With a strong onset of monsoon having established over Kerala and the Bay of Bengal, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of even busier weather unfolding over most of the impacted areas.
A weather warning issued on Monday morning said that isolated heavy rainfall would be unleashed over Lakshadweep and Kerala until Wednesday.
A warning issued for the same period for east and northeast India where the pre-monsoon is still playing out said that isolated thunder squalls would break out over the Northeastern states, West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.
And to complete the picture, yet another of a westerly disturbances entering northwest India from across the border could spark isolated dust storms or thunderstorms over Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan and west Uttar Pradesh.
Along with this, some hostile heating of the land could also be on view over Pakistan and adjoining northwest India, helping set the north-south pressure gradient for the monsoon current to glide on.
As expected, southeast Arabian Sea has tossed up an upper air cyclonic circulation off Kerala coast, the IMD said. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting sees the system anchoring the monsoon flows and helping the cause of the progress of rains along the coast to the north.
The system could descend into lower heights and set up a low-pressure area off coastal Karnataka where the ocean water temperatures are well above 30 degree Celsius. In comparison, the seas off Kerala to just south are cooler.
But an anti-cyclone let loose by the intervening westerly system could scare away the ‘low’ from approaching India coast, and the southeasterlies associated with the anti-cyclone could drive the same
out into central Arabian Sea.
Still international models indicate the monsoon system conducting itself well during the onset phase. The International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University is vouching for a sustained strong band of convection holding itself up across southeast Arabian Sea and into Bay of Bengal from southwest to northeast.
Satellite picture early on Monday showed convective (rain-bearing) clouds rising over parts of east Uttar Pradesh, Manipur, south Maharashtra, coastal Karnataka, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Lakshadweep, east-central and southeast Bay of Bengal, south Andaman Sea and central and southeast Arabian Sea.
A short-term forecast said that the western disturbance could bring with it isolated rain or thundershowers over western Himalayas and adjoining plains of northwest India until Wednesday and increase thereafter.
An extended outlook valid until Saturday spoke about the possibility of widespread rain or thundershowers over extreme south peninsula, Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States and adjoining east India. Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers accompanied with isolated thunder squalls would occur over northwest India
