Friday, July 09, 2010


The flood fury in Punjab has been destructive.Ambala, Patiala and Sangrur rural districts to come under the spate of flood waters.Ambala recieved 600 mms of rain in 3 days consecutive, and Patiala getting 353 mms, 242 in excess of the normal. In Patiala where 15 villages have been submerged in water and paddy crop in 80,000 acres has been washed
away.

As the UAC now lies over
U.P.(remnant of the low), the axis of monsoon axis has shifted northwestwards and now passes through Anupgarh, Churu, Lucknow, Patna, Bardwan, Canning and thence south-eastwards to east central Bay of Bengal.Well, almost into a mini break monsoon situation, as easterlies are getting replaced by westerlies over Indo-gangetic plains.

A decrease in the interiors of the peninsula, M.P.and Gujarat seem iminent in the next few days. There is a possibilities of rain increasing in the interiors of the peninsula from the 13th. when the axis may shift south.
We will have to anticipate a low in the bay to get revivals of rain along the eastern coast.

Moderate rainfall should continue along the axis, that is parts of U.P,Uttaranchal, certain areas of northern-eastern M.P. and regions of H.P.till 13th. July, the date from when ECMWF shows the axis shifting south.
Gujarat rains will reduce considerably from 12th, when the off shore trough can be expected to move away from the Gujarat coast.
But, the off shore trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persists, keeping up hopes for some rains to continue along the west coast of India.In fact, models show the trough "reving up" a bit on Monday, around the North Konkan area.

Mumbai:After a wettish Friday night, Saturday will be a day of passing showers, with with even a few brighter intervals. On Sunday, expect the rains to increase from night (with thunder) into Monday. saturday rains will be about 25 mms, but Sunday, may be more rainy and the city may get 35-40 mms, with about 40 mms on Monday. tuesday will see passing showers again, with some bright intervals and 30 mms of rain.
Mumbai Colaba total rain this monsoon is 1350 mms till Friday evening. In 2009, end of August total was 1242 mms.

Dharavi - the wettest place in Mumbai ???

July 9th - variation of 6 cm to the next highest
---------
Dharavi - 15 cm
Santacruz - 9 cm
Colaba - 5 cm
Thane - 5 cm


July 8th - variation of 7 cm to the next highest
---------
Dharavi - 16 cm
Colaba - 9 cm
Vihar - 7 cm
Santacruz - 5 cm
Thane - 5 cm


July 4th - variation of 24 cm to the next highest
---------
Dharavi - 39 cm
Colaba - 15 cm
Santacruz - 12 cm
RT @myworldnews: [GUK] Monsoon arrives in India: Annual rainy season brings heavy downpours to the subcontinent .. http://bit.ly/bNTMdF
Chennai - A passing shower for S and S-W suburbs only... now 5:17pm clear again.
RT @SABHARISH: Its gonna RAIN in Chennai:-) (4:30pm)
Chennai - As expected a sharp shower is now 4:46pm approaching W. suburbs from W-S-W.
Delhi recovers after WednesdayĆ¢€™s monsoon fury ... http://ow.ly/298qZ
3:30pm, More showers have popped up over N. Madhyapradesh, central and E. Rajasthan and Over Bihar... http://ow.ly/i/2vow
3:30pm, Showers again over S. Andhra and S. Karnataka ... http://ow.ly/i/2vow
3:30pm, Showers over S. West and N.central Tamilnadu .. http://ow.ly/i/2vow
Tirunelveli - Squally weather in town .. at 2pm.. with some showers.
RT @candryjohnson: Monsoon is here, take care of your tummy http://bit.ly/aqdzaZ
NO BREAK-MONSOON predicted till 17-Jul ... http://ow.ly/295MM
Arabian sea monsoon will revive around 18-Jul ... http://ow.ly/295LN

Monsoon trough may shift north, weaken

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said in its update on Thursday that the monsoon trough would shift northwards close to the foothills of the Himalayas over the next two days.
Rains would now be confined to the foothills, which go to signal yet another weakening trend in the monsoon proving forecasts made by most international agencies.
Some models also fear that a likely revival of Arabian Sea flows around July 18 may have to contend with a brewing cyclone in Northwest Pacific.
Forecasts for the short term indicate the possibility of rain-stopping northwesterly flows returning in full force to northwest India – and along with them, the hot climes across the border from Pakistan and West Asia.
Monsoonal flows over the Arabian Sea have already started weakening, according to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on Thursday.
The IMD weather charts showed rain-bearing monsoon southwesterlies confined to just along the Konkan-Goa coast on Thursday.
Towards the south, these flows were northwesterlies going around a high-pressure cell over southwest Arabian Sea.
Going forward into the next week, the IMD charts showed a barrage of westerly to northwesterly flows establishing their presence across the landmass.
According to the ECMWF, it would take another 10 days for the southwesterly flows to rebuild in strength over the Arabian Sea.

NO BREAK-MONSOON?
But a ‘break-monsoon' situation, or mid-season drought conditions, may likely be averted since parts of the west coast are shown to continue to receive varying amounts of rainfall, as per forecasts by US National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This is despite some tell-tale features – a westerly trough making a presence and an anti-cyclone from the Arabian deserts poking its nose into central India – establishing themselves, albeit briefly, during the period.
As is the usual case when the monsoon goes into a lull after having covered the whole country, rains would now be confined to the area around the Himalayan foothills.
The IMD has said that scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during next 24 hours, before increasing thereafter.
These regions have not seen any significant rain despite the monsoon being declared as having covered the whole country 10 days ahead of normal.

PACIFIC CYCLONE
Extended forecast until July 13 (Tuesday next), said that widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls would occur over Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.
Meanwhile, the expected revival of Arabian Sea flows around July 18 may also coincide with the formation of a tropical cyclone in the Northwest Pacific, the ECMWF said.
This possibility has been highlighted by the Climate Prediction Centre of the US National Weather Services as well.
Were this to pan put out in reality, a part of the reviving monsoon flows cold could be spirited away by the brewing cyclone.
ECMWF has indicated this possibility wherein some flows are shown to steer themselves around the peninsular tip to be directed into the Bay of Bengal and onward into the South China Sea.
The IMD said in its update on Thursday that the offshore trough from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast persisted.
Forecast until Sunday said that fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the Northeastern States, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Gujarat State, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Lakshadweep, coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
Isolated rain or thundershowers are likely over Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand while being scattered over Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
That the rains may extend to the east and southeast coast is another pointer to the fact that the monsoon would be in a weak phase.
Chennai - Shower at 2pm OR Present cloud formation will clear and a shower possible after 5pm.
Chennai - With Early cloud formation from S-W and with early Sea breeze we can expect a shower today around 2pm.
Chennai - Touched a max of 32.3 C (11:36am) and now 12:19pm its 30.7 C.. due to good early cloud formation and early Sea breeze.
11am, Isolated shower seen over Central coastal Tamilnadu... http://ow.ly/i/2ve8
11am, South kerala is enjoying some clear skies... http://ow.ly/i/2ve8
RT @IndiaNews247: Malaria alert issued in Mumbai: It is an annual concern in Mumbai - with the monsoon come ... http://bit.ly/a5djz2
RT @kusharora: good morning its so humid in amritsar and still no signs of monsoon rain...
11am, Showers along Karnataka coast and upto central Kerala coast ... http://ow.ly/i/2ve8
RT @Monsoonexpress: A royal retreat in Rajasthan that's a real treat in the monsoon. Catch that story through the day on NDTV 24x7
Mumbai rainfall variation
---------------------------
Dharavi-16 cm while Colaba-9 cm, Vihar-7 cm, Santacruz & Thane-5 cm each again so much variations from the rainfall recorded in Dharavi