Sunday, October 13, 2013

Chennai - 6:07pm, Polichalur zone just had a 10min sharp shower .

Chennai - 5:10pm, 5 min drizzle over Polichalur zone

Phailin is now inland - What next ?

Analysis at 11:30pm shows that the Cyclone has moved inland almost 70% of the core.
Weakening seen, but still it's a category 3 storm, churning it's way into S-W,W Odisha.
Satellite IR at 11pm shows still the Cyclone has not lost its intensity, only the EYE of the system got disappeared.
The landfall was close to Vizagnagaram./ Dharmavaram.
The last (10pm) analysis of intensity when the system's center was over Sea.
      Pressure was around 949mb and winds was up to 200 kmph.

What next ?
During next 12hrs, Phailin will weaken and will be over S Odisha as a Cyclone.
After that the system is expected to track N-N-W into central,N Chatisgarh as Deep Depression.
By early hrs of Monday, the Depression will further weaken as Depression or well marked Low and move North into N Chatisgarh, E Madhyapradesh and pushing into S-E Uttarpradesh.
By Monday noon, Phailin will become as a low and expected to be over S-E Uttarpradesh.

As the Cyclone travels from S-coast Odisha to S-W,W Odisha and into Chatisgarh and into S-E Uttarpradesh... Heavy rain and winds expected over above mentioned zones from now and before Monday(14-Oct) evening.
Heavy rain expected over S,S-W Bengal, Jharkhand and central,N Chatisgarh before mid-noon of Sunday.
From noon of Sunday, Heavy rain also over E Madhyapradesh and pushing into S,S-E Uttarpradesh.
On Monday, Heavy rain expected over S,S-E,central Uttarpradesh and into W,S,central Bihar.

Tomorrow, Coastal, S Karnataka, N,N-E Tamilnadu and #Chennai also will get moderate showers.