Nilofar - "going down"

4pm, Cyclone Nilofar has started to degrade ... and has drifted North during past 12hrs ... http://ow.ly/i/7o2XP 
4pm, Check the latest ADT analysis of Cyclone Nilofar, pressure around 972mb ... "its going down" .... http://ow.ly/i/7o31d 

Nilofar - Models expect the Cyclone to weaken rapidly (36hrs) and "may" reach Kutch, S Pakistan as a LOW on 31-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/7o3jG 

Weather Instagram at October 29, 2014 at 03:18PM

#chennai - 3pm, another dry day. Feels like early December. Stiff breeze from north. #weather

from Instagram

Low-level circulation over S Bay persists and the winds along Tamilnadu coast is from North due to this... http://ow.ly/i/7nWGU 
Circulation expected to drift into S-W Bay in next 2 days.. this'll change the wind direction along TN coast to E-N-E !!

N,central Tamilnadu coast, #Chennai is expected to get RAIN from this Bay circulation only after noon of Friday ! 
Today evening and 30-Oct... scattered T showers expected for S,S-central,W-ghats Tamilnadu, S Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWNW 

NAVGEM model expects the present S Bay circulation to persist even till 3/4-Nov along S-E coast Srilanka ... http://ow.ly/i/7nWRx 
NAVGEM model even suggests that the system will become Depression and move into Gulf Mannar, S Tamilnadu on 5-Nov !! http://ow.ly/i/7nWTb 
But GFS expects a fresh circulation over S-E Bay on 2-Nov and track West .. http://ow.ly/i/7nWV7 

Nilofar - Will track N-E from now and weaken !

Analysis show that Cyclone Nilofar is still a Severe Cyclone with pressure around 961.4 mb.
Winds upto 180 kmph.
But the latest Satellite IR, visible shows its W,S,S-W quadrants are getting exposed (or less convective activity) 

Now the system is under grip of upper-level westerlies, in next 12/18 hrs, the system is expected to weaken due to less moisture supply and drift N-E towards Gujarat.

Most of the models suggest that Nilofar will track N-E from now on and weaken and make landfall as Cyclone / Depression along Kutch, Gujarat and along S Pakistan coast on 31-Oct.

Cyclone "NILOFAR" intensifying Rapidly , a "CAT-4"cyclone