A day beyond the original forecasted date of 3rd/4th June (by Vagaries in MW), With good rainfall for the 3rd day running, and favourable factors like OLR and depth of SW winds, the SouthWest Monsoon Moves into Kerala on the 5th. Check SWM advance Map on Current Weather Page.
Amongst the rainfall in the State today: Ernakulam 67 mms, Kozhikode 58.6mms, Hosdurg 52mms, Vadakara 49 mms, Kudulu 47.4 mms, Quilandy 41.2 mms and Kannur 38.7 mms.
In the Western Ghats of Karnataka, Agumbe recieved 97 mms of rain. In coastal Karnataka, Karwar measured 63 mms and Mangalore 62 mms and Honavar 39 mms. Interiors were mainly devoid of rainfall. More to the North, Panjim Goa notched up 73 mms.
As a result, with more rains next 24 hrs, Monsoon can move into Coastal Karnataka by 6th night.
Further push into Goa and South Konkan by the 8th, and Mumbai will get the Monsoon onset by the 12th/13th of June. Subsequently, SWM may stall beyond 10N (around Dahanu).
A weak MJO phase is forecasted in our seas from the 16th of June. Normally, a weak phase is expected to last between 14-21 days.
Studying this event, and an anticipitated unfavourable OLR after 17th June, it seems the SWM will remain as a weak current in the regions where it has set in, and go into a "weaker" phase after the 16th of June.