Sunday, October 31, 2010

2:30pm, Thunder cells over N.kerala, S.central Tamilnadu & N. Srilanka... Cloud activity along N. Tamilnadu & S. Andhra. http://ow.ly/i/53WL
Chennai - is very cloudy now 3:35pm... chance of a long steady drizzle around 5pm.
Latest COLA-GFS model also predicts that Diwali cyclone over Bay to hit Chennai ... http://ow.ly/i/53Wh
IMD-GFS predicts the upcoming cyclone to be very close to Chennai on Diwali day .. http://ow.ly/i/53FI ... it may move towards Andhra coast
We can expect a Low pressure system over S-E corner Bay on 2-Nov... this will be the seed for upcoming Diwali cyclone for Tamilnadu coast
5:30am, A low level circulation is over N. Tamilnadu coast nd S. Andhra coast, heavy showers expected in another 12 hrs. http://ow.ly/i/53EG
More showers predicted for N. Tamilnadu in another 6 to 12 hrs.
11am, Heavy monsoon showers along S. coastal Andhra ... http://ow.ly/i/53Ej

Saturday, October 30, 2010

RT @yeskarthik: A view of the sun setting from my balcony :) chennai @weatherofindia http://ping.fm/m9zht (5:42pm)
Chennai - 100% chance of more showers towards midnight and into early hrs of 31-Oct.
RT @vatsala: no rain for the past three hours in Thiruvanmiyur, just cloudy Now becoming dark again @weatherofindia
RT @shals88: My room is just so cold with just having the windows open like chennai rain
RT @uniqgiri: Finally rain stopped for a while in Chennai. Rain is nice but roads not so nice ):
Chennai - Showers will pick up strength towards late evening or around midnight
RT @a_for_shreya: @nivedita_shetty :)) Fyn dear :)) Non stop rain fr 3days n still.... Lovely climate ;)) (chennai)
@jayakumaur >> Check this list for cyclone names .. http://ow.ly/31Seh
There may be a lull in showers along Andhra & Tamilnadu coast on 3,4-Nov-2010... while interior tamilnadu will receive afternoon T. showers
Till 2-Nov, Heavy showers to persist along Andhra coast while N. Tamilnadu coast will receive sharp showers... http://ow.ly/i/51Tk
Today, low level circulation is over Gulf of mannar, S and S-E Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/51T9
RT @ndtvhindu: WEATHER UPDATE-Chennai: Few spells of rain expected over the next 24 hours.
Diwali cyclone may be called as Cyclone "JAL" ... predicted to track towards N. Tamilnadu coast .. http://ow.ly/31RdJ
RT @meghadas: RT @Bani_J: Day #2 in Chennai. making it rain :) http://ping.fm/RnWzs
Diwali cyclone for Tamilnadu coast .. all major international weather models suggest a N. Tamilnadu landfall ... http://ow.ly/31Rct
RT @ntshamz2010: @EndhirenV2dot0 raining in Bangalore. rain in Chennai too...
Chennai - Temperature now 11:28am is 24.3 C
@rohith23 >> Follow us for more on Chennai and India weather report, analysis and forecast.. OR visit www.indianweatherman.com
Chennai - Wind and cloud movement is from N-N-W.. this is not a typical N-E monsoon wind and cloud direction.
COLA-GFS suggests a Cyclone for Tamilnadu coast on Diwali day ... will it materialize & strike N.Tamilnadu ??... http://ow.ly/i/51AG
RT @peejaey: My rusty geyser was switched on for first time this year! It's shivering cold in Chennai! rain
@madhankp >> You can follow us for more on Chennai and India weather report, analysis and forecast.. visit www.indianweatherman.com
RT @ratnakarsm: rain is back in full swing to chennai.... its really awesome
RT @madhankp: My mobile says it will rain till Monday n Tuesday its likely to be cloudy...
Chennai - Heavy drizzles continue now 11:18am
Chennai - Low clouds are moving from N-N-W this is due to the Low circulation over S-W Bay and over Srilanka
Chennai - Heavy widespread showers all thru night into morning and even continues now 11:14am
Last evening, the S-W Bay low was over Srilanka and adjoining Gulf of Mannar .. http://ow.ly/i/51qp
RT @muralirbk: heavy rain freezes chennai.. i'm enjoying d climat frm bed nearer to window.... Wooow its very cool yar.!!!
9am, Sat shot shows heavy showers all along Andhra coast & N. Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/i/51pB
RT @nisha_chari: its pouring down in chennai from last nite....!! had a gr8 drive tis mrng....always enjoyed driving in the rain!! :)
RT @vatsala: Started raining two minutes ago Thiruvannmiyur @weatherofindia chennai weather (5:37am)

Friday, October 29, 2010

NCEP - GFS (Future cyclone Path)

Complete track and Sea surface temperature



















925mb Wind Swath



















Current track and Sea surface temperature



Path


Path

Models showing projected path of Future Cyclone Jal or Typhoon Aere

GFS Model - Showing Cyclone Jal near Chennai on 5th November


















NOGAPS Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 5th November


















EFS Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 6th November


















CMC Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 4th November



















IMD GFS Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 5th November

























NCMWRF T254 Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 5th November



















ECMWF Model - Showing Cyclone near TN Coast on 6th November

RT @sowmihappy: "Destruction it may sometimes pour But only rain can life restore." (chennai)
RT @apoorvasripathi: Is it just me or is anyone else finding the rain equally depressing? (Chennai)
RT @jaishnal: Chennai - "Chanceless climate.watchin rain aftr so many mths....realy happeeee..:):)"
RT @dinaithal: சென்னையில் பெய்துவரும் கனமழையால் நிரம்பி வழியும் ஏரிகள்: http://bit.ly/9hv6Ga
RT @digitaltyphoone: Typhoon CHABA (201014) is at 28.6N, 133.4E with 965hPa and 35m/s on 2010-10-29 09 UTC by JMA http://eye.tc/t/z?7N
4pm, Coastal clouds clearing off .. New thunder cells visible over S.central Tamilnadu & S. Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/4ZLL
RT @balajisanjeev: And the traffic becomes chaotic with water logged roads.. Chennai monsoon rain
Chennai - skies getting clear & sun shining thru 4:55pm.. more showers towards midnight and into early hrs of 30-Oct
RT @fultofaltu: http://ping.fm/8LLwO - Dark rainy clouds in tuticorin :) Cc : @weatherofindia (4:14pm)

Tamilnadu rain 28-Oct-2010

Rain in Tirupur
-------------------
Tirupur: Rain hit many parts of the district on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Following is the rainfall recorded (in mm) by various rain gauge stations in the district – Dharapuram-54; Udumalpet -38; Palladam-31; Tirupur-18.4; Kangeyam-16.2; Mulanur-13 and Avinashi-2.

http://www.hindu.com/2010/10/29/stories/2010102956150500.htm

Heavy rain lashes Thanjavur
---------------------------------------
THANJAVUR: Heavy rain lashed Thanjavur and Tiruvarur districts on Thursday. The rain is beneficial for samba transplantation.

The amount of rainfall received in both the districts till 8 a.m. on Thursday : Kumbakonam 29 mms; Kodavasal 26.4 mms; Lower Anaicut 35 mms; Valangaiman 13.4 mms, Nannilam 10.3 mms and Peravurani 8.2 mms

http://www.hindu.com/2010/10/29/stories/2010102955940300.htm

Heavy rain lashes Salem
-------------------------------
SALEM: Rain lashed Salem city and its suburbs on Thursday.Heavy rain has been battering the district since Wednesday evening, leaving two dead.

Omalur recorded highest rainfall of 41 mm of rain followed by Yercaud 31.8 mm, Sankagiri 30, Edapadi 25.6, Mettur 25.4 and Salem 13.7 mm.

http://www.hindu.com/2010/10/29/stories/2010102951090300.htm

Rain lashes Coimbatore district
---------------------------------
Coimbatore: Coimbatore district witnessed widespread rain on Wednesday.Steady inflow into catchments at Siruvani and reservoirs under the Parambikulam Aliyar Project has been reported, owing to the showers.Officials here expect the rainfall figures to go up on Thursday.The rainfall figures in m.m. at 8.30 a.m. on Wednesday are as follows, according to official sources:

Annur 40, Mettuppalayam 34, Periyanaickenpalayam 16, Sulur 98, Agricultural University 8, Chinna Kallar 1, Valparai PAP 21, Valparai 6, Sholayar 9, Siruvani 1 and Coimbatore South 2.

http://www.hindu.com/2010/10/28/stories/2010102863060300.htm

RT @highway_chile: Rain again lovin it....! (2:15pm)
RT @j_sriramin: ☁☂ Its raining in chennai and travelling in ECR is one gr8 joy.Past Muthukadu and the Trees are so GREEN.
Chennai - First North East monsoon style shower happening now 3pm in Saidapet.
North Easterly winds are 'RINSING' Tamilnadu coast ... http://ow.ly/31kLi

North Easterly winds are 'RINSING' Tamilnadu coast

  1. North Easterly winds are 'RINSING' south eastern coast of India especially Tamilnadu. The SWM 2010 withdrawal is evident by widespread TS activity in Tamilnadu. Usually withdrawal will be pronounced in coastal areas, where as during this SWM 2010 withdrawal period interior and western parts of TN is experiencing more TS activity than the coastal area.
  2. My friend pointed out a peculiar scenario in which it is noted that western Pacific High Pressure system located in China, is drifting towards WEST.
  3. This upper winds drag clouds along its path.
  4. Further the resultant reaction between receding westerlies and the meso scale incoming easterlies cause horizontal vortex to form and resulted in TS in interior to western parts of TN.
  5. It is interpreted from model OUTPUTS that in the entire troposphere, easterlies will be strengthening within next 36 hrs to proclaim the onset of NEM 2010.
posted by Kaneyen
@emkay456 >> First let the low pressure to form over S-E Bay and then we shall see which direction it takes. We prefer ECMWF direction..!!
RT @emkay456: @weatherofindia ecmwf is predicting a landfall over N. Andhra - S. Orissa around 7th Nov. for the cyclone ? http://is.gd/gqSbX
Try visiting http://isitraining.in/ ... for simple weather report of any city around the world
11:30am, a cloudy morning so far for Punjab, Himachal, Kashmir and W. Rajasthan... http://ow.ly/i/4Ztb
11:30am, Heavy cloud activity all along Andhra coast and N. Tamilnadu coast.. showers will pickup towards evening.. http://ow.ly/i/4Ztb
Take a look at the Cyclone predicted for 5-Nov.. IMD-GFS.. http://ow.ly/i/4ZsF .. and COLA-GFS.. http://ow.ly/i/4ZsH ..will it materialize
Chennai - Rainfall in Nungambakkam zone till 8:30am today.. 63.3 mm
Widespread showers expected for entire Tamilnadu & Andhra coast till 3-Nov... after that there'll be a break for a max 2 days.
Will the upcoming cyclone towards N. Tamilnadu coast on 5-Nov affect the Diwali celebrations?? hope not... http://ow.ly/i/4Zsi
A cyclone over Bay , 1st of the N-E monsoon season is predicted to form over S-E Bay on 3-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/4Zs0
A fresh low circulation will form along central & N. Tamilnadu coast on 31-Oct... and it'll move west and cross into Arabian sea on 3-Oct
Present S-W Bay low is expected to move in W direction towards S-E Tamilnadu coast before 30-Oct.
5:30am, still the Low circulation is over S-W Bay near E-S-E Srilanka... http://ow.ly/i/4ZrE
RT @digitaltyphoone: Typhoon CHABA (201014) is at 27.6N, 132.0E with 960hPa and 35m/s on 2010-10-29 03 UTC by JMA http://eye.tc/t/z?7N
Chennai - Still no wind or cloud movement from E-N-E.. No N-E monsoon showers yet !.. but almost there.
RT @vatsala: drizzling and cloudy in thiruvanmiyur, chennai @weatherofindia wondering if schools will be closed today on account of rain

Thursday, October 28, 2010

NEM 2010 onset.

  1. North Easterly winds are 'RINISING' south eastern coast of India especially Tamilnadu. The SWM 2010 withdrawal is evident by widespread TS activity in Tamilnadu. Usually withdrawal will be pronounced in coastal areas, where as during this SWM 2010 withdrawal period interior and western parts of TN is experiencing more TS activity than the coastal area.
  2. My immediate boss pointed out a peculiar scenario in which it is noted that western Pacific High Pressure system located in China, is drifting towards WEST.
  3. This upper winds drag clouds along its path.
  4. Further the resultant reaction between receding westerlies and the meso scale incoming easterlies cause horizontal vortex to form and resulted in TS in interior to western parts of TN.
  5. It is interpreted from model OUTPUTS that in the entire troposphere, easterlies will be strengthening within next 36 hrs to proclaim the onset of NEM 2010.
@christin_mathew >> Where in chennai is raining now ? In saidapet no rain now. Follow us for more weather updates & forecasts.
RT @christin_mathew: Its raining in chennai .Hey rain go away little christin wants to tweet/read..... (6:36pm)
RT @nytimesgreen: On Our Radar: Record Salmon Run in British Columbia http://bit.ly/bAzhYe
RT @digitaltyphoone: Typhoon CHABA (201014) is at 25.6N, 130.1E with 935hPa and 45m/s on 2010-10-28 12 UTC by JMA http://eye.tc/t/z?7N
RT @nirutots: Did I bring rain from Kovai to Chennai? Chennai wasn't this way when I left to Kovai!! (3:57pm)
Chennai - now 5:38pm, intermittent mild showers & Drizzles continue... Clouds starting to move from N-N-E.

Typhoon Chaba


The loose spiraling clouds of Typhoon Chaba are spread across most of the Philippine Sea in this true-color image from October 27, 2010. When the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired the image at 10:25 a.m. local time (2:25 UTC), Chaba was strengthening into a Category 3 storm. Two hours earlier, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center estimated Chaba’s winds to be 95 knots (176 kilometers per hour or 109 miles per hour), and the storm reached 100 knots (185 km/hr or 115 mph) by 2:00 p.m. local time. Chaba was forecast to weaken into a tropical storm before going ashore over Japan on about October 30.
The large image is the highest-resolution version of the image. The image is available in additional resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response Team.
RT @cnnelite: Thailand floods claimed 68 lives: The death toll from this month's floods in ... http://bit.ly/d72rtm
Nagercoil - Sharp showers just now started 3:33pm... very dark now, No wind and No lightning yet!
Now 2:34pm, Heavy thunder showers along N-E Tamilnadu and S. Andhra ... more showers breaking over N,central Tamilnadu.. http://ow.ly/i/4XH3
IMD has maintained the watch for commencement of northeast monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu and adjoining Peninsular India around Friday

North-East monsoon gathers force

An intense high-pressure area (anticyclone) has dug in deep over South-East Asia compressing the north-easterly flows along its southern flank into an intensive band as they head for the Andaman Sea.
In fact, the Thai Met Department has spoken about a strengthening North-East monsoon current across southern Thailand and the upper Gulf of Thailand over the next five days.

MONSOON TROUGH
The area of northeast monsoon influence is joined to the immediate west with the monsoon trough over the Andaman Sea, which would bring heavy to very heavy falls over these regions.
This is exactly the timeline within which India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the northeast monsoon to unveil along the Tamil Nadu coast.
It has maintained the watch for commencement of northeast monsoon rains over Tamil Nadu and adjoining Peninsular India around Friday.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has retained the watch for weak low-pressure area washing over along the North Tamil Nadu coast to scale up rainfall.

‘LOW' NEXT WEEK
A full-fledged ‘low' has been forecast by Tuesday (Nov 5), which some models suggest could intensify over East-central Bay of Bengal.
There is, however, no consensus on the track it might take, since a progressively activating East Indian Ocean could force the system to digress from its path and head south-southeast and away from Tamil Nadu coast.
In any case, fairly widespread rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Tamil Nadu, Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands during the weekend.
It would be scattered over Rayalaseema, South Karnataka and Lakshadweep.
Extended outlook until Monday (November 1) spoke about the possibility of fairly widespread rainfall over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Meanwhile, Peninsular India has been witnessing some heralding weather already, with fairly widespread rain being reported from Coastal Karnataka during the 24 hours ending Wednesday morning.
It was scattered over Tamil Nadu, South Interior Karnataka and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands while being isolated over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.
The ruling weather system continued to be the upper air cyclonic circulation over West-central Bay of Bengal, generating cloudiness over the region.
An Insat cloud imagery in the afternoon showed the presence of convective (rain-producing) clouds over parts of South Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, Southeast Arabian Sea, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Karnataka and North Kerala.
Chennai - Heavily cloudy now 1:10pm, reports of rain over N-W Chennai. Wind is from N-W.. by tonight the wind direction will be from E-N-E
@sudhan_updated >> Where is it raining in Chennai now ?? In Saidapet no rain Yet ..!
@mollyjbs_shawty >> Try following us for latest weather updates, reports & forecasts.. or visit us at www.indianweatherman.com
RT @sudhan_updated: ENjoyin the rain... Wowiieeeee chennai (12:58pm)
RT @twit4sss: Yipeee...Its Raining at Ambattur..hope the monsoon from today..Thanks to @weatherofindia 's prediction.
12pm, Where is Srilanka?? Heavy cloud activity over S-W bay.. all due to a circulation and Easterlies ... http://ow.ly/i/4XAj
N-E monsoon first Cyclone expected to form over S.central Bay on 4-Nov.. http://ow.ly/i/4Xvu .. a Depression over Arabian sea as well.
N-E Monsoon current to pickup strength from today evening. and Showers forecast for N. Tamilnadu from morning of 30-Oct http://ow.ly/i/4Xvp
On 31-Oct, a weak circulation is expected all along N. tamilnadu coast.. this will strengthen the N-E monsoon over Tamilnadu.
The present circulation over Bay is expected to move W-N-W and cross S-E Tamilnadu coast on 31-Oct.
5:30am, A low level circulation seen over S-Central Bay... meanwhile Easterlies is slowly touching Tamilnadu coast.. http://ow.ly/i/4Xv3

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years:
(Must be global warming -:))).

Analysis of ice cores, drilled at Law Dome just inland from Australia’s Casey Station in the Antarctic shows increased snowfall in the Antarctic over the past 30 years.

But inevitably global warming is then invoked on the basis of speculation and correlations.

Dr van Ommen said the ice cores provide a record of annual variations in snowfall and provide a record that stretches back over 750 years.“Over the past 30 years, the cores indicate that there has been a significant increase in snowfall in that area,” he said.“The snowfall increase we see in the last 30 years lies well outside the natural range recorded over the past 750 years,” Dr van Ommen said.

“This inversely correlates to the occurrence of a significantly lower rainfall and subsequent drought that has been experienced in the southwest of Western Australia. “So when there’s extra moisture at Law Dome, the same circulation pattern is starving Western Australia of moisture.”

Further work is underway to explore these connections and understand the reasons behind them. However, these events of greater snowfall in the Antarctic and drought in WA also coincide with human induced changes in the atmosphere that may be contributing to global warming.

The item only becomes newsworthy because of this “coincidence” and the speculation that this increased snowfall may be linked to the drought with reduced precipitation in Western Australia which may be linked to “global warming” !!

But the tag “global warming” brings in the funding.

Today is Climate Fools Day. Celebrate it!




"The climate has gone up and down for billions of years.
It’s been much hotter and much colder.
The temperature has gone up and down slower and faster.
There has been much more and much less CO2 in the atmosphere.
Other planets in the solar system are changing at the same rate as earth.    

Why is it any different now? 

Future generations will wonder in bemused amazement that the early 21st century’s developed world went into hysterical panic over a globally averaged temperature increase of a few tenths of a degree, and, on the basis of gross exaggerations of highly uncertain computer projections combined into implausible chains of inference, proceeded to contemplate a roll-back of the industrial age.”


This is a quote from Dr. Richard Lindzen. He is one of the world’s most respected climatologists, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology Professor of Atmospheric Science.

Global warming hysteria is on the retreat. Each October 26th is celebrated as a day of remembrance that the fight against pseudo-science must go on, and we must be ever vigilant. 

On this occasion, we bring you this excellent posting by Anthony Watts - "Today is Climate Fools Day."

Read more here
                                                                                                                                                                                                      
N-E monsoon first Cyclone expected to form over S-S-E. Bay on Diwali day 5-Nov-2010.
A Low level circulation is expected over S. Bay on 29-Oct... this will start the N-E monsoon along the Tamilnadu coast. http://ow.ly/i/4Wej

Rain from Typhoon Megi ... a report


Though a storm’s strength is gauged by wind speed, tropical cyclones also pose a hazard because of the intense rain they bring to a region. This image shows the heavy rain Super-typhoon Megi unleashed as it tracked west across the Pacific between October 13 and October 23, 2010. The heaviest rainfall—more than 600 millimeters or nearly 24 inches—appears in dark blue. The lightest rainfall—less than 75 millimeters or 3 inches—appears in light green.
The storm’s track is superimposed on the rainfall map. Megi formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on October 13, 2010. It quickly strengthened to a named storm, and three days after forming, had grown to a super typhoon. In general, rainfall roughly matches the storm track, especially west and northwest of the Philippines.
Over the northern Philippines, Megi cut a wide swath of destruction, destroying homes and accounting for at least 28 deaths, according to the Associated Press. As the storm track indicates, Megi reached its greatest intensity immediately east of the Philippines. The storm weakened slightly after October 17, but remained powerful across the northern Philippines.
Over the South China Sea, Megi re-strengthened somewhat before making landfall along the Chinese coast. The storm dropped heavy precipitation along a curving path between the Philippines and China.
Away from the storm track, areas of heavy rainfall appear east of Taiwan, where torrential rains led to deadly landslides. The Associated Press reported that, as of October 24, floods and landslides had killed as many as 31 people in that island nation. United Daily News reported that the heavy rains in Taiwan might have resulted from interactions between Megi and monsoon weather patterns northeast of the storm.
This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.

7.7 Magnitude Quake off Sumatra on 25-Oct-2010


At 9:42 p.m. local time (14:42 UTC) on October 25, 2010, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake occurred off the coast of Indonesia. The quake struck 20.6 kilometers (12.8 miles) below the floor of the ocean, spawning a 3-meter (10-foot) tsunami on Pagai Island. Pagai is accessible only by boat, and rough seas prevented rescue workers from reaching the island immediately after the disaster. Within roughly 24 hours of the quake, however, news reports told of more than 100 casualties and as many as 500 people missing.
This image shows the region where the earthquake and numerous aftershocks occurred on October 25 and 26, 2010. Bathymetry appears in shades of blue, and topography appears in shades of brown. Thin black lines delineate coastlines, and a thick black line marks the fault line in this region. The epicenter of the 7.7-magnitude earthquake appears as a red star. Aftershocks appear as red circles, with bigger circles indicating stronger aftershocks.
West of Sumatra, a string of islands runs southeast-northwest. Nearest the epicenter, Pagai is divided into two parts: Pagai Utara in the northwest, and Pagai Selatan in the southeast. Tiny islands fringe Pagai Selatan’s western side. Pagi and its tiny neighbors evidently bore the brunt of the high water.
The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reported that the October 25 quake resulted from thrust faulting along the subduction zone where the Australia Plate slides below the Sunda Plate. Relative to the Sunda Plate, the Australia Plate moves toward the north-northeast at roughly 57–69 millimeters per year. The USGS described the October 25 event as the latest in a series of ruptures. The quake occurred roughly 800 kilometers (500 miles) south of the 9.1-magnitude earthquake that struck December 26, 2004. Tsunamis from that earthquake killed more than a quarter million people.
Located along the Pacific Ring of Fire, Indonesia experiences considerable seismic activity, in both earthquakes and volcanoes. On October 26, 2010, the Australian Government’s Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre reported that Mount Merapi on the Indonesian island of Java (southeast of Sumatra) erupted, releasing plumes of volcanic ash.
Bay is getting very active as the Easterlies is slowly filling into S-E Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/4WcO
6pm, Heavy showers now engulfing most of Kerala, S. Karnataka and W & N-W Tamilnadu ... http://ow.ly/i/4WcO
RT @weatherplanet: Record Number Of Cosmic Rays Hit Earth In 2009. http://fb.me/MvI7jdsy
RT @alertnet: VIDEO: Climate change raises flood risk for Asia s coastal cities http://bit.ly/djaCxQ GdnDevNetwork disaster
2:30pm, Massive thunder showers sweeping most N. Tamilnadu, S. Karnataka and N. Kerala .. http://ow.ly/i/4VXy
12:30pm, Heavy thunder showers along N. Tamilnadu coast and N. Kerala ... http://ow.ly/i/4VOh
IMD :: North-East monsoon may break out by Friday, 29-Oct .. http://ow.ly/303NJ

IMD :: North-East monsoon may break out by Friday

The launch window for north-east monsoon has been thrown open with India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that the seasonal rains may break out over Tamil Nadu and adjoining peninsular India around Friday.
Coinciding with the launch phase, a weather system has been forecast to wash over along the Chennai coast Sunday/Monday to bring heavy rains over Chennai and the rest of the Tamil Nadu coast.

WESTERLIES OUT
Prevailing wind pattern suggested that the westerly winds may be entering the last lap over Peninsular India, if not entirely swept away by the north-easterlies turning easterlies more to the south.
The easterlies are shown to rapidly gather steam across the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Peninsular India to strike up a steady cruise by Friday when the onset of north-east monsoon is expected to happen.
The build-up to Friday as seen by the IMD indicated that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over coastal Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, south coastal Orissa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Scattered rain or thundershowers has been forecast over Kerala and Interior Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.

‘LOW' BY NOV 5
International models did not indicate any major weather system (monsoon depressions or cyclones) materialising as part of the north-east monsoon entourage until during the first week of November.
The European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), however, predicts the formation of a low-pressure area over South-east Bay of Bengal by November 5, up to which forecasts were available.
Significantly on Tuesday, the IMD saw the south-west monsoon exiting large parts of East, Central and Peninsular India in one fell swoop paving the way for the monsoon on retreat or north-east monsoon.

WITHDRAWAL APACE
The system had withdrawn from Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat; most parts of West Bengal and Sikkim; parts of Orissa, more parts of Chhattisgarh, most of Vidarbha, parts of Marathwada, Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan; North Arabian Sea and parts of Central Arabian Sea.
Forecast until Sunday said that fairly widespread rainfall activity would occur over Orissa, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Meanwhile, minimum temperatures have fallen two to three deg Celsius below normal over some parts of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh ahead of the onset of winter over north-west India.
Forecasts indicated that minimum temperatures would fall by one to two deg Celsius over Indo-Gangetic plains and East India during the next three days.
Chennai - Having good low cloud formation and few thunder cells seen over W-S-W of Chennai. Good wind from N-W. Mild temp. at 32.3 deg C
Wave after wave of heavy N-E showers will start for N. Tamilnadu coast from 30-Oct.
N-E monsoon current will be over Tamilnadu coast from midnight of 28-Oct.. N-E Showers expected from morning of 29-Oct.
11am sat shot shows the associated heavy cloud activity over S-E Bay... http://ow.ly/i/4VJP
Low level easterlies is already over S-E Bay over Andhaman islands .. http://ow.ly/i/4VJM
A low pressure system is expected on 29-Oct just S-E of Srilanka and travel towards S-E Tamilnadu on 31-Oct... http://ow.ly/i/4VJH
5:30am, A minor low level circulation is along N. Tamilnadu coast and another one taking shape over S. Bay ... http://ow.ly/i/4VJs
Chennai - goin to be another showery afternoon

Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Update: Mount Merapi Volcano Finally Erupts

UPDATE 
Finally Mount Merapi erupted at 5.02pm (local time) Tuesday sending clouds of ash as high as 1,500 and spewed clouds of hot ash, causing burn injuries to at least 13 people. Three explosions around 1800 (1100 GMT) spewing volcanic material as high as 1.5km (one mile) and sending heat clouds down the slopes.


Television visuals showed fallen ash from the volcano as far away as 15km at evacuation centres. The peak of Mount Merapi was clouded with smoke making it impossible to see if lava was spewing out, but that ash had started raining down on frightened residents.


"This is an initial phase of an eruption," Subandrio, head of the Volcanic Technology Development and Research Centre in Yogyakarta was quoted by the media. There are fears that the current activity could foreshadow a much more destructive explosion in the coming weeks or months, though it is possible, too, that the volcano will settle back down after a slow, long period of letting off steam.


Government vulcanologist Surono commented: "Today's eruption released heat clouds of gas and ash down the slopes for about two hours. We cannot tell you how far the searing clouds went down on the slopes because it's dark. 7.5 million cubic meters of volcanic material was the remnants from the 1911 eruption and prone to collapse under magma pressure.If the 1911 dome is pushed by magma, the domes created during the 1997 and 2006 eruptions will also collapse.”


 A three-month-old baby died after experiencing respiratory problems after Indonesia's most volatile volcano Mount Merapi. Private MetroTV reported that another baby died when a mother ran in panic after the eruption started. Its report cited a local doctor and showed the mother weeping as the baby was covered with white blanket at a hospital. These two babies are among 19 officially admitted dead.One rescuer, Christian Awuy, told the BBC that he feared up to 50 could have been killed.

6pm, Heavy showers S. Karnataka, S. Kerala and W. Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/4UoB
RT @alertnet: Terrified villagers flee after volcano erupts in Indonesia http://ow.ly/2ZwlZ
Indonesia’s Mount Merapi volcano erupts ... http://ow.ly/2ZuET
RT @vatsala: A Terrible lightning just struck in pallikaranai chennai @weatherofindia raining since 2.30 PM
Chennai - now 5:08pm, getting ready for another round of sharp showers from N-W
Chennai - A 15 minute thunder shower just lashed Saidapet... and moved towards South. Drizzling now 2:15pm
IMD :: North east monsoon ONSET CONDITIONS ... http://ow.ly/2ZnVQ
Mount Merapi - Threatening to Erupt .. http://ow.ly/2ZnPS

IMD sets up watch for North-East monsoon

India Meteorological Department (IMD) has officially got up a watch for the North-East monsoon that could likely make an onset during the course of the week.
In an update on Monday and valid until Saturday, it seemed to suggest that conditions would become favourable for the monsoon on retreat as the week progresses.
It has predicted fairly widespread rainfall over South Peninsular India and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

WEATHER WARNING
A weather warning valid for Monday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Coastal Andhra Pradesh and South Coastal Orissa.
The causative upper air cyclonic circulation over West-central Bay of Bengal and adjoining Coastal Andhra Pradesh has been persisting over the past couple of days.
This system could be the fulcrum around which the seasonal transition of weather would come about over Peninsular India with westerlies getting increasingly replaced by northeasterlies to monsoon easterlies.
Additionally, the IMD has picked the crucial “shear zone” formation along the 15 deg latitude, which defines the playground for northeast monsoon weather systems.
The shear line is a line or narrow zone across which there is an abrupt change in the horizontal wind component; a line of maximum horizontal wind shear.

ONSET CONDITIONS
According to IMD specifications, commencement of north-east monsoon assumes withdrawal of southwest monsoon up to 15º latitude, onset of persistent surface easterlies over Tamil Nadu coast to required depth, fairly widespread rainfall over coastal Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and adjoining areas.
These conditions are likely to be met as the week progresses, with surface easterlies notching up cruising speed by Friday. Rainfall would also have become more widespread over the peninsula by then.
An IMD forecast until Thursday spoke about the build-up with fairly widespread rain or thundershowers being forecast for Coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Coastal Orissa and Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast for Rayalaseema, remaining parts of Orissa, Konkan and Goa.
Satellite cloud imagery on Monday revealed the presence of convective clouds over parts of Coastal Andhra Pradesh and West-central Bay of Bengal.
International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University has indicated wetter than average weather for Rayalaseema, parts of Telangana, North and South Interior Karnataka and parts of North and Interior Tamil Nadu during the six days ending Friday.
Other international models signalled to the setting up of a strong “pulse” entering the Bay of Bengal from upstream South China Sea later in the week.
They also indicated that, onset of northeast monsoon during the week may not have the back-up of a wet phase of the periodic Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave as forecast earlier.
The onset, if at all, would happen on the monsoon's own inherent strength and dynamics. The MJO wave is now forecast to settle over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining peninsular seas around November 7.
Transiting the upper levels of the atmosphere, the wave has been known to set up monsoon onsets, low-pressure areas, depressions and even cyclones.
Given this, the northeast monsoon could likely see a pick up after November 7, according toas per various MJO models surveyed.
The wave, which has implications for ground weather, is seen particularly strong during November 12 and 16.
RT @ebizzbird: Rains affect rubber output: Kerala, which accounts for 90% of India’s output, ... http://bit.ly/bvROXu
11am, Heavy cloud activity all along Andhra coast & N. Tamilnadu coast due to the low circulation.. http://ow.ly/i/4TX1
N-E monsoon onset date along Tamilnadu & S. Andhra coast is Evening of 28-Oct or Morning of 29-Oct.
A weak circulation along Andhra coast will persist till noon of 27-Oct.. more showers expected along Andhra & N. Tamilnadu coast till 27-Oct
Chennai - Entire horizon from West to North are having Early thunder cells... signs of heavy thunder showers in afternoon.

Mount Merapi - Threatening to Erupt.



Seismic activity has escalated dramatically in recent days at Mount Merapi with increasing lava spurts and about 500 volcanic earthquakes recorded over the weekend. 

The mountain last erupted in 2006, when it sent an avalanche of blistering gases and rock fragments racing down the mountain that killed two people. In a 1994 eruption, 70 people were killed in an eruption when the volcano's lava dome collapsed. The volcano killed 1,300 people in 1930

Monday, October 25, 2010

Typhoon Megi / Cyclone Giri .. video report .. http://ow.ly/2YKth
N-E monsoon current expected along Tamilnadu coast from 28-Oct.. and heavy widespread showers from 29-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/4Srn
The circulation along Central Andhra coast to persist till 27-Oct... and it'll bring more showers along Andhra coast and N. Tamilnadu
Cyclone Giri .. a report ... http://ow.ly/2YJ7B

Cyclone Giri



Within a day of forming over the north Indian Ocean, Cyclone Giri intensified into a powerful Category 5 cyclone. This image, taken by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aquasatellite, shows the storm moving ashore over Myanmar (Burma) at 1:25 p.m. local time (6:55 UTC) on October 22, 2010.
The image shows a compact, mature storm with a well-defined eye and a circular shape. (Winds that break cyclones apart also distort the circular shape.) At the time, Giri had winds estimated at 125 knots (230 kilometers per hour or 140 miles per hour), a Category 4 storm. The storm was stengthening explosively, said the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Just 6 hours earlier, Giri’s winds had been at 85 knots (160 km/hr or 100 mph). Five hours after the image was acquired, winds reached 135 knots (250 km/hr or 155 mph), making Giri the equivalent of a Category 5 hurricane.
The last large cyclone to strike Myanmar, Cyclone Nargis, had winds of 115 knots (210 km/hr or 130 mph) at its strongest. Nargis hit the low-lying and populated Irrawaddy Delta on May 3, 2008, causing extensive flooding that left more than 100,000 dead. Though stronger than Nargis, Giri was moving toward a less populated and less vulnerable region. The government had issued warnings ahead of the storm, reported CNN.
The large image is the highest-resolution version of the image. The image is available in additional resolutions from the MODIS Rapid Response System.



Myanmar, Cyclone "Giri" ... Video .. http://ow.ly/2YJ46
Death Toll Rises and Thousands Left Homeless in Giri Aftermath ... http://ow.ly/2YJ1Y
News of Cyclone Giri's damage trickles out of tight-lipped Myanmar, casualties unknown .. http://ow.ly/2YJ10
Taiwan, Megi brought 45 inches (114 cm) of rain to Ilan county in the north-east over a 48-hour period last week
RT @expatlistfrance: News: China reeling from Typhoon Megi http://bbc.in/9ykKgD
Chennai - After some low cloud formation at around 10am. now 1:47pm its clear and dry, with max. temp. at 33.5 C (1:39pm).. wind from North
Mumbai cloudy and almost overcast with high medium clouds. Temperature reads 27.6c at 11.30 a.m.

.
RT @alertnet: Haiti cholera hospital is a horror scene http://dlvr.it/7NLPP
Tamilnadu coast can expected North East monsoon from evening of 27-Oct-2010 or from Morning of 28-Oct-2010
The upper level (500 hPa) air current is expected to become Easterly from evening of 26-Oct.. while the low level (850 hPa) will from 28-Oct
S-E Corner Bay is expected to pop a low circulation on 28-Oct.. and expected to track W-N-W.. towards S-E Tamilnadu and E. Srilanka
More showers expected along Andhra coast and N. Tamilnadu till 26-Oct.. while N-E monsoon is expected over N. Tamilnadu coast on 28-Oct
Present Low circulation over N. Andhra coast is expected to persist along entire Andhra coast till 26-Oct... http://ow.ly/i/4S6k
A clear looking early morning India with heavy activity along N-E Andhra.. due to a weak Low circulation in that zone.. http://ow.ly/i/4S6d
@selvanfun >> Keep it up!. You can also post in our website.. www.indianweatherman.com .. If interested let us know.

Friday, October 22, 2010

Breaking News: Cyclone Giri strikes Western Myanmar, Typhoon Megi ravages Taiwan on the way to China



Just minutes ago, comes the news that Cyclone Giri made a landfall in Mynamar threatening to unleash flooding and landslides. The satellite photo shows Giri making a landfall, near Kyaukphyu, a large island in western Myanmar.  

Read more: http://devconsultancygroup.blogspot.com/2010/10/breaking-news-cyclone-giri-strikes.html
RT @taiwantweet: taiwanTweet.com 3 dead, 27 missing after typhoon hits Taiwan http://bit.ly/bIhX80
Chennai - Having a mild evening.. touched a max of 34.7 C (1:43pm)... very less cloud formation seen thru the day. Wind from S-S-E
5pm, Heavy thunder showers over Orissa, N-N-W Andhra, W.Maharastra & S.central Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/4N70
RT @alertnet: Haiti president confirms cholera outbreak, 138 dead http://ow.ly/2XFOt
5:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" showing less signs of weakening.. Eye still distinct and Half of its cloud mass is inland... http://ow.ly/i/4N6O
3:30pm, Cyclone "Giri", Very severe now and Eye is very close to land ... http://ow.ly/i/4MYN
2:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" .. Eye is very close to Land... rapidly making landfall & crossing into Myanmar.. http://ow.ly/i/4MQP
1:30pm, Cyclone "Giri" is a very Severe Cyclone now .. 18.9N & 93.0E.. Winds : 230kmph, pressure: 929mb.. http://ow.ly/i/4MOe
Chandigarh, Met dept hints at city's first rain after monsoon.. http://ow.ly/2XAAg
Tamilnadu :: North East Monsoon may be late .. http://ow.ly/2XAzj
RT @maveris: 400 tourists stranded on Taiwan mountain road by Typhoon Megi http://bit.ly/af1Zad
Mumbai, Evening rain sign of monsoon withdrawal ... http://ow.ly/2XAxi
Report :: Severe Cyclonic Storm "Giri" ... http://ow.ly/2XAjG
Typhoon Clowns ... http://ow.ly/2XAfr
MONSOON WITHDRAWAL & North East monsoon.. status ... http://ow.ly/2XAbp
Cricket : Ind v Aus, 3rd ODI in Goa on 23-Oct-2010... 90% will be a wash out becoz of heavy showers predicted.
RT @dtncommonwealth: DTN Delhi 2010: Rain threatens Goa ODI; stadium officials optimistic!: Even after spells of rain.. http://bit.ly/aPhNUs
GFS predicts widespread showers for central India, N. Tamilnadu and entire Karnataka coast, Goa on ... 23-Oct
North East monsoon may set in along N. Tamilnadu & S. Andhra on 27-Oct-2010

MONSOON WITHDRAWAL & North East monsoon.. status

Wednesday's well-marked low-pressure area over East-central Bay of Bengal intensified to become Tropical Cyclone Giri on Thursday evening.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the storm might intensify further into a severe cyclonic storm before crossing North Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coast by Friday evening.

JTWC AGREES
The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre tended to agree with this outlook, saying that wind speeds may already have touched 45 to 55 knots (83 to 102 km/hr).
The rapid intensification of the system is attributed to the influence of high sea-surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear (cross-winds that lop off storm heads) and reasonably good ventilation at the top helping it to ‘breathe out.'
As expected, a prevailing western disturbance impacting ocean basins across the geography is what will cause the system to track to the northeast until landfall over Myanmar.
The same western disturbance has started affecting Typhoon Megi in the South China Sea basin, forcing it to abandon a westward track and instead head to the north and northeast, apart from weakening by notches.

BUSIER PACIFIC
The storm is not seen as intensifying anymore, but the JTWC expected it to maintain typhoon strength until landfall over Southern China by Saturday morning.
The direct threat to Hong Kong seem to have been warded off, with the storm taking a more northeasterly track aiming to hit the South China coast northwest of Taiwan.
Meanwhile, the JTWC has put out fresh cyclone notification alerts for the West Pacific under the influence of a strong wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave. The MJO wave travels in the higher levels of the atmosphere and has periodic dry and wet phases with implications for ground weather.
The ‘pull' effect of Cyclone Giri would bring another round of fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

MONSOON WITHDRAWAL
This would effectively cause the southwest monsoon withdrawal pinned down to where it stays currently and delay the onset of the northeast monsoon over the Southeast Coast of India
The 24 hours ending on Thursday morning saw fairly widespread rainfall being reported from West Madhya Pradesh.
It was scattered over East Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, North Madhya Maharashtra while being isolated over Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, South Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
Meanwhile, the prevailing western disturbance will trigger fairly widespread rain or thundershowers over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh and scattered over Uttarakhand during the next two days.
IMD has indicated scattered rain or thundershowers for the Northeastern States on Friday and increase thereafter under the twin influence of Cyclone Giri and the western disturbance.
A separate heavy weather warning valid for Friday said that isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Jammu and Kashmir during the next two days and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura thereafter.
Extended forecast valid until Tuesday said that scattered rainfall would occur over South Peninsular India in what is thought to be a count-down to onset of northeast monsoon.
Typhoon "MEGI" & Cyclone "GIRI" ... http://ow.ly/2XzEj
RT @deepwarriors: Cyclone Giri Hits Kyaukphyu Town In Arakan State http://bit.ly/aIDFCk
RT @investing123: Typhoon Megi Weakens on Path to China http://ow.ly/19zSyW
RT @jendelgadocnn: Typhoon Megi. Taiwan hit hard with flooding & now rockslides. Yilan,Taiwan received 1143mm/45 in 24 hrs.
12pm, As Cyclone "Giri" moving in N-E direction.. entire Karnataka coast, Goa and N. Kerala are getting Heavy rain.. http://ow.ly/i/4MHJ

1.Severe Cyclonic Storm "Giri" has tracked NE and is about to cross the land at Myanmar coast.The "away from the Indian coast" tracking is due to the W.D. heading eastwards, and was forecasted by Vagaries in the initial stage itself. With core pressure at 959 mb,and winds at 85 knots, it is likely to be harsh and fierce in Myanmar.

2.The mentioned W.D.
is now active and precipitating rain in Kashmir and H.P, and overcast conditions in Punjab. Srinagar is 10c and raining at mid day on Friday. Expect snow in the higher ranges.The max. day temperature yesterday was 24c, and it has been at 25c average for the last week there. Amritsar is 20c at mid day today. Highs have been in the 30s last week.
A cooling down, long overdue, will herald a seasonal change not only in the North, but also will be beneficial for the setting in of the NEM, one more +ve factor in addition to the yesterday's discussion on NEM.

3
.The trough "dropping down" along the west coast, discussed in Vagaries in
the last 2 articles, has almost formed an off shore trough, something similar to the seasonal off shore trough, and falls up to Karnataka coast ! An off shore trough along the west coast on 22nd. October !! Somewhat uncommon ! Shows effective rains along the west coast south of Goa. As a reader mentions of heavy monsoon rains from Udipi.
More on this in evening report.
Cyclone "Giri" Very near to Myanmar coast and intensifying by the hour... wind speeds now reaching 180 kmph
Now, Severe Cyclone "Giri" closing in on Myanmar coast .. 18.9N & 93.0E... pressure : 948mb, wind speed: 180 kmph
Update of Cyclone "Giri" ... http://ow.ly/2Xzsb

Cyclone "04B" - "Giri" ... update

Very latest location ... 18.5N and 92.6E
Pressure ... 959mb
Wind speed ... 160 kmph
This Cyclone "Giri" was not predicted by most weather models around the world to become such a severe Cyclone. And that too in very short time span.


IMD
------------

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal.
The severe cyclonic storm “GIRI” over eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and moved northeastwards, lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 22nd October 2010 over the northeast Bay of Bengal near lat. 19.00N and long.93.00E, about 150 km south of Sittwe(Myanmar) and 110 km west-southwest of Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), 240 km south-southeast of Teknaf (Bangladesh) and 650 km southeast of Digha (West Bengal, India).
The current environmental conditions and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models suggest that the system would intensify further and move northeastwards and cross Myanmar coast between Sittwe (Myanmar) and Kyaukpyu (Myanmar) by today, the 22nd October 2010 evening/night.
Since the system is likely to move towards north Myanmar and adjoining Bangladesh coasts, it is not expected to affect east coast of India. However, the system is under constant watch and concerned state Govts. will be informed accordingly.



JTWC
-------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 04B (GIRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF CHITTAGONG, BANGLADESH, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED 
ON A 212330Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 
85 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES OF T=5.0 FROM 
PGTW AT 212330Z AND T=4.0 FROM KNES AT 212030Z. TC 04B HAS CONTINUED 
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT. THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 
THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND 
EAST. GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND CARRY THE SYSTEM INLAND JUST 
AFTER TAU 12, WITH DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING INTENSITY THRESHOLD 
OF 35 KNOTS OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF WESTERN MYANMAR OCCURRING BY 
TAU 36. THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT 
FORECAST, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CYCLONE 
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR PERHAPS INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY 
PRIOR TO LANDFALL DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND PASSAGE 
OVER VERY WARM WATER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 
15 FEET.

JTWC projected path
------------------------------


Satellite shot
-------------------
Now "Giri" has an EYE to it.