Today's afternoon thunderstorms over Southern Peninsula will be bit delayed, more towards 5pm.
Waiting for afternoon thunder storms over Orissa, N-E Andhra, western Ghats, South Kerala and South Karnataka .. http://ping.fm/c1aB1
Chennai - Today Touched a HIGH for this Mar-10 month .. 36.6°C (11:30am). Now 1:34pm we have stiff breeze from East, this will cool things.
NCEP : Easterly wave during 6-Apr week will bring rain for south Kerala and adjoining interior Tamil Nadu but less over coastal Tamil Nadu
NCEP, the westerlies may set up a string of thunderstorms along the Himalayan foothills and north-east during the week ending April 6.
thundershowers have helped cool down the North-East by bringing maximum temperatures to below normal by two to three deg Celsius
Heavy rain has lashed many places in the North-East as seasonal thundershowers peaked during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning
Global Hawk, NASA's New Remote-Controlled Plane ... http://bit.ly/d8Quri

Global Hawk, NASA's New Remote-Controlled Plane

At NASA’s Dryden Research Center in California, a group of engineers, scientists, and aviation technicians have set up camp in a noisy, chilly hangar on Edwards Air Force base. For the past two weeks, they have been working to mount equipment—from HD video cameras to ozone sensors—onto NASA’s Global Hawk, a remote-controlled airplane that can fly for up to 30 hours at altitudes up to 65,000 feet.
The team is gearing up for the Global Hawk Pacific campaign, a series of four or five scientific research flights that will take the Global Hawk over the Pacific Ocean and Arctic regions. The 44-foot-long aircraft, with its comically large nose and 116-foot wingspan is pictured in the photograph above, banking for landing over Rogers Dry Lake in California at the end of a test flight on October 23, 2009. The long wings carry the plane’s fuel, and the bulbous nose is one of the payload bays, which house the science instruments.
For the Global Hawk Pacific campaign, the robotic aircraft will carry ten science instruments that will sample the chemical composition of air in the troposphere (the atmospheric layer closest to Earth) and the stratosphere (the layer above the troposphere). The mission will also observe clouds and aerosol particles in the troposphere. The primary purpose of the mission is to collect observations that can be used to check the accuracy of simultaneous observations collected by NASA’s Aura satellite.
Co-lead scientist Paul Newman from Goddard Space Flight Center is writing about the ground-breaking mission for the Earth Observatory’s Notes from the Field blog.
Chennai - is going to be HOT till 12pm and slowly go down after the sea breeze sets in.
Sat. shows heavy showers continue over North-east states.. http://yfrog.com/jxyppj
Morning Sat. shows, a partly cloudy U.P and Medium high cloud cover for South Karnataka.. http://yfrog.com/jxyppj

Heavy rain lashes North-East

Heavy rain has lashed many places in the North-East as seasonal thundershowers peaked during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning.

The weather-maker trough ran down from Bihar to northwest Bay of Bengal even as a facilitating western disturbance persisted over Jammu and Kashmir.

COOLS DOWN

The thundershowers have helped cool down the region by bringing maximum temperatures to below normal by two to three deg Celsius.

Moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal is expected to continue over the north-eastern States for three more days.

Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squall would occur over the north-eastern States during next two days before decreasing in intensity.

Isolated heavy rainfall accompanied with thunder squall is likely to occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the two days.

Forecast until Sunday said that scattered rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squall are likely over the north-eastern States.

Scattered rain or snow may occur over Jammu and Kashmir while being isolated over Himachal Pradesh.

PARTLY CLOUDED

Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, the Northeastern States, Andhra Pradesh and South Andaman Sea.

Isolated to scattered rain or snow would occur over western Himalayan region during next 24 hours.

The IMD has maintained the lookout for a fresh western disturbance affecting the western Himalayas around Friday.

This might set off scattered rain or snow in the region, while giving a lagged lease of life to thundershowers over the northeast.

According to the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the westerlies may set up a string of thunderstorms along the Himalayan foothills and lead to a blow-up over the north-east during the week ending April 6.

In the south, isolated rain or thundershowers have been forecast over Kerala, south Karnataka and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from remnant circulations of an easterly wave.

EASTERLY WAVE

The NCEP has stuck to its forecast for accentuation of the wave during the week ending April 6, bringing rainfall over southern Kerala and adjoining interior Tamil Nadu but less so over coastal Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, parts of Chhattisgarh and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan and interior Orissa.

Maximum temperatures are above normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over northwest, central and parts of east India and by 2 to 3 deg Celsius over parts of Maharashtra and extreme south peninsular India.

The day's maximum temperature of 42.4 deg Celsius was recorded at Jharsuguda in Orissa on Monday.


Maximum temperatures are expected to fall by 2 deg Celsius over northwest India during the next two days as the fresh westerly rolls in.

But temperatures are shown to rise over east and adjoining central India during the next three days as an overarching ridge (high-pressure area) from the north Pacific invades the upper atmosphere over central India.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), this ridge is forecast to cause a calibrated rise in temperatures over the region before heading north-northwest to drive up heat over Gujarat and west Rajasthan as well.

An IMD warning said that heat wave conditions may continue to hold over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and interior Orissa during the next 24 hours.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

Showers also seen over Nilgiris and North-west Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/7831nj
Chennai - Temp. touched a max of 35.6°C (11:32am) and presently 3 pm it's 34.1°C... Stiff breeze from South-East is slowly reducing the temp
Pune: No water cuts till June 15 ... http://bit.ly/bPEs3L
No sign of thunder showers yet over peninsular India.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from 2nd April
On 29-Mar, Maximum temperature of 42.4°C was recorded at Jharsuguda (Orissa).
Moisture incursion would continue over northeastern states during next 3 days
Heavy widespread showers witnessed over North-east states on 29-Mar-10 .. http://yfrog.com/1xk1mg
Next easterly wave will hold over southern extreme of India from 5-Apr to 14-Apr ... http://bit.ly/aolAiq
Rain or thundershowers could break out over southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala as another easterly wave from Bay of Bengal on April 5.
Mercury is likely to witness an upward climb over Orissa, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada and Maharashtra
Heating trend is forecast to head north-northwest from April 8 to become concentrated over the outback of Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan.
ECMWF :: Heat would be felt over east-central India to start with, and extend gradually to central India and west-central India.

Intense heat awaits central parts again

A high-pressure area extending from the northwest Pacific is forecast to enter peninsular India from Wednesday bringing a wave of intense heat, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

The heat would be felt over east-central India to start with, and extend gradually to central India and west-central India, ECMWF said in its forecast update on Monday.

UPWARD CLIMB

Mercury is likely to witness an upward climb in this manner – over Orissa, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, east Madhya Pradesh, Marathwada and madhya Maharashtra.

The heating trend is forecast to head north-northwest from April 8 to become concentrated over the familiar outback of Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update on Monday indicated a slight rise in maximum temperatures over central and east India during the next three days up to which forecasts were available.

The US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) does not see the possibility of thundershowers unfolding over any part of this region during this phase but has made an allowance for the south.

Rain or thundershowers could break out over southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala as another easterly wave comes calling into the extreme Bay of Bengal around April 5 and proceeds to move west.

The resulting wet phase over the southwest coast and southern peninsula may last until April 14, though the showers would be sporadic and distributed far and wide.

FRESH WESTERLY

Meanwhile, an IMD update said on Monday that a fresh western disturbance has entered the northwest and was parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.

Isolated to scattered rain or snow is likely to occur over the western Himalayan region during the coming three days. IMD sees a follow-up system reporting in around Thursday.

Towards the east, westerlies have helped accentuate weather over east and northeast India.

The causative weather-making trough in the region ran down from Bihar to Orissa on Monday.

Strong winds prevailed over the Indo-Gangetic plains at the lower levels.

CLOUD IMAGERY

Moisture incursion over the northeastern States from the Bay of Bengal is expected to continue for another five days.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of low-to-medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, the northeastern States, peninsular India, south Bay of Bengal and southeast Arabian Sea.

Forecast until Thursday spoke about the possibility of scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied by isolated thunder squalls over the northeastern States.

Extended outlook until Saturday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied by isolated thunder squalls are likely over the northeastern States. Isolated rain or thundershowers have also been forecast over south Tamil Nadu, Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Heat wave conditions have prevailed over many parts of west Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, parts of Bihar and isolated pockets of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa during the past 24 hours ending Monday morning.

A warning issued by IMD said that heat wave conditions may continue to hold over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, isolated pockets of northeast Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and interior Orissa during the next 24 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thunder squalls may occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during the next two days.
Today afternoon Thunder showers expected over Orissa, North-east Andhra, western Ghats and South Kerala.
Sat. shows that the Western Disturbance is getting weak over Jammu & Kashmir .. http://ping.fm/hViUk
Chennai - Is HOT and some what DRY day today. Temp. now 11:38am is 35.2°C and rising.
Sat. shows a clear India with good showers over North-east states .. http://ping.fm/WwbAf

Monday, March 29, 2010

West srilanka, Gulf of mannar and Orissa are also active with thunder storms at 6pm... http://yfrog.com/iz6kij ... Summer showers started.
At 6pm, Entire western ghats from Karnataka to central Kerala are active with thunder storms .. http://yfrog.com/iz6kij
http://ping.fm/JBdLQ ... sat shot shows Entire western Srilankan is under a spell of heavy showers.
3:30pm, more thunder cells over Orissa, Maharastra, Coastal Karnataka and South-west kerala.. http://ping.fm/kp4Cc
Big corporate houses are rushing to private weather forecasters for monsoon projections ... http://bit.ly/bTx7qS
Pvt weathermen flooded with deals as cos plan for next year ... http://bit.ly/bTx7qS
Bay Cyclone in May-2010..??? ... http://bit.ly/bsAvyO

Bay Cyclone in May-2010..???

Usually during pre-monsoon season there used to be a low or cyclonic circulation over Bay especially during the month of May. Now it is all most April and winds are in transition stage. During this time generally the upper level westerlies [the steering wind] always tend to drag system towards East. However the weather associated with the system when traversing the TN coast will give rainfall.
As some one told that in the western Pacific between Indonesia and west South American coast,the SST anomaly is positive. With this predictor one can not say about 2010 SW monsoon. However with this trend cycirs developed in Indian Ocean near Indonesia may be carried along the easterlies and may bring system in the Bay. [This is my presumption]

Posted by Mr. Anonymous

But last year 2009 may we had a cyclonic low pressure "Ailya" which originated from souther Indian ocean. We all anticipated it will cross Tamil Nadu bringing precious water to always water starved state. Instead cyclone crossed Calcutta/Bangladesh.
Any hope of low pressure this year for TamilNadu?

Posted by "SSET"
Chennai - Now 3:23pm, temp is stable at 33.2°C... with good breeze from Sea.
At 2:30pm we already have Thunder cells over Orissa.. and south Kerala getting ready to host one .. http://ping.fm/h0Pks
Report:: Earth Hour 2010 ... http://bit.ly/djXwaR
earthhour -- Lights Off Across Canada For Earth Hour... http://bit.ly/btJDXN
Monsoons Spread Asian Pollution Around the World ... http://bit.ly/9cF8RX
Asia pollution circles the globe in stratosphere: study ... http://bit.ly/aPFBcQ
Mumbai won't witness tides above 5m this monsoon .. http://bit.ly/cQHf6G
Thirsty Elephants in India ... http://bit.ly/cMTNrp
Radar to predict weather in place by monsoon, hopes IMD ... http://bit.ly/9tx6PH
Mumbai municipal corp. gets ready for pre-monsoon drive .. http://bit.ly/aL5q1f
Slight rise in maximum temperatures predicted over central and adjoining peninsular India during next 2-3 days
Heat wave conditions may continue over south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and interior Orissa.
On 28-Mar, maximum temperature of 42.4°c was recorded at Jharsuguda (Orissa).
http://yfrog.com/6fbxej ... Sat. shows Early morning Thunder showers for South Tamilnadu coast and over North-east states.
Sat. shot at 11am shows, a Western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir .. http://yfrog.com/6fbxej
Chennai - now 11:43am it more sultry than yesterday and having scattered low cloud formation.
Chennai - Touched a max of 36.1°C (11:12am).. and today also having good stiff breeze from South East.. this'll cool things off.
RT @Shweta_Gigras: Chennai is getting hotter day by day :-S

Sunday, March 28, 2010

Early & Good South-west Monsoon predicted for Kerala & West Tamilnadu

EL Nino Southern Oscillation [ENSO] is an indicator of Indian summer Monsoon Rainfall 2010. On observing the general weather conditions prevailing in Tamilnadu, one has to presume that this time too SW monsoon in earlier May & June will be active over TN. Nor the Bay branch of the monsoon current will be prominent during onset at Kanyakumari (and) district or felt prominent just prior to on set. My colleagues working in TN Forest department expressed that the migration of wild animals like Panther and elephants into Eastern slopes of western ghats is an indicator that TN will get relatively more rainfall during 2010 early SW monsoon period. They further quoted that even reptiles have migrated down slope fearing big forest fires in the upper reaches of western ghat in Theni & Coimbatore districts. [owing to descending air from High pressure. We will hope and optimistic that rain God will be favorable for TN during 2010 SWM period.

Posted by Mr. Anonymous
Some of these Nor'wester storms reach tornadic violence and cause considerable damage to property
Nor'wester is always associated with a violent thunderstorm
What is ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' ?? They occur mostly during the transition period from winter... http://bit.ly/akLZaN
From monday the N-westerly would in effect trigger the full-fledged onset of ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' in the region
Rains would become more widespread from Monday as a fresh western disturbance parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir.
North-eastern States have started getting seasonal showers as prevailing westerlies and a heated-up land combined to breed thunderstorms
Chennai - Temp. now 10:47am is already 34.3°C.. it'll touch a max of 36 before the Sea breeze from East sets in.
Isolated rain/thundershowers would occur over Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, Lakshadweep, Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C over east India during next 1-2 days.
Fall in maximum temperatures by 2-3°C over east India during next 1-2 days.
A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect western Himalayan region from tommorrow.
western disturbance over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away northeastwards
On 27-Mar, maximum temperature of 42.0°C and above are recorded at following stations: Varanasi-42.4, Daltonganj-42.3 and Akola-42.0°C

Fresh westerly may breed more thunderstorms over east

The north-eastern States have started getting seasonal showers as prevailing westerlies and a heated-up land combined to breed thunderstorms over the region.

An India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said that the 24 hours ending Friday morning saw rainfall of varying intensity over Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh.

MORE WIDESPREAD

The rains would become more widespread from Monday as a fresh western disturbance parked over north Pakistan and adjoining Jammu and Kashmir moves into the region.

This would in effect trigger the full-fledged onset of ‘Nor'westers' or ‘Kal Baisakhi' in the region. These storms usually approach a station from the northwest (and hence called the name) bursting forth suddenly with great fury.

They occur mostly during the transition period from winter to the rainy season when two different air masses, west to northwest winds of land origin and moist winds from the Bay of Bengal, set up a rendezvous over the region. The storms are more frequent in the late afternoon, although known to occur also at other times of the day.

DAMAGE POTENTIAL

A Nor'wester is always associated with a thundershower, and the precursory signs of its approach are the same as those of a violent thunderstorm. Some of these storms reach tornadic violence and cause considerable damage to property and sometimes even loss of life.

The region is already witnessing moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal. The western disturbance itself is likely to affect the west Himalayan over the next five days. The moisture incursion would continue for as many days, the IMD said.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, east and adjoining central India, the Northeastern States and south Bay of Bengal.

Meanwhile, an agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said that rise in mercury could test the health of the wheat crop. The crop has reached grain formation stage in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Madhya Pradesh where temperature has crossed the 36 deg Celsius-mark.

IRRIGATION NEEDED

Other standing crops in the region too are susceptible to impact in this manner, which calls for light and frequent irrigation, the advisory said. In view of prevailing dry weather condition along with persisting high temperatures, farmers in Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, interior Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal are advised to apply light and frequent irrigation to the crops to meet excess evaporative demands.


The IMD said in its weather update on Friday that heat wave conditions were prevailing over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and isolated pockets of Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Orissa and Himachal Pradesh.

The highest maximum temperature of 42.7 deg Celsius was recorded at Daltonganj Jharkhand during the last 24 hours ending in the morning.

Maximum temperatures were at 40 deg Celsius or above over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Orissa, Telengana and interior Maharashtra.

Forecast for the next two days said that isolated rain or thundershowers accompanied by thundersquall may occur over Orissa and Chhattisgarh as well. Isolated heavy rainfall accompanied by thundersquall may also occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during this period. Isolated to scattered rain or snow would occur over the west Himalayan region. Heat wave conditions may continue over southeast Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar over the next 24hours.
http://ping.fm/0csWT ... South extreme Tamilnadu and Kerala is having clear start to the Day and this will change after 2 pm.
RT @flsblog: What is Earth Hour India 2010? What things to do during Earth Hour - Read full news at http://ping.fm/dheBb
North-east states getting very heavy showers overnight into Morning of today .. http://ping.fm/iFAGZ

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Chennai - A warm evening 31.2°C with good breeze from Sea (east)
http://ping.fm/pNGme ... Goin to be a Thundery night for South Tamilnadu.
Massive thunder storms over Gulf of Mannar and inching towards South Tamilnadu coast now 8:01pm.. http://ping.fm/3Pxq4
While Adilabad again records the highest maximum temperature of 43 degree Celsius in South India
Cloud burst over south Kerala on 26-Mar .. Thiruvananthapuram 18, Kayamkulam (Alapuzha dt) 12, Cherthala and Haripad (both Alapuzha dt) 8 CM
earthhour .. India should participate in this cause. Lets switch OFF every electrical appliances at 8:30 PM TODAY for 1hr (30 min from now)
India should take part in today's earthhour organized by WWF .. http://ping.fm/LHniA
Earth Hour started in 2007 in Sydney, Australia when 2.2 million homes and businesses turned their lights off for one hour.
Heavy moisture can be seen over south Tamilnadu and Kerala and South-west Bay .. http://ping.fm/EyqhT
On 26-Mar, Minimum temperatures are below normal by 2-3°C over Kerala
Heat wave conditions may continue over parts of Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh and Bihar during next 24 hours
On 26-Mar, High temp. recorded are Gaya and Varanasi: 42.1°C each, Jhansi and Bali: 42.0 °C each
On 26-Mar, As expected Heavy showers for North-East and south Tamilnadu and South Kerala ... http://yfrog.com/1xk4pg
Tamilnadu & Kerala are going to be cloudy with high chance of thunder showers till wednesday (31-Mar) ... http://yfrog.com/0spzzj .
Latest sat. shows, already HUGE thunder cells over south-central and south-west Bay .. http://yfrog.com/0spzzj ...along East srilanka coast
Nagercoil - Kanyakumari district got 2 rounds of thunder showers yesterday.(26-Mar).
Afternoon showers for south Tamilnadu will continue till mid of next week.
Good easterly moisture has started seeping into south and south-east Tamilnadu... Some heavy thunder showers expected over this region.
Chennai - Some moisture is creeping into North Tamilnadu coast as well.. This may spark some afternoon thunder showers.
Chennai - today it's HOT and crossed 35 deg... 35.3°C (11:12am)

Friday, March 26, 2010

Experimental six-month outlook covering June-July-August for India .. http://bit.ly/cMCDq5
Experimental six-month outlook covering June-July-August suggested Bay of Bengal arm is seen driving the proceedings with likely excess rain
Experimental six-month outlook covering June-July-August suggested normal rainfall for the central, north and northwest India
South Korea - APEC Climate Centre has come out with its seasonal forecasts for April-May-June suggesting normal rains for southwest coast
East and North-east India to get hotter in coming days .. http://bit.ly/cMCDq5
Himachal hotter than usual ... http://bit.ly/bMYJ42
World’s Hottest Chili Used by Indian Military ... http://bit.ly/bMaU1e

Heat wave conditions break into West Bengal

Moisture incursion is taking place in the northeast while heat wave conditions have penetrated east India into West Bengal next door during the 24 hours ending Thursday morning.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall for the Northeastern States in its outlook valid until Sunday.

This would formally signal the Nor'westers into action – seasonal thunderstorms triggered as cooler westerlies run into moisture-laden easterlies from the Bay of Bengal over a heated-up land. A seasonal trough has already been thrown up in the east, which would help rear the thunderstorms and host them for days together. Adding to this explosive mix is a western disturbance bracing to enter the northwest and progressively into east India facilitating moisture incursion from the Bay for the next five days. In the south, conditions are becoming favourable for the arrival of an easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal, which is expected to bring thundershowers to southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala.

EAST HOTTER

Meanwhile, heat wave conditions broke into the eastern corridor, with Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh having been brought under their spell. The highest maximum temperature of 43.1 deg Celsius during the last 24 hours was recorded at Bankura in West Bengal, the IMD update said. Heat wave conditions also prevailed over some parts of south Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of north Rajasthan, interior Orissa and Vidarbha.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of low and medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, north Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, the Northeastern States and south Bay of Bengal.

Isolated rain and snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir from Friday onwards. Outlook until Tuesday spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall over the northeast.

KOREAN FORECAST

Heat wave conditions are expected to prevail over parts of north Madhya Pradesh and south Uttar Pradesh during next 24 hours and abate thereafter. However, they may continue to hold over parts of Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, interior Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal during the next two days.

The Busan, South Korea-based APEC Climate Centre (APCC) has come out with its seasonal forecasts for April-May-June suggesting normal rains for the southwest coast and adjoining extreme south peninsula. But the west coast is shown to project a deficit, as will central and southwest Maharashtra and coastal Karnataka. The rest of the peninsula, including coastal Andhra Pradesh to the east, would largely see normal rains during these three months.

6-MONTH OUTLOOK

The experimental six-month outlook covering June-July-August suggested normal to just less than normal rainfall for the central, north and northwest of the country, which is at variance with forecasts made by other agencies until now.



The Bay of Bengal arm is seen driving the proceedings with likely excess rains for the southeastern coast and interior peninsula, the APCC outlook said. During the 2009 monsoon season, seasonal forecast by APCC showing critical deficits for June-July was right on target
Heavy thunder showers forecast from 28-mar, for south Tamilnadu and Kerala as good Easterly approaches .. http://yfrog.com/cc4p2g
On 25-Mar, Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 43 degree Celsius in SOuth India
World:: Winter's Temperature Extremes--Where, How Much ?? ... http://bit.ly/aqlQgH
Isolated thundersquall may occur over Orissa , Chhattisgarh, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya during next 48 hours
Heat wave conditions may continue over southeast Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Bihar during next 24hours.
Maximum temperatures are 40°C or above over parts of south Uttar Pradesh, northeast Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa.
On 25-mar, North-east states got some showers, Gangtok-4, Northlakhimpur-4, Itanagar, Dhubri-3each, Pasighat, Dibrugarh-1each.
On 25-Mar, highest maximum temperature of 42.7°C was recorded at Daltonganj (Jharkhand)
Chennai - Today also getting good stiff breeze from south-east.
Chennai - Today feels like above 38 deg... actually touched a max of.. 34.6°C (12:19pm)
http://yfrog.com/1aqkfj ... Medium high clouds also seen over Orissa,, Chatisgarh and Jharkand.
http://yfrog.com/1aqkfj ... today most of South Tamilnadu is having good LOW and MEdium high cloud formation.
Already we have thunder cells just offshore south Tamilnadu and over Srilanka .. http://yfrog.com/1aqkfj
Sat. shot shows lots of thunder cells over South-Central Bay .. http://yfrog.com/1aqkfj ... signs of good easterly moving towards Tamilnadu

Thursday, March 25, 2010

Tropical Cyclone Imani

Tropical Cyclone Imani swirled over the Southern Indian Ocean on March 24, 2010. The same day, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that the storm had maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (100 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 70 knots (130 kilometers per hour). The storm was located roughly 745 nautical miles (1,380 kilometers) west-southwest of Cocos Island, having traveled toward the south-southwest for several hours.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite captured this natural-color image of the storm on March 24, 2010. Imani spans several hundred kilometers over the Southern Indian Ocean, producing thin, radial clouds on its northern margin. The storm occurs far from any major landmass.
The JTWC forecast that Imani would continue traveling toward the south-southwest until reaching mid-latitude. The storm was expected to eventually turn southward and weaken.

Monsoon may lack usual June fizz over west coast

The onset phase of the southwest monsoon later this year might throw up normal to just-less-than-normal rainfall along the west coast due to a combination of adverse factors.

According to Dr Jing-Jia Luo, Senior Scientist with the Tokyo-based Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), monsoonal rains over India would be driven mostly by moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal this year.

QUIETER ARABIAN SEA

The moisture-laden easterlies would be steered in this manner by an anti-cyclone sitting in the higher levels of the atmosphere.

The winds are shown to curve to the northwest from the plains of Tamil Nadu bringing excess rain to this region.

In comparison, the Arabian Sea arm that sets up the onset along the southwest coast, is shown to be weak and less productive.

This trend may last for the entire June, Dr Jing-Jia said in a communication to Business Line.

But he maintained the overall ‘normal' outlook for monsoon, largely underwritten by a brewing La Nina, the monsoon-friendly alter ego of El Nino, towards August.

Forecasts for July-August-September made by the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society corroborate this outlook.

IRI sees excess rains over the west coast, peninsular India and parts of north and northwest India during this phase.

NO IOD PROP?

Updated seasonal forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) join the RIGC in predicting the possibility of Bay of Bengal getting into hyper activity, especially in June.

Significantly, Dr Jing-Jia also said RIGC has withdrawn the outlook for a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another monsoon-enabler, from September onwards.

The warming anomaly in the Indian Ocean is instead shown to shift to the east, which takes away an additional prop for the monsoon.

Meanwhile on Wednesday, a warning issued by India Meteorological Department (IMD) and valid for the next 24 hours said heat wave conditions would prevail over parts of Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and interior Orissa.

Isolated thundersquall is likely to occur over Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya during next two days in what is a prelude to the unfolding of the seasonal convective activity and thundershowers (Nor'westers or Kal Baisakhi) by Sunday.


This would happen as an incoming western disturbance on Thursday wades its way into east and northeast India. A preceding westerly system passing through the region has already thrown open a north-south trough from sub-Himalayan West Bengal to north Bay of Bengal. It persisted on Wednesday, facilitating moisture incursion.

Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions have been prevailing over many parts of Rajasthan, south Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, some parts of Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of Haryana, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh. Heat wave conditions prevailed also over some parts of Vidarbha, interior Orissa and isolated pockets of Telangana and West Bengal.

The highest maximum temperature of 43.9 deg Celsius was recorded at Chandrapur in Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.

Satellite imagery showed convective (rain-generating) clouds over Arunachal Pradesh and low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura and south Andaman Sea.

Forecast until Saturday spoke about the possibility of scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall over the Northeastern States during the next three days.

Forecast until Monday said fairly widespread rain to thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall are likely over the North-Eastern States. Scattered rain or snow may occur over Jammu and Kashmir while it would be isolated over Himachal Pradesh.
Good thunder storms expected from Sunday over South Tamilnadu and south Kerala .. http://yfrog.com/bfrncp
GFS predicts a good easterly wave will touch south-coastal Tamilnadu from Monday, 29-Mar.. http://yfrog.com/bfrncp
Latest sat. shows .. VERY heavy cloud formation over South-East Bay ... and fresh thunder cell over Srilanka.. http://ping.fm/pfAcT
IMD: "World Meteorological Day, 23-Mar-2010" .. http://ping.fm/RgT6c
latest MAx. temp chart shows that the HEAT wave has moved across into Bihar, Chatisgarh, W.B and U.P... http://yfrog.com/7d9z1g
Due to moisture incursion, Isolated thundersquall may occur over Arunachal Pradesh and Assam & Meghalaya during next 48 hours
On 24-Mar, Highest maximum temperature of 43.1°C. was recorded at Bankura (West Bengal).
Heat wave conditions prevailed over some parts of south Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Gengetic West Bengal, Bihar.
Sat. shot shows some cloud cover over North India, with some mild showers .. http://yfrog.com/evg2hj

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

Chennai - Touches another moderate max temperature of 33.4°C (11:47am) only.
Chennai - Touches another moderate max temperature of 33.4°C (11:47am) only.
Chennai - Touches another moderate max temperature of 33.4°C (11:47am) only.
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/9KSid
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/D8k3a
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/ZiaM6
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/13tqC
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/xDiJp
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/dO8rE
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/45If6
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope of a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/7Ybix
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/ga8eI
Lots of thunder storms visible over south-East and South Bay.. raising hope a good easterly wave next week.. http://ping.fm/o8TZL
Min.temp are above normal by 4-8 C over many parts of northwest India, Central India, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh,Sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
Min.temp are above normal by 4-8 C over many parts of northwest India, Central India, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh,Sub-Himalayan West Bengal.
Easterly wave will impact the south peninsula for three days from March 28 to 30, will produce electric showers for South TN and S. Kerala.
Easterly wave will impact the south peninsula for three days from March 28 to 30, will produce electric showers for South TN and S. Kerala.
"time for pre-monsoon convective activity to begin" ... http://bit.ly/doytpt
Emerging weather pattern would be set into motion by a westerly system entering the NW india on 25-Mar.This would help cap the mercury level
Emerging weather pattern would be set into motion by a westerly system entering the region on 25-Mar. This would help cap the mercury level
Temp regime over northwest India until April 4 is like to have ‘significant favourable impact' on the harvest in the core wheat belt.
Temp regime over northwest India until April 4 is like to have ‘significant favourable impact' on the harvest in the core wheat belt
Temp regime over northwest India until April 4 is like to have ‘significant favourable impact' on the harvest in the core wheat belt
http://bit.ly/aIXori ... Severe Heat Wave Hits Orissa, India
http://bit.ly/aIXori ... Severe Heat Wave Hits Orissa, India
http://bit.ly/aIXori ... Severe Heat Wave Hits Orissa, India
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal.
Hill station of Shimla in Himachal Pradesh, recorded high temp of 25.7 deg C for this time of year. This is 8-10 degrees C above normal
Global warming claims a tiny island disputed by India and Bangladesh in the Bay of Bengal, scientists say. http://bit.ly/cW8B3I

Weather ‘behaves' as harvest nears in north-west

The temperature regime over northwest India until April 4 is like to have ‘significant favourable impact' on the standing crop and its harvest in the core wheat belt in northwest India.

This is being facilitated by a train of incoming weather-setting western disturbances from across the northwest border, according to Dr Akhilesh Gupta, leading operational forecaster and Adviser with the Department of Science Technology.

CAPPING MERCURY

Speaking to Business Line, he said the emerging weather pattern would be set into motion by a westerly system entering the region on Thursday. This would help cap the mercury level and bring it down from the current high of 38.5 deg Celsius over the wheat belt in Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh for three days until Sunday.

The eastward movement of the system over central and east India may not elicit a prompt response initially but the temperature maximum may come down by a degree of one or two deg Celsius subsequently.

The mercury would once again pick up over northwest India on Monday and Tuesday (March 29 and 30) ahead of the arrival of a follow-up next western disturbance, but only to fall from March 31 to April 4 as the cooling phase unfolds.

NO THUNDERSHOWERS

In this manner, any sustained heating of the core wheat belt, which is prejudicial to crop prospects, is ruled out during the early harvest phase as well. What is more, weather parameters also seem to negate the possibility of seasonal pre-monsoon showers interfering with harvest operations for at least the next seven to 10 days, Dr Gupta said.

This is the time for pre-monsoon convective activity to begin, which has both positive and negative implications for the temperature regime and agriculture prospects. Normally, the seasonal thunderstorms (called Nor'westers or Kal Baisakhi variously in local parlance) break out first over the northeast and propagate in phases to east India, central India and north India. According to Dr Gupta, the northeast would receive the first major thunderstorm with fairly widespread showers on Sunday (March 28).



Dynamical calculations based on convective available potential energy (Cape) values, which indicate ‘conditional atmospheric instability,' are shown to jump thrice as much during a three-day-period ending Tuesday (March 30).

This is indicative of the atmospheric buoyancy and vertical motion of air that sets up clouds. The Cape values are shown trebling from 1,000 joules/kg to 3,000 joules/kg on Tuesday, Dr Gupta said.

Towards the south, an easterly wave is likely to impact the southern peninsula for three days from March 28 to 30. This is expected to trigger thundershowers and rains over southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala.

Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said on Tuesday that maximum temperatures have fallen by 2-3 deg Celsius over most parts of Gujarat and some parts of Rajasthan during past 24 hours leading to abatement of heat wave conditions.

But severe heat wave to heat wave conditions prevailed over some other parts of Rajasthan and southwest Uttar Pradesh. Heat wave conditions also prevailed over many parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and over parts of southeast Uttar Pradesh, Orissa and isolated pockets of Telangana.

The ‘top heat' has shifted eastward from Gujarat to Wardha and Chanderpur in Maharashtra which recorded the day's maximum of 43.0 deg Celsius on Monday. Scattered thundershower activity has already occurred over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan west Bengal and Sikkim.

This could be attributed to the trough thrown open by the movement of a prevailing western disturbance on its way out to the east and out of the country. The north-south trough extended from Sub-Himalayan West Bengal to North Bay of Bengal and featured moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

A clear and HOT looking India at 14:30 .. http://yfrog.com/4vvjcj
Nagercoil - Yesterday evening had a mild shower.. Heavy showers also reported over other parts of kanyakumari district.
Chennai - Touched a moderate max temp. of 33.8°C (12:38pm).. now 3:09pm the temp. is going down with good stiff sea breeze from East.
Conditions are building up for the initiation of an easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal early next week .. http://bit.ly/8YmJRW
ECMWF shows the next Western disturbance system as ‘waving down' the intense heat ... http://bit.ly/8YmJRW
Maximum temperatures will RISE over parts of central and east India and Telangana during the next three days .. http://bit.ly/8YmJRW
Severe heat wave conditions over Rajasthan and parts of north-west Madhya Pradesh is pushing into Whear belt.. http://bit.ly/8YmJRW
Today is "World water day" .. Taking action for World Water Day .. http://bit.ly/bnujsV

Heat wave pushes into wheat belt fringes

Severe heat wave conditions over Rajasthan and parts of north-west Madhya Pradesh have pushed themselves into the fringes of the core wheat belt with south-west Uttar Pradesh feeling the heat during the 24 hours ending on Monday morning.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated a rise in maximum temperatures over parts of central and east India and Telangana during the next three days, leading to extension of heat wave conditions.

A warning valid for the next 24 hours said that heat wave conditions would continue to prevail over some parts of Gujarat.

Similar conditions are expected to continue over parts of Vidarbha, Madhya Pradesh, east Maharashtra, south-west Uttar Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana, interior Orissa and Jharkhand during the next two days.

There is no indication of any massive ‘denting' of the wheat belt going forward, if the IMD outlook for the next few days is anything to go by.

This is as much attributed to the presence of a western disturbance already over Jammu and Kashmir as to the expected arrival of follow-up system around Thursday (March 25), though with an initial round of incremental heating.

SMOOTH PASSAGE

The prevailing system is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir during the next two to three days. Satellite pictures showed low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over Jammu and Kashmir, and parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) sees the incoming western disturbance dipping low over south-west Rajasthan and north Gujarat by Thursday.

On two earlier occasions during last week, incoming westerlies were steered ‘round the J&K corner' by an intruding high-pressure region over West Asia.

They could swing back into position for a toehold over east India only from across the eastern Himalayas from where they had set up a weather-maker trough.

In the present instance, the system is ensured smooth passage into north-west India after the ‘blocking' high-pressure region receded into the background.

The system is expected to bring in moisture, cloudiness and some rain over the wheat belt and influence weather over northwest and east India for three days during the weekend.

In the process, ECMWF shows the system as ‘waving down' the intense heat, which would be pushed progressively into the south over east-central and adjoining central India.

NEXT SYSTEM

But from Monday next, the heating would once again pick up from east-central India and keep growing north-northwest into Rajasthan and adjoining north-west Madhya Pradesh until the arrival of the next western disturbance by April 1.


An IMD update said on Monday that heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and isolated pockets of interior Orissa, Jharkhand, south Chhattisgarh, Telangana and north Madhya Maharashtra during the 24 hours ending Monday morning.


Hot day conditions were prevailing over isolated pockets of coastal Andhra Pradesh as well during this period.

Maximum temperatures were above normal by five to as much as 10 deg Celsius over many parts of north-west, central and north-east India, Gujarat, sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

The highest maximum temperature of 43.4 {+0}C was recorded at Idar in Gujarat.

An IMD forecast until Thursday indicated the possibility of fairly widespread rain or snow over Jammu and Kashmir during the next 24 hours and scattered thereafter.

Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall have been forecast over parts of the north-eastern States.

Meanwhile in the south, conditions are building up for the initiation of an easterly wave from the Bay of Bengal. This is expected to bring scattered rains into southern Tamil Nadu and adjoining Kerala by early next week.

Monday, March 22, 2010

RT @AlertNet: Pedal-charged lights provide sustainable power http://bit.ly/b32DyQ
More thunder showers expected along South-west Kerala along western ghats.. http://yfrog.com/jbzwzp
Chennai’s current dry phase is 4th longest since 2000 .. http://bit.ly/aJcYcC
Chennai - Clear and HOT days (above 36 deg) coming up after coming weekend.
Chennai - Touched a moderate max. temp. of 34.5°C (11:11am)
On 21-Mar-10, highest maximum temperature of 43.4 C was recorded at Idar (Gujarat).
Sat. shows except Kashmir and Himachal all other places are CLEAR and HOT .. http://yfrog.com/j6ob7j
Nizamabad, Ramagundam and Bhadrachalam recorded the highest maximum temperature of 42 degree Celsius in South India on 21-Mar-10
RPT-UPDATE 1-India's 2010 monsoon rains seen normal-farm secy ... http://bit.ly/daEaTz
Mercury soars, U.P in grip of 'heat wave' ... http://bit.ly/bmhgaA
Disturbing climate changes in Kashmir .. http://bit.ly/cGQbk5
India to offer help on weather forecasting to Saarc countries ... http://bit.ly/csByYj
A hot day in store for Delhi ... http://bit.ly/8ZvYUj

Sunday, March 21, 2010

South Asia's monsoon to be forecast from Pune ... http://bit.ly/cPLyG8
Scattered to fairly widespread rain/thundershowers accompanied with isolated thundersquall over northeastern states and will increase.
Maximum temperature may fall by 1-20C over parts of Gujarat and West Rajasthan during next 48 hours.
Maximum temperatures are above normal by 5-90C over many parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh.
Yesterday till morning of 21-Mar, the WHOLE of India recorded almost NO trace of rain.
A western disturbance has started affecting Kashmir now ... http://yfrog.com/6tyf3j
Central and South Tamilnadu HIGH temperature is coming back to Normal.
Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 41 degree Celsius in south India on 19-Mar
Chennai - Touches a max of 35.3°C (1:03pm)... 1 deg less than yesterday's max of .. 36.4°C (10:57am)

Saturday, March 20, 2010

Better model convergence on normal monsoon outlook

The latest update from the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has retained the outlook of maximum probability for a normal monsoon for India this year.

The IRI also suggested that the season might end in a flourish during July-August-September with odds favouring surplus rain for west-central India and parts of north-west and east-coastal India.

POSITIVE IOD

This is a pattern identified with a favourable (positive) phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a miniature El Nino-La Nina combo enacted in the Indian Ocean.

The west Indian Ocean warms relative to the east during a positive IOD phase and vice-versa in a negative IOD.

A positive IOD is considered as supportive of a concurrent Indian monsoon. Dr Jing-Jia Luo and his team at the Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC) in Tokyo had earlier informed Business Line that it was possible that a weak positive IOD might be there for the asking towards September.

The RIGC had also observed that the current El Nino phase would fade out over the next few months to be followed by a possible La Nina.

A positive IOD and weak El Nino transitioning to La Nina are good signals for the Indian monsoon.

NCEP AGREES

A major highlight from the IRI forecast update was least probability of an otherwise usual but deadly heat wave stalking the east coast (Orissa and Andhra Pradesh) in the run-up to the monsoon.

Extended, though abstract, forecasts by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) from April-May-June to September-October-November too support the case for a largely normal monsoon for the country this year.

But, the NCEP has pointed to a persistent weather anomaly on the eastern coast of the country around Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal where rains are likely to be in deficit all through the season.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is expected to come out with a latest seasonal forecast update within the next few days, has, till now, suggested maximum probabilities for a normal monsoon.

NORTH-WEST PROSPECTS

The ECMWF has been more liberal in its outlook with monthly disaggregated rainfall surpluses at varying places falling within the monsoon print.

No model has yet indicated the possibility of a repeat of the severe rain deficit for northwest India.

Meanwhile, on Friday, a daily IMD update said that heat wave to severe heat wave conditions prevailed over many parts of Gujarat and isolated pockets of south-west Rajasthan and West Madhya Pradesh.

Maximum temperatures were above normal by 4 to 6 deg Celsius over Rajasthan, the western Himalayas, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and the north-eastern States. The highest maximum of 43.0 deg Celsius was recorded at Deesa in Gujarat.

HEAT WAVE

A further rise in maximum temperatures has been indicated over parts of northwest, west, central and east India during the next three days.

A warning issued by the IMD said that heat wave conditions would continue to prevail over parts of Gujarat and south Rajasthan during the next two days.

They may even extend into some parts of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, Telangana and interior Orissa thereafter. Generally clear skies and dry air are prevailing over northwest and central India ahead of the expected arrival of a fresh western disturbance over the western Himalayas.

LIGHT RAIN

The IMD has forecast scattered rain or snow over Jammu and Kashmir from Sunday. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over parts of the north-eastern States the same day before increasing thereafter. Isolated rain or thundershower has been forecast over Orissa during the next 24 hours.

An outlook until Wednesday suggested that scattered rain or snow would occur over Jammu and Kashmir while being isolated over Himachal Pradesh.

Scattered rain to thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squalls is likely over the north-eastern States during this phase.
Automatic weather stations in all districts within two years ... http://bit.ly/coXYr8
Orissa: 400 check dams before monsoon ... http://bit.ly/9TUCNj
Monsoon seen normal this year: Farm secy ... http://bit.ly/aVsfpR

Friday, March 19, 2010

Saving Earth Using direct sunlight instead of the washing machine .. http://bit.ly/a46J4X
Kerala records 268 dengue cases in 2010 ... http://bit.ly/bBriNg
Very HOT in Gujarat and South-west Rajasthan for the past 3 days .. http://yfrog.com/b1l5xg
Heat wave conditions would continue to prevail over many parts of Gujarat and south Rajasthan.
IMD:: Generally dry air is prevailing over northwest and central India
Minimum temperatures are above normal by 4-80C over many parts of northwest and central India, Gujarat and north Konkan
Today afternoon it's HOT and DRY over most of India .. http://ping.fm/fYDyz
RT @AlertNet: China says severe drought across a large swathe of southwest affecting more than 50 mln http://ow.ly/1oo0J

Thursday, March 18, 2010

A fresh western disturbance may affect Jammu & Kashmir region from 21st onwards
North-south trough runs from east Uttar Pradesh to south Orissa across Jharkhand at 0.9 Km above mean sea level ... this is creating Showers
Maximum temperatures above 40:: Barmer-42.6, Jodhpur 40.0, Deesa-41.0, Idar-42.0, Gandhinagar-41.5, Bhuj-41.0, Rajkot-40.5 and Baroda-40.10C
Minimum temperature are above normal by 4-80C over many parts of northwest, adjoining central India and Gujarat
Scattered Heavy showers in Orissa on 17-Mar .. http://yfrog.com/7fsg4g
Today also some showers continue over Chatisgarh, Orissa and North Andhra.. http://yfrog.com/anr7jj
Chennai - Clear skies with temperature around 34 deg is predicted for next 3 days.
Maximum temperature fell at one or two places over Telangana, south Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Tamil Nadu on 17-Mar
Chennai - Morning also NOT warm .. 23.7°C (6:35am) .. this temp. is COOL as compared to other places in Tamilnadu and SOuth India.
Chennai - Today also just touched a NOT so HOT max temperature of .. 33.1°C (11:19am)

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Cyclone Twins: Tropical Cyclones Tomas and Ului ... http://bit.ly/ctt7pV
Rainfall till morning of 17-Mar, Channagiri (Davangere dt) 4, Subramanya (Dakshina Kannada dt), Irinjalakkuda (Thrissur dt),Haripad (Alapuzh
Tamilnadu hot very hot .. Karurparamathi recorded the highest maximum temperature of 41 degree Celsius
Chennai - How HOT was it today ?? 33.8°C (11:54am)... not much heat as compared to other parts of South India.
Isolated thundersquall may occur over Orissa and West Bengal during next 48 hours.
A fresh western disturbance likely to affect western Himalayan regions from 21st onwards.
Isolated rain/ thundershowers may occur over north coastal Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and parts of extreme south Peninsular India.
Heat wave to severe heat wave conditions have developed over isolated pockets of west Rajasthan and north Gujarat region
North and North-west India getting HOT .. Jaisalmer-40.5, Barmar-41.6, Chitorgarh-40.0, Rajkot-40.3, Shajapur-40.7, Akola-40.3 Deg C.

Cyclone Twins: Tropical Cyclones Tomas and Ului


Two fierce tropical cyclones raged over the South Pacific Ocean in mid-March 2010, the U.S. Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported. Over the Solomon Islands, Tropical Cyclone Ului had maximum sustained winds of 130 knots (240 kilometers per hour, 150 miles per hour) and gusts up to 160 knots (300 km/hr, 180 mph). Over Fiji, Tropical Cyclone Tomas had maximum sustained winds of 115 knots (215 km/hr, 132 mph) and gusts up to 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph).
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites captured both storms in multiple passes over the South Pacific on March 15, 2010, local time. The majority of the image is from the morning of March 15 (late March 14, UTC time) as seen by MODIS on the Terra satellite, with the right portion of the image having been acquired earliest. The wedge-shaped area right of center is from Aqua MODIS, and it was taken in the early afternoon of March 15 (local time).
Although it packs less powerful winds, according to the JTWC, Tomas stretches across a larger area. It was moving over the northern Fiji islands when Terra MODIS captured the right portion of the image. According to early reports, Tomas forced more than 5,000 people from their homes while the islands sustained damage to crops and buildings.
The JTWC reported that Tomas had traveled slowly toward the south and was passing over an area of high sea surface temperatures. (Warm seas provide energy for cyclones.) This storm was expected to intensify before transitioning to an extratropical storm.
Ului is more compact and more powerful. A few hours before this image was taken, the storm had been an extremely dangerous Category 5 cyclone with sustained winds of 140 knots (260 km/hr, 160 mph). Ului degraded slightly before dealing the southern Solomon Islands a glancing blow. Initial news reports say that homes were damaged on the islands, but no one was injured.
Like Tomas, Ului had been moving westward over an area of high sea surface temperatures. This storm was expected to continue moving westward before turning south and eventually weakening.

Pakistan Mud Volcanoes


Along the coast of Pakistan, the tectonic plate underlying the Arabian Sea is diving beneath the Eurasian continent. This process—subduction—typically creates volcanoes, but the volcanoes that rise from this arid landscape are not the typical kind. Instead of lava, ash, and sulfur dioxide, these volcanoes spew mud and methane. On rare occasions, the gas plumes spontaneously ignite, shooting flames high into the sky.
This natural-color image shows the most dramatic group of mud volcanoes in the area, known as the Changradup Complex. The tallest volcano, Changradup I, is about 100 meters (330 feet) high, and it has a 15-meter- (49-foot-) diameter mud lake in its crater that periodically overflows. Some of these overflows have darkened the northwestern flanks. A second crater emerges from the southern flanks of Changradup, but it is not currently active.
The 45-meter (150-foot) Chandragup II lies northeast of the taller cone, and its crater is filled by a mud lake with a figure-8 shape, probably the result of twin volcanoes whose craters collapsed into each other over time. To the northwest of Changradup I, the eroded rim of an extinct mud volcano is visible; its eastern rim is more noticeable than its western rim.
Heavy showers over south-west Kerala on 16-Mar .. http://yfrog.com/69wbpg
Here's the rainfall map recorded till 8:30am of 17-Mar .. http://yfrog.com/69wbpg
Showers also seen over Karnataka and N-E Andhra .. http://ping.fm/8rdlk
Heavy afternoon showers over N-E Orissa, west-west-bengal and Jharkand... http://ping.fm/VYhsI
Orissa tragedy: Once displaced, now suicidal ... http://bit.ly/cFQ39X
RT @AlertNet: Farming in Kenya feels like gambling, but insurance helps cut risks http://bit.ly/9kRVtv
http://bit.ly/bFtpR8 ... Northeast Asia May Get Above-Average Rainfall in Monsoon Season

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

‘Rogue' trough to shield wheat from heat

A ‘law-breaking' but weather-making trough is forecast to descend on east India and extend into east-central and north peninsular India over the next few days.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has joined the outlook for a passing western disturbance to trigger the formation of the trough extending from Bihar to Rayalaseema with an embedded cyclonic circulation.

WHEAT SHIELD

Model forecasts still suggest that the core wheat belt over northwest India (Punjab, Haryana and west Uttar Pradesh) would be shielded from the heat by the western disturbance and the strong north-westerly-to-westerly flows.

Formation of a cyclonic circulation over east India from passing westerlies is not a regular occurrence during this time of the year – these are known to materialise over Rajasthan-Punjab-Haryana region.

But an advancing high-pressure region from West Asia, with pretensions of being a ‘blocking high' (which literally blocks inbound westerlies on their path), is causing the western disturbance to take a detour and execute a ‘reverse kick' from over the eastern Himalayas.

The net result is that the cyclonic circulation, with an enveloping trough, will get lobbed into East India (over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh). IMD says this is expected to happen over the next two days, which is in agreement with the outlook of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

The cyclonic circulation-trough combo will in turn trigger moisture incursion from the Bay of Bengal, prompting the formation of thunderstorms and squalls. Wind confluence of westerly and easterly flows is expected to add to the unstable weather conditions over north peninsular India.

The IMD has warned of isolated thundersquall over Orissa, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh during the next two days. Strong northwesterly to westerly winds are prevailing over Indo-Gangetic plains in the lower levels.


Meanwhile, southern Pakistan and adjoining northwest India have been brought under a spell of sustained heating, which is expected to morph into an intense heating phase during the latter of the week.

The intense heating phase would see parts of Gujarat, west Madhya Pradesh, southern Gujarat and adjoining west Maharashtra being variously brought under its footprint.

The core of the heat is shown by ECMWF as sitting smack over Madhya Pradesh beyond March 20, before extending into Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and north coastal Andhra Pradesh.

This found ready acceptance with the IMD, which says that the maximum temperatures are expected to rise by 2-3 deg Celsius over parts of northwest and central India during next three days.

An IMD update on Monday said that the highest overnight maximum temperature of 40.7°C was recorded at Barmer in Rajasthan. Maximum temperatures of above 40 deg Celsius have been recorded also at isolated pockets over Rajasthan, Gujarat, Vidarbha and Telengana during this period.

An IMD outlook said that isolated light rain to thundershowers may occur over parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over parts of the north-eastern States during the next three days. Isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of east India during the next two days.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly clouded conditions) over parts of western Himalayan regions, Punjab, Maharashtra, Orissa, peninsular and northeast India, the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea.
Isolated thundersquall may occur over Orissa, West Bengal and north Andhra Pradesh on 17th and 18th
cyclonic circulation likely over Orissa and adjoining Chhattisgarh in lower levels on 16th with moisture incursion from Bay of Bengal.
Super HOT on 15-Mar-10,,, Barmer-40.6, Chandrapur-40.5, Bramhapuri-40.3 and Tirupathi-40.4
Chennai - Yesterday touched a super max temperature of 36.2°C (11:41am)... Today also temp. is on rise now (9:21am)
Chennai - a very warm morning.. 27.8°C (6:18am)
http://yfrog.com/0ckpsg ... On 14-Mar, showers over south-west Bengal and area bordering Orissa.
On 14-Mar, Isolated light rain occurred over Telangana .. http://yfrog.com/0ckpsg
On 14-Mar, Nizamabad and Adilabad recorded the highest maximum temperature of 40 degree Celsius in south India
For the past 24hrs, Unusual looking band of cloud movement over central peninsula from west to east .. http://ping.fm/v2pIY

Saturday, March 13, 2010

A number of stations recorded the highest maximum temperature of 39 degree Celsius in South India on 12-Mar-10
Chennai - So far chennai has escaped the SOuth Indian Heat prevailing for the past 1 week.
Isolated light rain would occur over parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next 24 hrs
Heat wave conditions likely to develop over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during next 2- 3 days.
Heat wave conditions likely to develop over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat during next 2- 3 days.
IMD: Wind confluence occurring over Telangana and adjoining areas.
Maximum temperatures are above normal by 3-6°C over parts of Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana.
Around Evening, Mild shower activity over South-west Kerela and over west Tirunelveli district of Tamilnadu .. http://yfrog.com/bfi7sj
Around evening Heavy thunder shower near Mouth of Gulf-Mannar and near to coast of Colombo .. http://yfrog.com/bfi7sj
Thru the day Band of Showers pushing inland from Arabian sea .. http://yfrog.com/bfi7sj
Today: Mild showers along Coastal and North Karnataka .. http://yfrog.com/bfi7sj
Here's the India Rainfall map till 8:30 am, 13-Mar ... http://yfrog.com/j7b4mg
light rain/thundershowers would occur over parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next 24 hours
light rain/thundershowers would occur over parts of Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next 24 hours
Chennai - Getting good stiff breeze from EAST over sea, this will raise the humidity levels upto 80% around evening. Now its 60%
Chennai - Woke up to a warm morning and touched a high of 33.4°C (11:11am)
wind confluence over central and east-central India has given rise to possible thunder squalls over Chhattisgarh and Orissa in next 24 hrs
Rainfall on 11-Mar-10:: Cuttack-2, Keongjhargarh, Nagpur, Amravati, Wardha and Pachmarhi - 1 each
IMD assessed that chances of pest and disease incidence are high in the entire northwest, Maharashtra and Assam.. http://bit.ly/98LAKW
west coast and west-central India, including Mumbai-Konkan, south Gujarat and coastal Karnataka, would start heating up during the next week

Thunder squall threat to eastern, central parts

The wind confluence over central and east-central India has given rise to interesting weather pattern with India Meteorological Department (IMD) sounding an alert on possible thunder squalls over Chhattisgarh and Orissa during the next 24 hours.

Forecast for the next two days said isolated light rain to thundershowers would occur over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and parts of south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.

ISOLATED RAIN

Isolated rain or thundershowers has also been forecast over extreme south peninsular India and the Northeastern States during the next three days.

During the 24 hours ending Friday morning, scattered light to moderate rainfall has been reported over central India and Orissa helping douse the searing heat to some extent in the region.

The chief amounts of rainfall recorded during the period were (in cm); Cuttack-2, Keongjhargarh, Nagpur, Amravati, Wardha and Pachmarhi - 1 each. However, the IMD has said maximum temperatures would once again start building gradually over central and east India during the next two days.

WEST TO HEAT UP

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has maintained the view that the northern flank of the heating caravan is set to move to the west of the peninsula while keeping the southern flank pinned to the peninsular region reaching down to north Kerala.

This would mean that the west coast and west-central India, including Mumbai-Konkan, south Gujarat and coastal Karnataka, would start heating up during the next week.

A high-pressure area with hot sinking desert air building over West Asia and pushing towards extreme northwest India would only help entrench the heat.



The ECMWF has retained the outlook for a western disturbance barely making it past the advancing high-pressure region to lob a circulation back into east-central India.

This is despite it being forced to make a detour and march across the extreme north of the subcontinent. The cyclonic circulation is shown to linger around the region until March 20 before weakening, which would once again bring the ‘top heat' back to east-central India.

Meanwhile, a slight fall in minimum temperatures has been indicated over parts of northwest India during the next three days. Strong northwesterly to westerly winds would prevail over the Indo-Gangetic plains during this period.

Satellite imagery on Friday showed the presence of convective clouds over parts of central India. Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) were seen over parts of northwest and east India and Arunachal Pradesh.

The South Andaman Sea also has been witnessing some clouding over the past few days as part of a weak easterly wave. Clouds have also massed around over southeast Arabian Sea off Sri Lanka and Kerala.

On Thursday, maximum temperatures were above normal over many parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Rajasthan, Gujarat, the west coast, coastal Tamil Nadu and parts of Punjab, Haryana and Delhi.

An agro-met advisory issued by the IMD said farmers should apply need-based irrigation to standing crops since there has been no significant rain in most of the States during the last week. Nor is any significant rain likely to occur during next five days as well.

Given the favourable weather conditions, the IMD assessed that chances of pest and disease incidence are high in the entire northwest, Maharashtra and Assam

Friday, March 12, 2010

IPL-2010 starts with a patchy high cloud cover in Mumbai and with very less DEW around.
IPL-2010 starts with a patchy high cloud cover in Mumbai and with very less DEW around.
http://yfrog.com/iys7qj ... Coastal Orissa also received some mild showers today afternoon.
Good afternoon showers over North maharastra and into South M-P .. http://yfrog.com/iys7qj
Good afternoon showers over North maharastra and into South M-P .. http://yfrog.com/iys7qj
Chennai - is cool comparing to other parts of South India .. 33.3°C (1:45pm)
Palakkad in Kerala that recorded a sizzling 42 deg Celsius on 11-Mar-10.
Gradual rise in max temp. is being forecast over parts of north-west, central & east India during the next three days.. http://bit.ly/9RfK7s

Tropical Cyclone Hubert


Tropical Cyclone Hubert hovered over the Indian Ocean off the east coast of Madagascar on March 10, 2010. In a bulletin released the same day, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reported that Hubert was located roughly 160 nautical miles (300 kilometers) southeast of Antananarivo, Madagascar, with maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (65 kilometers per hour) and gusts up to 45 knots (85 kilometers per hour). The JTWC also reported, however, that the storm had begun to weaken and would continue to dissipate as it moved over land.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured this true-color image of Hubert on March 10, 2010. The storm lacks a distinct eye but nevertheless spans hundreds of kilometers, from the western shores of Madagascar past the island of RĂ©union.

Mercury seen up in next 3 days in eastern, central parts

A gradual rise in maximum temperatures is being forecast over parts of north-west, central and east India during the next three days, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said on Thursday.

The heating comes on the heels of a western disturbance leaving the region, taking away with it associated clouding and moisture.

The clear skies would allow the sun to beat the surface straight and hard.

The country's hottest place on Thursday was far removed from north-west India, in Palakkad in Kerala that recorded a sizzling 42 deg Celsius.

IMD does not have a monitoring station in Palakkad; the reading was recorded by the Integrated Rural Technology Centre (IRTC), a well-known NGO located in the rocky outback of Mundoor.

Palakkad city itself is learnt to have recorded a comparatively cooler 36 deg Celsius during the day.

Palakkad is vulnerable to heating extremes during this time of the year thanks to a barrage of hot easterlies from the dry plains across the border in Tamil Nadu, making their way through the Palakkad Gap.

Situated on the western side of the Gap, the Palakkad plains connect Kerala to the plains of Tamil Nadu and the Deccan.

This geographical location results in an environmental realm that is different from the rest of Kerala.

High-pressure area

The current phase of accelerated heating over the peninsula, including parts of Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, is being overseen by a stubborn high-pressure region extending from as far east as the west Pacific.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting maintained that the system may start withdrawing to the east from the weekend. This would cause the heating to migrate gradually to the west of the peninsula at the instance of a building region of high pressure over the West Asian deserts and advancing towards north-west India.

Meanwhile on Thursday, maximum temperatures over north-west India were 4 to 7 deg Celsius above normal in Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarkhand.

A fresh western disturbance is expected to affect Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.

No significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over north-west, central and east India during the next two days.

The incoming system should bring in moisture and cloudiness and help bring down the maximum temperatures later.

Isolated rain or snow has been forecast over Jammu and Kashmir on Friday and Saturday.


A gradual strengthening of the north-westerly to westerly winds too has been indicated over the Indo-Gangetic plains during the next four days. Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the Northeastern States during the next three days.

Satellite imagery on Thursday revealed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of the western Himalayan region, central and east India and the Andaman Sea.

Towards the immediate south and southeast, a confluence of winds held overnight on Thursday over Vidarbha and adjoining Telangana. This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and parts of south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during next three days. The outlook until Tuesday next suggest isolated to scattered rain or thundershowers over the Northeastern States. Isolated rain or thundershowers are also likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India, the IMD said.

Mercury crosses 41 degrees C-mark in A.P.

Sustained heating over east and east-central India has seen mercury level at isolated places in interior Andhra Pradesh breach the 40 degree Celsius-mark.

In fact, Anantapur, at 41.4 degree Celsius, was the hottest place in the country during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said.

LIKELY RESPITE

Model forecasts are of the view that the heating trend would largely hold over the region until the weekend (Saturday). Some respite could be had as the causative high-pressure area with sinking hot air extending right from the Pacific recedes to the Maritime continent (South-East Asia and beyond) early next week.

According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), the net effect would be that the maximum heating trend would slowly shift across the peninsula to the west where it would be anchored by another high-pressure region advancing from West Asia.

In fact, the Global Forecast System of the US Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Centre sees this high-pressure region proceeding to invade extreme northwest and north India by March 17.

Crucially enough, this is shown to happen after a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area gets lobbed into northwest India by westerlies, blowing around the advancing head of the high-pressure system.

Updated forecasts from the ECMWF see the ‘low' being pushed to east India by the advancing high-pressure region from West Asia. Over the past few days, it has been suggesting that the system might land up more to the west over central India.

WIND CONFLUENCE

Meanwhile, an IMD update on Wednesday said that confluence of winds from opposite directions would take place over north Maharashtra and adjoining Telangana during the next two days.

This is expected to cause isolated light rain or thundershowers over Maharashtra and parts of Madhya Pradesh, south Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh and Orissa during this period.

The prevailing feeble western disturbance over north Jammu and Kashmir and neighbourhood is moving away from north India. A fresh western disturbance is likely to affect the western Himalayan region during the next 24 hours. A gradual strengthening of winds is likely over the Indo-Gangetic plains.

Satellite imagery showed the presence of convective clouds capable of producing snow/rains over parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) were seen over parts of western Himalayan region, Punjab, peninsular India and north Andaman Sea.


During the past 24 hours, both maximum and minimum temperatures have risen by about 2 degree Celsius over many parts of northwest and central India. They were above normal by 4 – 7 degree Celsius also over western Himalaya region, thanks to the presence of moisture and clouding associated with the incoming western disturbance.

Isolated rain or snow is likely to occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours, the IMD said. Minimum and maximum temperatures over northwest, central and east India are expected to rise slightly during the next two days.

Outlook until Monday next spoke about the possibility of isolated rain or thundershowers over Andaman and Nicobar Islands and extreme south peninsular India. By this time, the prevailing high-pressure over the region would have receded to the east, according to the model forecasts.

Tuesday, March 09, 2010

Westerlies seen capping heat until March 20

International weather models are of the view that western disturbances would keep rolling in, one after the other, to extend their calming influence on weather over north-west India until March 20, if not beyond.

India Meteorological Department (IMD) said, in its outlook on Monday, that a “feeble western disturbance” may check into the region around Friday.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) seems to suggest that a weak system might already be impacting the region.

Strong system

This will be followed by a relatively stronger system by Wednesday/Thursday, which would be active for a day or two. Passage of the system to the east would let in strong north-westerly to westerly currents for the next few days.

According to the ECMWF, a much stronger system, an exceptionally strong one at that, might break into the region from March 16. The system is shown spinning up a low-pressure area the very next day, which could go on to become even a depression, over Rajasthan. This could potentially throw up the threats of heavy rains, high wind and hail to the standing wheat crop in the north-west.

On Monday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains, the IMD update said.

Minimum temperatures were above normal over many parts of Gujarat, east and central India, some parts of peninsular and northeast India and isolated pockets of East Rajasthan.

Maximum temperatures, too, were above normal over many parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and east, north-east and peninsular India.

Cloud imagery

Satellite imagery on Monday showed the presence of low to medium clouds (partly cloudy conditions) over parts of western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely to occur over parts of the north-eastern States during the next three days. A fall in minimum temperatures is expected over parts of northwest and adjoining central and east India.

A fall in maximum temperatures also is expected over parts of north-west and adjoining central and east India during this period.

Rains for south

Forecast until the weekend said that isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Arunachal Pradesh and extreme south peninsula. Isolated rain or snow would occur over western Himalayan region.


The trough or wind discontinuity from Orissa to south Tamil Nadu through interior Andhra Pradesh persisted on Monday. An outlook from the Chennai Regional Met Centre said that isolated rain or thundershowers may occur over Kerala and interior Tamil Nadu, over the next two days.

Monday, March 08, 2010

East India heats up even as north-west cools heels

Temperatures have been rising over the eastern parts of the country over the past few days, especially Assam, Andhra Pradesh, north Tamil Nadu, parts of the north-east and extreme south peninsular India.

The maximum temperatures have reached 40 deg Celsius over some parts of Andhra Pradesh and isolated pockets of Vidarbha, according to an update by India Meteorological Department (IMD).

FINE OVER NORTH-WEST

But the benign presence of western disturbances, one of which is affecting north-west India, has continued to shield the region and its standing wheat crop from the extreme weather (to within the 30 to 25 deg Celsius range).

The cloudiness associated with the systems has had a calming impact on ambient temperatures.

The next one in the series of western disturbances is expected to roll into the north-west over the next 24 hours, the IMD update said.

It has also joined international models in the outlook for yet another western disturbance, a moderately intense one, around mid-week.

Maximum temperatures

Maximum temperatures over north-west and adjoining east India are expected to fluctuate coinciding with the arrival and exit phases of the westerly systems.

While the moisture and associated cloudiness brought in by the incoming system tend to cap maximum temperature levels, its exit takes away the clouds leading to rise in the ambient temperature levels.

On Sunday, strong north-westerly to westerly winds were prevailing over parts of the Indo-Gangetic plains.

The strong winds are likely to prevail over the next 2-3 days as well, the IMD forecast said.

RAINS FORECAST

Similarly, the prevailing western disturbance is likely to continue to affect the western Himalayan region on Monday too.

Satellite imagery showed low to medium clouds over western Himalayan region and the north-eastern States.

Isolated rain or snow has been forecast for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 24 hours.

Scattered rain or thundershowers are likely over parts of the north-eastern States during the next two days.

minimum temperatures

While a fall in minimum temperatures is seen over north-west and adjoining central and east India during the next three days, a rise in maximum temperatures is forecast over north-west and adjoining central and east India.

Meanwhile, international models indicated a trend in which east and peninsular India would witness sustained heating in the medium term.

This is forecast to start propagating to the west and north-west in phases.

The International Research Institute (IRI) at Columbia University and the European Centre for Medium-Term Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are in agreement with this outlook.

‘OPEN HEARTH'

Seasonal forecast by the IRI for the summer months seems to pack a pleasant surprise for east India in as much as it sees only low probability of a deadly heat wave stalking the traditional backyard encompassing Orissa, coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining Vidarbha.

‘Open hearth' conditions might shift elsewhere, with the highest probability for significant above-normal heating being indicated for coastal and southern tip of Tamil Nadu, the west coast and south and south-west Gujarat during April, May, June.

The heating process would start lifting gradually in the run-up to the onset of the south-west monsoon although extreme south peninsula and Gujarat might still witness flare-ups on the home stretch.

As for monsoon rains, the IRI maintained the outlook for maximum probability for normal rainfall going into June-July-August, though the onset phase in April-May-June tends to show some deficiency for eastern parts of the country – especially, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.

Sunday, March 07, 2010

Chennai - A warm and humid evening now 8:07pm .. 29.5°C
NDTV - Greenthon-2 ... ENDs 24 hrs with "3.86 crores and 155 villages... triple of last year" ... WOW!
Chennai - NDTV Hindu holds India green campaign .. http://bit.ly/cM4ZEz
Chennai - Due to a stiff S-E humid winds, early morning temperature was .. 27.8°C (6:18am)
Chennai - School children braving humid temp. of 33.9°C in Besant Nagar beach for NDTV's Greenathon.
NDTV : Greenathon-2 ..campaign for TERI's .. "Lighting a Billion lives" .. check this out .. http://labl.teriin.org/
Donage to the NDTV - Greenathon ... "Lighting a Billion Lives" ... http://bit.ly/c1jFL8
RT @nitinbindal: congrats to NDTV for Greenathon concept....
Lighting a Billion Lives ... NDTV: Greenathon-2 .. http://bit.ly/dACmHE
RT @ndtv: Donations for NDTV-Toyota greenathon cross Rs 1 crore
NDTV - Greenathon-2 ... http://green.ndtv.com/

Friday, March 05, 2010

‘Advection' causing mercury to rise over north-west

The India Meteorology Department (IMD) has said that ‘warm air advection' is causing maximum and minimum temperatures to continue to remain appreciably above normal over many parts of northwest and central India.

The net result of warm air advection, a process in which the wind blows from a region of warm air to a region of cooler air, makes the region warmer. This is expected to help the summer clime gradually entrench itself over northwest India.

MERCURY RISE

Explaining the ‘advection' process, experts say wind blows from a region of warm air to a region of cooler air, resulting in a warming of the colder region. As the warm advection persists, temperatures in the colder region begins to increase.

On Thursday, maximum temperatures were above normal over most parts of Rajasthan, many parts of Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Madhya Pradesh, north Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, Manipur, Tripura, west Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Vidarbha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

While no significant change is expected in minimum temperatures over northwest India during the next 24 hours, the maximum temperature is expected to fall over northwest India during the next two days due to cloudiness from a prevailing western disturbance.

Meanwhile, the western disturbance of moderate intensity lay parked over the western Himalayan region with an induced upper air cyclonic circulation over central Rajasthan. Coming close on its heels is a fresh westerly system, which will impact both western Himalayas and Punjab around Saturday.



Strong northwesterly to westerly winds are prevailing over Gangetic plains in the lower levels.

Satellite imagery on Thursday morning showed convective clouds over Jammu and Kashmir. Low to medium clouds (partly cloudy) were seen over Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarkhand and the Northeastern States.

Scattered to fairly widespread rain or snow is expected to occur over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh during the next 24 hours, and isolated thereafter. Scattered rain or snow will occur over Uttarkhand during this period. Scattered to fairly widespread rain or thundershowers have also been forecast for the Northeastern States. Isolated rain or thunderstorms are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and parts of west Uttar Pradesh during the next 24 hours.

Forecast for the week ending March 11 by the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) suggests that snow, rain and thunderstorms will prevail southward from Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand, Punjab, Haryana, parts of north Rajasthan, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh.

These (snow, rain, thunderstorms) will be piloted by back-to-back western disturbances trooping in from across the border around Saturday and by mid-week next week, according to predictions from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

Early forecasts by NCEP for the following week (March 12-20) suggest that western disturbances will continue to roll in, setting up the weather over north, extreme northwest, east and northeast India.

The weather will be particularly heavy over west Uttar Pradesh and along the Himalaya foothills and Nepal where heavy rains can trigger landslides, according to the forecasts.