1. 94B latest position as on 9.30pm Monday at 17N and 89 E, meaning system has deepened to 1004 mb and moved NW. Expecting to deepen more, and move North to NE. Concentration of rainfall to increase over  West Bengal (Kolkata) and Bangladesh after 19th October.

2. A UAC off the Kerala coast persists. Likely to bring rain along Kerala coast next 2 days. Keeping a watch on this system.

3. As SWM retreats, rainfall will slide south of Maharashtra, and thundershowers will be concentrated in S.I. Karnataka (including Bangalore) this week. Expect thundershowers to continue in South Karnataka this week, but weakening in T.N.

4. Amreli and Junagadh regions of Saurashtra were lashed by a severe hailstorm and heavy rainfall on Monday evening. As post Monsoon temperatures soared to 39.3c at Surendranagar, and 39c at Deesa, with Rajkot soaring to 38.5c, and a temporary low  formed due to heat caused thunderstorms on a local convection level. According to Ashokbhai, a few places measured upto 50 mms in 2 hrs of torrential hailstorms.Expecting these storms in Saurashtra till 19th.

8pm, S.central Tamilnadu and Kerala active with T.showers.. meanwhile a depression "94B" taking shape over N.central Bay http://ow.ly/i/jlKF

Water levels are receding in Pacific islands .. http://ow.ly/6ZmUx

Japanese model sees cool to wet weather for India ... http://ow.ly/6Zm1q

Today it's almost certain that the N-E monsoon will reach Tamilnadu coast on 23/24-Oct .. even a circulation expected over S.Bay on 24-Oct

Present anti cyclone over S.Rajasthan will persist there till 23-Oct and beyond.

Japanese model sees cool to wet weather for India

The repeat La Nina conditions in the east equatorial Pacific are growing, and would continue do so in the following months, according to Japanese researchers.

The La Nina may die out during the northern hemisphere summer of 2012, according to researchers at the Tokyo-based Regional Institute for Global Change (RIGC) attached with the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

EARLIEST FORECAST

RIGC was the earliest global model to come out with a forecast for La Nina as far back as late last year.

In regional forecasts for the next few months, the RIGC said the developing La Nina would bring cool to wet conditions over southern Africa, Australia, Brazil, and India.

It would also help bring down surface temperatures over many parts of the globe except northern Eurasia and eastern US.

Eastern China, Korea and western Japan are likely experience colder weather during this winter, the RIGC said.

Meanwhile, back home, India Meteorological Department (IMD) extended the outlook for a brewing low-pressure system in the Bay of Bengal to Tuesday.

‘LOW' BY TUESDAY

Isolated heavy rain or thundershowers have been forecast over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Monday and Tuesday.

Extended outlook valid until Friday said that the ‘low' over east-central Bay might intensify further.

A short-term outlook until valid Wednesday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would also lash Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Lakshadweep, Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and south Madhya Maharashtra.

Isolated rain or thundershowers are expected over east and northeast India, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh. Rainfall activity will scale up over the Northeastern States from Wednesday.

This could likely indicate a north-northeasterly movement of a well-marked ‘low' from east-central Bay.

WIDESPREAD RAIN

Fairly widespread rainfall activity has been forecast over the Northeastern States, the west coast and extreme south peninsular India during the period until Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the 24 hours ending Sunday morning saw fairly widespread rainfall being recorded over interior Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

It was scattered over Meghalaya, Konkan, Goa and Madhya Maharashtra and isolated over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Arunachal Pradesh,

Assam, Orissa, Telangana, coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Karnataka, the IMD said.

taken from http://www.thehindubusinessline.com

On 19-Oct, Due to LOW over Bay, Heavy rain forecast from evening of 18-Oct for N-E states and Bangladesh coast.. http://ow.ly/i/jkES

Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkC9

Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkC9

Rains over Most of S-W peninsula will vanish from 19-Oct, except over parts of Kerala and Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkC9

In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkBQ

In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkBQ

In 24hrs, Heavy showers possible for N, central Kerala and over West,S.central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/jkBQ

COLA model suggests that E.central Bay LOW will move North and reach Bangladesh on 19-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/jkBv

COLA model suggests that E.central Bay LOW will move North and reach Bangladesh on 19-Oct.. http://ow.ly/i/jkBv

Reliance, Tatas among 150 in race for solar photovoltaic projects ... http://ow.ly/6Zi48

Today, E.central Bay circulation is showing signs of intensifying into a Depression .. http://ow.ly/i/jkAk

Water levels are receding in Pacific islands

Amid growing concerns about drought crises in some small island States of the Pacific, the United Nations today called for comprehensive risk reduction steps to be put in place to protect vulnerable populations living in delicate ecosystems.
“It really is time to assist Tuvalu and Tokelau to increase storage capacities and manage their resources sustainably, including more effective warnings for drier spells,” UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) head of policy John Harding said, referring to two of the region’s island States and territories.
“With climate change predictions pointing to more acute La Niñas in the futures, plans must also include assistance for communities that will be displaced if existing freshwater is not sufficient,” he added, referring to the weather pattern characterized by unusually cool ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific that can bring abnormal conditions to widely separate areas of the world, from floods to droughts to below- or above-normal temperatures.
On the positive side Mr. Harding noted that the strong correlation between drought and La Niña could be a blessing in disguise, since the phenomenon is increasingly predictable and climate experts can inform decision-makers weeks and even months in advance, allowing for increased storage or stockpiling of emergency supplies in advance of a crisis.
The UN Office of the Coordinator of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) has identified solar powered desalination units and improved rain catchment and water storage as longer-term mitigation measures against future droughts.
Tuvalu, a collection of far-flung atolls with a population of some 12,000, today began a three-week needs assessment of water, agriculture and health facilities. The most affected areas are the capital city of Funafuti, as well as Nukulaelae and Nanumaga. Australia is covering the fuel costs for the assessment of eight outer islands.
Also affected by the severe drought are Kiribati, with over 112,000 people, the Cook Islands, a self-governing democracy in free association with New Zealand with a population of about 12,000, and Tokelau, a New Zealand territory with about 1,500 inhabitants.
“The critical low levels of freshwater in Tuvalu and Tokelau are just further wake-up calls about the vulnerability of SIDS [small island developing States] to the threats posed by increasing demands on natural resources and development practices that are not sufficiently in tune with these emerging risks,” Mr. Harding said.
“Small island States such as Tuvalu and Tokelau have access to a finite amount of water, mainly from groundwater and rainfall. Managing these resources in the face of increased and diverse demand is a challenge that authorities now face on a daily basis.”
Tuvalu and Tokelau have declared a state of emergency and are receiving emergency assistance from the UN Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, and Australia, New Zealand and the United States, including freshwater, water tanks, portable desalination units and personnel to operate the additional units and fix existing ones.
Many SIDS used the pulpit offered by the General Assembly’s annual general debate last month to call on the world to pay greater attention to their vulnerability to climate change, warning that the international community was not moving quickly enough to either mitigate the effects of the change or support the poorest countries as they tried to adapt. They stressed that sustainable development would not be possible as rising sea levels threatened to swamp them.


posted by one of our reader Viravanalluran 

chennai - Showers started over S.central of City has moved S-S-W and now 12:45pm has crossed Tambaram and still moving S-S-W

RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia No Rain in TNagar, chennai 12:00 pm

RT @vijaysraman: @weatherofindia No Rain in TNagar, chennai 12:00 pm

chennai - heavy rain now 11:58am over Pallavaram zone

chennai - heavy rain now 11:58am over Pallavaram zone

chennai - Sharp showers now 11:52am over Pallavaram zone

chennai - sharp showers again over S.central City now 11:47am

chennai - sharp showers again over S.central City now 11:47am

RT @raaga_suresh: @msriniva I think Kerala, especially Wynad, has got decent amount of rain this time. Trip was good. Will post photos soon.

RT @ranganaathan: Sudden downpour in T-Nagar, this will still further reduce voting @weatherofindia (11:05am)