Cyclone "Thane" - NO sign of weakening yet! In striking distance 180km East of Pondicherry!

Position, 3:30pm:: 11:48:01 N and 81:34:20 E
Winds :: up to 125 km/hr
Pressure :: 982mb
Showing NO sign of weakening yet, but expected to weaken from midnight!
Continue to track west towards Pondicherry, now located around 190km East of Pondicherry.
Chennai will have to bear up to 80% of the Cyclones fury !
Extreme heavy rains with Wind gusts up to 100 km/hr will start along Chennai to Pondicherry coast from 6pm.


Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
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Latest Radar image, 4pm
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One can see the EYE of Cyclone Thane between 150km and 200km

IMD warning, 1:30pm
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Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Red Message

The very severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal moved westward and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 29^thDecember 2011 near latitude 12.0⁰N and longitude 82.0⁰E, about 220 km east of Puducherry, 200 km southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 400 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around early morning of 30^th December 2011.

JTWC warning, 2:30pm
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290900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 81.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 135 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED FURTHER WITH A 15-NM EYE. 
A 290245Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO 
THE CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THERE IS GOOD 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE VISIBLE EYE. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 
KNOTS. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR 
TAU 12, AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER INDIA BY TAU 36. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF WBAR, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM 
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 22 FEET.

Cyclone "Thane" - Slowly crawling W-S-W ! Now Pondicherry and Cuddalore coast is the target!

Position, 8:30am :: 11:53:59 N and 82:18:00 E
Winds :: reaching upto 120 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 982mb
* Still a category 1 cyclone.
* 300 km away from Pondicherry coast.
* Chennai - will miss the FULL grunt of the system.
* Showers and winds to increase after 1pm ALL along N, central Tamilnadu coast.

Latest Satellite IR shot, 8am
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30am
---------------------------------------------------------------------

290300Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 82.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY 
FROM CHENNAI, INDIA, A RECENT SATELLITE FIX FROM PGTW, AND A 282221Z 
SSMI IMAGE. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 75 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH 
DVORAK T-NUMBER VALUES FROM THREE REPORTING AGENCIES RANGING FROM 65 
TO 77 KNOTS. THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ALONG THE WESTERN AND 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) EVIDENT IN THE 282212Z SSMI IMAGE. RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA 
SHOWS A SYMMETRIC LOW TO MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE APPROXIMATELY 40 NM 
IN DIAMETER. TC 06B CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH OF 
THE CYCLONE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD UNTIL MAKING 
LANDFALL JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24. THE CYCLONE LIES TO THE WEST OF AN 
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL, 
WITH FAVORABLE BUT DECREASING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. THE CYCLONE IS ALSO MOVING OVER WATERS WITH LOWER HEAT 
CONTENT THAT SHOULD, ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 
DECREASING OUTFLOW, INDUCE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER 
LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH ROUGH TERRAIN WELL INLAND FROM THE 
RELATIVELY FLAT COASTAL AREA WILL LEAD TO STEADY DISSIPATION. ASIDE 
FROM THE WEBER BAROTROPIC MODEL, WHICH TRACKS THE CYCLONE POLEWARD 
INTO THE STEERING RIDGE, AND THE UK MET OFFICE MODEL, WHICH HOLDS 
THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK IN BOTH THE ANALYSIS AND FORECAST AND DEPICTS AN 
ERRONEOUS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, THE NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 22 FEET.

IMD warning, 7:30am
------------------------------------------------------------

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm THANE over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message

The very severe cyclonic storm THANE over southwest Bay of Bengal moved west-southwestward and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 29^th December 2011 near latitude 12.3⁰N and longitude 83.0⁰E, about 300 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu) and 480 km north-northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka). The system is likely to move westwards and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Cyclone "Thane" - Very severe Cyclone now and Chennai may miss the direct hit!

Position, 8pm :: 12:33:07 N and 84:13:30 E
Winds :: 125 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 981mb
Latest track and projected path suggests that Chennai may miss a direct hit, but Pondicherry is in line of fire!
Very severe cyclone now, and will make landfall with Cyclone strength.

Latest satellite IR shot, 8pm
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JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
----------------------------------------------------------------------

281500Z POSITION NEAR 12.0N 83.7E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. A 281208Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS AN IMPROVED, THOUGH 
ASYMMETRICAL EYEWALL WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE 
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS IS DUE TO WEAK, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR (VWS). OVERALL, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT HAS IMPROVED WITH 
DECREASING VWS AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND, BASED ON THE SSMIS 
IMAGE, THE SYSTEM IS NOW VERTICALLY ALIGNED. THERE IS HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE IN THE SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED 
TO 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM KNES AND 
PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED 
TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING QUICKLY AND 
PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING 
THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE 
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT 
AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD 
INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS 
THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD 
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BUT COULD 
INTENSIFY AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RELIABLE 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE PEAKS THE INTENSITY AT 75-80 KNOTS AND MAINTAINS 
THIS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, TC 06B WILL BEGIN TO 
WEAKEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND AND SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING WILL 
OCCUR THEREAFTER WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS OVER ROUGH TERRAIN. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
281200Z IS 22 FEET.

IMD warning, 7:30pm
-----------------------------------------------------------

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message.

The severe cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest Bay of Bengal moved further westward, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 84.5⁰E, about 450 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 550 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 900 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-westwards, intensify further during next 12 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu coast between Nagapattinam and Chennai, close to Puducherry around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall.

Chennai wind speeds above 0.3km height above sea level has picked up considerably, clocking up to 65 km/Hr. Soon ground winds will also pick-up strength.

Cyclone "Thane" - Intensified now! and tracking West!

Position, 3pm :: 12:03:00 N , 84:42:09 E
Winds :: 95 Km/hr
Pressure :: 991mb
Now COLA GFS model also agrees to near Chennai landfall on early hrs of 30-Dec as a Cyclone.
Chennai is experiencing Stiff winds from N-N-W for the past 1hr.
IMD expects that "probability of slight weakening before landfall"

Latest satellite IR shot, 3pm
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IMD warning, 1:30pm
----------------------------------------------------

Sub : Cyclonic Storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone Warning for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Orange Message

The cyclonic storm 'THANE' over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal moved westwards and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 85.0⁰E, about 500 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 600 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 800 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify further during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore, close to south of Chennai around morning of 30^th December 2011. However, as the cyclonic storm will come further close to coast after 24 hours, there is probability of slight weakening before landfall

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

280900Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 84.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL AND INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS 
CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS DESPITE PERSISTENT 
MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS), EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THIS 
IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY DUE TO THE GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW. A 280256Z 
SSMIS IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A MICROWAVE EYE 
FEATURE AND SYMMETRIC EYEWALL, ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT FRAGMENTED. THE 
SSMIS IMAGE, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS TILTED SLIGHTLY 
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM 
THE SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 06B IS TRACKING 
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD UNTIL 
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 36. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN 
BAY OF BENGAL IS FILLING AND PROPAGATING EASTWARD WITH ZONAL FLOW 
EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALLOWING THE STR TO STRENGTHEN AND MAINTAIN THE 
WESTWARD STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBSEQUENTLY MODEL 
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK, 
ESPECIALLY GFS WHICH HAD INDICATED A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND IS NOW 
WESTWARD. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN UNREALISTIC 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BUT HAD PREVIOUSLY INDICATED A RE-CURVE 
SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY TO A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS WITH MODERATE VWS OFFSET BY THE GOOD OUTFLOW. 
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 21 FEET.

Cyclone "Thane" - Slowly Moving W-N-W and intensifying !!

Position, 7:30am :: 12:36:21 N , 85:21:06 E
Pressure :: 991mb
Winds :: 95 Km/Hr
Chennai may get a direct hit on early hrs of 30-Dec, but the system may be a Deep Depression at the time of landfall !! Next 24hrs will decide the strength.


Latest satellite IR shot,
-----------------------------------------------------------

IMD warning, 7:30am
-----------------------------------------------------------

 Cyclonic Storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm "THANE" over southwest and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary and lay centered at 0530 hrs IST of today, the 28^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 86.0⁰E, about 600 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 700 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar Island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards slowly, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coasts between Cuddalore and Nellore around morning of 30^th December 2011.

JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30am
--------------------------------------------------------------
272100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 85.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
CONVECTION DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING AROUND A BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 271419Z 37 GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS A 
CONCENTRIC AND WELL-ORGANIZED LLCC, WITH THE MAJORITY OF DEEP 
CONVECTION OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS INDICATE THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE SYSTEM IS SEPARATING FROM VIGOROUS WESTERLIES ON THE EQUATORIAL 
SIDE, WHICH MAY LIMIT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE WEAKENING EFFECTS OF SHEAR ARE BEING 
COMPENSATED BY VIGOROUS POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON A COMBINATION OF A DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW 
AND THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE. TC 06B IS UNDERNEATH THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE IN A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
ESTIMATED AT 15 KNOTS. ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 26 
TO 27 DEGREES. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER 
MYANMAR IS DRIVING TC 06B WESTWARD. THERE IS A MILD WEAKNESS IN THE 
RIDGE OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT, AND GFS IS SHOWING AN 
EXAGGERATED POLEWARD MOVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO THAT WEAKNESS. OTHER 
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN STEERING THE STORM WESTWARD TO MAKE 
LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI, WITH INCREASING SHEAR ALONG TRACK BRINGING 
ABOUT A WEAKEING TREND PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE TRACK FORECAST STAYS 
SOUTH OF CONSENSUS IN ORDER TO COMPENSATE FOR THE POLEWARD TRACKS OF 
GFS AND WBAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 20 FEET.

Cyclone "Thane" - Moving W-N-W, and will intensify to Severe Cyclone in 12hrs

Position, 9pm ::  Lat : 12:19:01 N Lon : 86:15:13 E
Winds :: 90 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 993mb
Tonight it'll intensify further to Severe Cyclone and continue to crawl W-N-W or West


Latest satellite IR shot, 9pm
---------------------------------------------------------

JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30pm
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 86.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 375 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE 
CENTER; HOWEVER, BASED ON A 271221Z SSMIS IMAGE, THE LLCC IS BROAD 
AND REMAINS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO LIGHT 
TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
TC 06B IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE BULK OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTWARD TRACK. GFS HAS TRENDED TO A 
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS AND IS ON THE 
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER 
WITH AN UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. THE JTWC 
FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF, GFDN, UKMO AND NOGAPS SOLUTIONS AND IS 
POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR. TC O6B IS 
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD 
OVERALL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE 
INDIAN COAST. NEAR TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO 
LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 17 
FEET. 

IMD warning, 7pm
---------------------------------------------------------

 Cyclonic Storm THANE over southeast and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal:-Cyclone alert for north Tamilnadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast : Yellow Message

The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of today, the 27^th December 2011 near latitude 12.5⁰N and longitude 86.5⁰E, about 650 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 700 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 670 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI - Remarks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENTAL FEATURES, THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS ABOUT 27-28 DEG. C. OVER THE REGION. IT IS RELATIVELY LESS TOWARDS TAMIL NADU AND SRI LANKA COAST BECOMING 26-27 DEG. C. THE OCEAN THERMAL ENERGY IS 50 - 80 KJ/CM SQUARE AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE. IT IS 50-80 KJ/CM SQUARE TO THE WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST OF SYSTEM AND LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM SQUARE NEAR TAMILNADU AND NORTH SRILANKA COAST. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION INDEX CURRENTLY LIES OVER PHASE 5. AS PER STATISTICAL AND NWP MODEL PREDICTIONS, IT IS EXPECTED TO LIE IN PHASE 5 DURING NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE PHASE 5 IS FAVOURABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION, AS PER OUR PAST STUDIES. THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LIES ALONG 15 DEG. N AND HENCE HELPS IN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AS WELL AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY CHANGE DURING PAST SIX HOURS. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 200 AND 850 HPA LEVELS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WIND SHEAR DURING PAST 24 HRS. CONSIDERING THE NWP MODEL GUIDANCE, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM BY NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER THEY SUGGEST SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. WITH RESPECT TO TRACK, MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD MOVEMENT. A FEW MODELS SUGGEST NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD/ NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NWP MODELS OF FIRST CATEGORY AND SYNOPTIC GUIDANCE.

Cyclone "Thane" - Now moving West !! Expected to intensify into Severe Cyclone !

Position, 1:30pm :: 12:27:41 N , 86:30:02 E
Pressure :: 994mb
Latest ADT readings suggest that "Thane" is moving WEST. Chennai is the target!!


Latest satellite IR shot, 1pm
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

IMD warning, 1:30pm
----------------------------------------------------
The cyclonic storm â€˜THANE’ over southeast Bay of Bengal remained practically stationary during past 3 hours and lay centered at 1130 hrs IST of today, the 27^th December 2011 near latitude 12.0⁰N and longitude 87.0.⁰E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.


JTWC warning and projected path, 2:30pm
-----------------------------------------------------------------

270900Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 86.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER; HOWEVER, THE 
LLCC IS PARTIALLY-EXPOSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION 
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE, EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (A 
270717Z AMSU IMAGE HINTS AT POSSIBLE TILT IN THE SYSTEM). DESPITE 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
POSITION DUE TO THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC AS DEPICTED IN A 
270327Z ASCAT IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK 
ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 06B IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK INCREASINGLY WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP 
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH. MODEL 
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE 
TIMING OF THE WESTWARD TURN. WBAR REMAINS THE SOLE OUTLIER WITH AN 
UNREALISTIC RAPID RE-CURVE TRACK INTO BANGLADESH. TC O6B IS EXPECTED 
TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO GOOD OVERALL 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE INDIAN 
COAST. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND 
INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 17 FEET. 

Cyclone "Thane" - most models point to near Chennai landfall !!

Position, 12:30pm :: 12:57:08 N , 86:53:43 E
Winds :: 90 km/Hr
Pressure :: 994mb


Latest satellite IR shot, 12pm
-----------------------------------------------------

JTWC warning and projected path, 8:30am
--------------------------------------------------------------

270300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 87.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06B (THANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST 
OF CHENNAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 262252Z SSMI 
IMAGE SHOWING A DISTINCT CENTER FEATURE AND AN AVERAGE OF INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND DEMS RANGING FROM 35 TO 55 KNOTS. 
RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION 
PERSISTING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE 
CYCLONE LIES JUST TO THE SOUTH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN 
AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL 
TOWARD THE BASED OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, 
HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TURN 
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, 
WHICH IS EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IN THE WAKE 
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 06B IS EXPECTED TO 
SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
AND MODERATE OCEAN CONTENT VIE WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. THEREAFTER, DECREASING POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND PERSISTENT 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL HALT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND LEAD TO 
WEAKENING BY TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CHENNAI JUST 
AFTER TAU 72 THEN DISSIPATE INLAND BY TAU 96. THE CURRENT FORECAST 
LIES EQUATORWARD OF AND SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NUMERICAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS, WHICH IS BEING SKEWED POLEWARD BY WBAR - WHICH DEPICTS AN 
ERRONEOUS RECURVATURE TO THE NORTHEAST - AND GFDN AND EGRR - BOTH OF 
WHICH HOLD THE SYSTEM TOO WEAK AND STEER THE CYCLONE EQUATORWARD 
WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z 
IS 14 FEET.

IMD warning, 10:30am
------------------------------------------------
The cyclonic storm THANE over southeast Bay of Bengal moved northwestwards and lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of today, the 27^thDecember 2011 near latitude 12.0⁰N and longitude 87.0.⁰E, about 750 km east-southeast of Chennai (Tamilnadu), 750 km northeast of Trincomalee (Srilanka) and 600 km west-northwest of Port Blair (Andaman & Nicobar island). The system is likely to move west-northwestwards, intensify into a severe cyclonic storm during next 24 hrs and cross north Tamil Nadu and south Andhra Pradesh coast between Cuddalore and Nellore by morning of 30^th December 2011.

Under the influence of this system, rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 24 hours. Rainfall at most places with isolated heavy rainfall is likely to commence over north coastal Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south coastal Andhra Pradesh from 28^th December 2011 night onwards.

Squally wind speed of 45-55 kmph is likely to prevail along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and squally winds speed reaching 45-55 kmph likely to commence along and off north Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and south Andhra Pradesh coasts from 28^th December night onwards.

Sea condition will be high to very high around the system centre. Sea condition will be rough to very rough along and off Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 12 hours and will be rough to very rough from along and off Tamil Nadu and Puducherry coast from 28^th December night onwards

Fishermen along Andaman & Nicobar Islands are advised not to venture into sea during next 12 hours and fishermen along Tamil Nadu, Puducherry & south Andhra Pradesh coast, who are out at sea are advised to return to the coast.

IMD GFS model prediction
--------------------------------------------
Suggests a near Chennai landfall as a Depression on 30-Dec

"92B" - Will it intensify to Depression and approach Tamilnadu coast ??

Position :: 8.9 N and 86.2 E
Wind :: 45 km/Hr
Pressure :: 1003 mb


JTWC warning
-------------------------------------------------------------

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 87.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 86.0E, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF 
COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS 
LARGE FORMATIVE BANDING MOSTLY TO THE NORTH OF AN ILL-DEFINED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE MAIN CONVECTION IS BEING DISPLACED TO 
THE NORTH DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. HOWEVER, ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

Latest satellite IR shot, 2:30pm
------------------------------------------------------

Rainrate
-------------------------

COLA Model
----------------------------------------------
COLA maintains a landfall over Central Tamilnadu coast on 28-Dec as a Depression.

IMD GFS
--------------------------------------------
Still predicts a S. Tamilnadu landfall as a weak LOW pressure system on 29-Dec.

"05A" - to move N-W, intensify and die over Sea !

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
-----------------------------

271500Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 71.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM NORTHWEST OF 
MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH THE 
SYSTEM IS STILL BEING SHEARED BY SOUTHEASTERLIES ALOFT, CONVECTION 
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS PERSISTENT AND DEEPENING. THE 
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. UPPER LEVEL 
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS DEPICTS TC 05A UNDER AN AREA OF DIFFLUENT 
SOUTHEASTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF 
THE SYSTEM BUT ALSO SHOWS EXCELLENT OUTFLOW OVER THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SITUATED UNDER THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE STORM. 
THE ANTICYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF INDIA 
AND WILL RETROGRADE TO JUST NORTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA DURING THE NEXT 
72 HOURS. TC 05A WILL STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL EASE AS THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER MOVES CLOSER TO THE RIDGE AXIS. THE REDUCED SHEAR 
WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY NEAR TAU 48. BEYOND 19 
DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE 
DRAMATICALLY AND THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY. THERE IS 
CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. 
NOGAPS AND GFS INDICATE THE STORM WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO 
CREST THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO PAKISTAN AS A LOW-GRADE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE, BUT GFDN, ECMWF, AND EGRR TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE 
SOUTHEAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH 
ARABIAN SEA. LONG RANGE PROGS DO NOT INDICATE A STRONG ENOUGH RIDGE 
OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FORCE THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST, SO THE LONG 
RANGE FORECAST STAYS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THE HIGH VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA WILL 
MAKE IT VERY UNLIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH 
TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE THE 
FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS BUT DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM OVER 
WATER NEAR 20 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 16 FEET.

Latest Satellite IR shot of "05A"

------------------------------------------------------

JTWC projected path
---------------------------------

IMD & COLA GFS prediction
--------------------------------------------
IMD GFS predicts that "05A" will fizzle out over N-Central Arabian sea on 1-Dec-2011.

But COLA GFS predicts that the system make weaken and crash over Pakistan, Gujarat coast on 1-Dec-2011.

Meanwhile N-E monsoon will be active along entire Tamilnadu coast till Tuesday, 29-Nov-2011

"98B" - is now a Cyclone "05A" over S-E Arabian sea

Position :: 8.2 N and 76 E
Wind :: up to 60 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
---------------------------------

260300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 75.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTH OF 
COCHIN, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 
6 HOURS. MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE 
BANDING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAVE FURTHER 
CONSOLIDATED. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A 252127Z 
AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE AND VALIDATED BY A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM 
SOUTHWESTERN INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY DVORAK 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND BY RECENT SCATTEROMETRY 
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.  UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS TC 05B IS 
SITUATED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ANTICYCLONE, WITH 
EXCELLENT RADIAL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES 
ARE HIGH (28-29 DEGREES CELSIUS).  NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN 
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND TAKES THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BEFORE 
RECURVING IT TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE LATER TAUS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS 
SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN RECURVATURE WILL OCCUR. THIS FORECAST 
TRACK IS SLIGHTLY WEST OF CONSENSUS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, 
NAVMARFCSTCEN 250751Z NOV 11 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 
(WTIO21 PGTW 250800 ) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 
11 FEET. 

JTWC projected path 
--------------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot
----------------------------------

Meanwhile North East monsoon will be Very active along entire Tamilnadu coast. Heavy rain forecast for entire Tamilnadu coast for another 2 days.

"98B" - Having signs of a Cyclone ! and moving N-W

Now its a "well marked low"
Position :: 4.9 N and 78.3 E
Pressure :: 1001 mb
Wind :: 30 to 60 Km/Hr

JTWC warning
------------------------------------

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 4.1N 79.3E TO 10.4N 72.8E WITH-
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS-
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
250730Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 4.9N
78.3E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 
79.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 78.3E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP PERIPHERAL CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVERGING NORTHERLIES INTO WESTERLIES. A 250431Z ASCAT IMAGE 
INDICATES 25 KNOT EASTERLIES POLEWARD OF 25-30 KNOT WESTERLIES NEAR 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 250253Z 37 GHZ SSMIS 
IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING IN THE LOWER LEVEL CONVECTIVE 
STRUCTURE WITH A LARGE, SOMEWHAT LINEAR, CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE 
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
THE LLCC IS UNDER A POINT SOURCE OF DIVERGENCE WITH WEAK (05-10 
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. DUE TO THE 25-30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC, 
EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND OUTFLOW, AND ACTIVE PHASE OF 
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IN THE REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS HIGH.

IMD warning
----------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot, 
----------------------------------------

JTWC projected path
----------------------------------

Model prediction
------------------------------------
By morning of 26-Nov.. the system is expected to enter into S-E corner of Arabian sea just S-W of Trivandrum and by morning of 27-Nov.. it's expected to move N-W further into Arabian sea and intensify !

Heavy rain to continue all along Tamilnadu coast till evening of 27-Nov-2011.

"98B" - Not to become as Cyclone !

Position :: 3.0 N and 82.2 E
Pressure :: 1008mb


JTWC warning
------------------------------

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 89.5E, 
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A DISTURBED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA.  THIS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL IN SURFACE ANALYSIS. UPPER 
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL POCKET OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE 
AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE 29-30 DEGREES 
CELSIUS.  GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING THIS 
CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.

Latest Satellite IR shot of system
--------------------------------------------------

Latest GFS model predicts that the system will travel WEST towards S. Srilanka on evening of 24-Nov. Then it'll move W-N-W into mouth of Gulf Mannar on 25-Nov and touch S.Tip of Tamilnadu and move into Arabian sea on evening of 26-Nov.

Heavy rain forecast for central, N.coastal Tamilnadu, Chennai and Kanyakumari district of Tamilnadu from 25-Nov to 28-Nov.

Cyclone "04A" -- slowly nearing Oman coast !! and may dissipate over Sea !

Position :: 15.6 N , 58.5 E
Wind :: 65 Km/Hr
Pressure :: 996mb

JTWC warning
-------------------------

TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM SOUTH OF MUSCAT, 
OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.  
ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE 
IMPACTED BY SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30 KNOTS).  AS A 
RESULT, THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED AND SHOWS 
SIGNS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTION CENTER (LLCC) IS BECOMING 
EXPOSED.  UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS FAVORABLE, HOWEVER 
TRANSVERSE BANDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM IS EVIDENCE OF THE STRONG 
SHEAR.  THE POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON 090530Z PGTW DVORAK 
FIX.  THE SYSTEM IS IN BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  WHILE THE GENERAL 
NORTHWARD MOTION APPEARS TO BE CONTROLLED BY THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE 
EAST, NORTHERLY FLOW FROM THE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SINAI PENINSULA 
IS COUNTERING THIS MOTION. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
MOVE NORTHWARD VERY SLOWLY.  AS THE EASTERN ANTICYCLONE BUILDS 
ACROSS THE AREA, TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY WESTWARD 
BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER WATER BY TAU 36.  CURRENT NUMERICAL GUIDANCE 
IS SPLIT BETWEEN WHICH OF THE ANTICYCLONES WILL STEER THE SYSTEM, 
WITH HALF OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING NORTHERLY TRACKS AND THE OTHER 
HALF WITH WESTERLY TRACKS.  HOWEVER, NONE OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES 
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS 
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 11 FEET.

Latest satellite IR shot
--------------------------------------

Cyclone "04A" -- nearing South Oman coast !!

Position :: 13.9 N and 59 E
Wind :: 65 km/H
Pressure :: 996mb


JTWC warning
------------------------------

POSITION NEAR 13.9N 58.8E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04A, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 465 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
CAPE GUARDAFU, SOMALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT IS SLIGHTLY
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE 080530Z PGTW DVORAK
FIX. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE IS UNDER A RIDGE
AXIS IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOWS EXCELLENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. 04A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN ON A MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION AFTER
TAU 24 AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD.
CONCURRENTLY, THE VWS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM
THE RIDGE AXIS, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN BEFORE IT
MAKES LANDFALL AT THE HORN OF AFRICA AFTER TAU 72. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT WITH GFS AS THE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIER. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF MODEL
CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS'S UNLIKELY INTRUSION INTO THE RIDGE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 11 FEET.

JTWC projected path
--------------------------------------

Latest satellite IR shot
-----------------------------------

IMD GFS models suggest that it'll move towards N-N-W and touch Oman coast and then eventually die in that same zone