Friday, August 13, 2010

7:30pm, Heavy showers over central, S.central and N-W Tamilnadu...
''The Valley of Flowers'' - National Park ...
Showers will increase along S-W coast (Kerala & Karnataka) from 16-Aug...
"World feeling the heat" ... 2010 is becoming the year of the heatwave ...
More showers for West & S-W coast from 15-Aug and a New N-W Bay low expected around 17-Aug...
Cloud burst over "Leh" Kashmir... report from IMD ... PDF ...

Monsoon showers bounty on AP

If drought was the problem for Andhra Pradesh farmers last year, this year, there can be no complaint on that count. But the recent heavy rains that is being witnessed of late is surely a source of worry.
The downpour caused by low-pressure has inundated crops on 44,000 hectares, including 28,000 hectares of cotton. “Officials have reported that flood waters might recede and that there may not be any crop losses,” Mr N Raghuveera Reddy, the Minister for Agriculture, said.
Farmers are also grappling with short supply and scarcity of fertilisers in different parts of the State. But Mr Reddy said the Government had set up a monitoring cell to ensure timely supply. “We estimate that the farmers need 11.2 million tonnes. We have made 12 mt of fertiliser ready,” he said.
Rainfall under the influence of the South-West monsoon has been better than the average rainfall after two years. In the last five weeks since June 6, the average rainfall registered in the State has been 396 mm against the normal of 317 mm, an ‘excess' of 25 per cent.
This is compared with 153 mm in 2009 and 311 mm rain fall the year before. All the major reservoirs in the State hold 609.27 tmc of water as against 507.53 tmc.
‘No Damage'
According to the latest information reaching the Agriculture Ministry, incessant rains across the State in the last few days due to low pressure did not have any adverse impact on crops. “We are hopeful that floods caused by last week rains will recede soon and cause no damage to the standing crops,” a senior official of the Ministry told Business Line.
Farmers in the Godavari delta were forced to stop sowing of paddy temporarily due to incessant rains last week. “Progress of monsoon rains helped accelerate the sowings of paddy, oilseeds and cotton to reach a peak. Maize is at knee-height stage, while groundnut is at vegetative-to-flowering stage and sugarcane is at cane development stage. Early kharif paddy is being taken up in Nellore district. Overall, the status of crops is satisfactory,” the official said.
Cropped area
As a result of abundant rains, the total sown area as on date is 59 lakh hectares (lh) as against the normal (to date) of 56 lh and 39.5 lh in 2009. The State grows crops to an extent of 78.23 lakh ha in a season. “The farmers have covered 75 per cent of the area. We expect that the remaining area will be covered in the next few days,” he said.
Coverage of crops such as cotton, groundnut, redgram, chillies and turmeric have either been normal or higher. Cotton has been sown on 16 lh as against 10.77 lh; groundnut on 12.57 lh (12 lh)' redgram on 5.13 lh (3.45 lh) and chillies on 0.38 lh (0.41 lh).
While paddy has been sown on 8 lh against 10 lh, maize on 4.13 l(4.70 lh) and sugarcane 1.77 lh (2.19 lh) were sown marginally lesser than the as-on-date averages. The officials, however, felt that the gaps would be covered in the next few days.

Unusually Intense Monsoon Rains

The first week of August 2010 brought extreme flooding and landslides to many parts of Asia. By August 11, floods in the Indus River basin had become Pakistan’s worst natural disaster to date, leaving more than 1,600 people dead and disrupting the lives of about 14 million people, reported Reuters. Across the border in northeast India, flash floods killed 185 with 400 still missing, reported BBC News. Floods in North Korea and northeast China buried farmland and destroyed homes, factories, railroads, and bridges. And in northwest China, rain triggered a massive landslide that left 702 dead with 1,042 missing, reported China’s state news agency, Xinhua. All of these disasters occurred as a result of unusually heavy monsoon rains, depicted in this image.
Made with data collected by NASA’s Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, the image shows rain rates (the intensity with which rain was falling) between August 1 and August 9, 2010, compared to average rain rates for the same period. Blue reveals areas where rain was much more intense than normal, while brown points to less intense rain.
Dark blue spots cover the regions of Pakistan, India, and China where the floods and landslides occurred. These regions received as much as 24 millimeters of rain per day above normal daily rainfall. A broad swath of very intense rain also covers Indonesia and parts of the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
All of this rain comes as part of the Asian Monsoon. The Asian Monsoon occurs because of the temperature difference between the Eurasian continent and the ocean. In the summer, the land warms much more than the ocean. Heated air over the land rises, and cool, humid air from the ocean moves in to replace it. As the humid air warms over the land, it too rises and the water condenses into rain.
Asia’s summer monsoon varies in intensity from year to year for a variety of reasons. One of the strongest influences on the Asian Monsoon is the El Niño–La Niña oscillation. During La Niña years, the Eastern Pacific is cooler than average, while the western Pacific Ocean (by Asia) is warmer. Air over the ocean is warmer, more buoyant, and more humid. It rises higher and forms more intense storms.
La Niña usually enhances the Asian Monsoon, and it may have been a factor in shaping the intense 2010 monsoon. In July 2010, La Niña conditions had developed. Ocean temperatures in the western Pacific were warmer than normal. The patterns of unusually heavy rain seen in this image are similar to rainfall patterns caused by La Niña.
Additional factors may also have influenced the 2010 monsoon rains. The northern Indian Ocean was also warmer than normal. In particular, waters off the coast of Pakistan (the Arabian Sea) were much warmer than normal in satellite-based sea surface temperature measurements taken in July 2010. These enhanced temperatures are indicative of a shorter-scale weather pattern that also enhances monsoon rains.

Continuing from Wednesday's blog, the axis of the monsoon did slip Northwards , albiet for a few days in the initial days of this week. the result:
A weakened monsoon monsoon with -26 % rainfall during the week ending Wednesday. Now, as anticipated, with the southern peninsula and adjoining east India posting significant deficit.

As expected...the North also did get its heavy rains (read about the Delhi flooding, with Delhi Ridge recording 104 mms in 12 hrs), and Northern
Bihar recieving heavy rains yesterday. Isolated thundershowers kept the central/northern peninsula wet. Map of actual rain on 12th.

And "lo" (pun intented), the axis is dragged down again.
As if a "kill joy", a fresh low appeared, and moved inland to reach Maharashtra's eastern end within a day, by Friday.The low, even though only at 1002 mb. is aptly supported aloft by stronger lows, precipitated good rains in its Eastern Quadrant. Remember, this low has clouding in its Eastern Quadrant.
This low, weakening,is expected to move north initially, and then a short distances north-west before fizzling out. And, simultaneously, the Eastern "block" of clouds ,will move accordingly. But, the movement will be fast, judging by the current speed, by the time you have read this, it must be over Rajasthan !
Rains will be moving out from North Maharashtra into East Gujarat into South Rajasthan.

But a new low is forecast in the bay around the 17th. Like the current low, its
movement/direction seems to be identical. At least seems so from this CMC
And the MJO is pushing in a fresh burst of south-westerlies into the west coast from around the 17th. of this month. South-Westerliy winds will bring rain onto the Kerala/Karnataka coast from the 17th. onwards for a couple of days. This rain will move up northwards along the coast, not inland !

Mumbai: Sharp rain showers , between sunny intervals, remind the citizens that the monsoon is not over and done with. In line with the "vagaries" estimate,Wednesday thru Friday, Mumbai had an average of 10-15 mms/day. And as stated above, the current low might just by-pass Mumbai of the heaviest rains.I would just about the Weekend forecast to a little increase in rain, maybe to about 25 -30 mms/day. Rain spells were short during the week, may be a bit longer during the weekend. The intensity may increase Monday onwards.The thunder ? Maybe ?

Chennai - Just now 5:50pm a sharp shower lashed Saidapet zone for 20 min.
World feeling the heat:

2010 is becoming the year of the heatwave, with record highs temperatures set in several countries.Several regions of the world are currently coping with severe weather-related events: flash floods and widespread flooding in large parts of Asia and parts of Central Europe while other regions are also affected: by heatwave and drought in Russian Federation, mudslides in China and severe droughts in sub-Saharan Africa. While a longer time range is required to establish whether an individual event is attributable to climate change,

The Monsoon activity in Pakistan and other countries in South-East Asia is aggravated by the la Niña phenomenon, now well established in the Pacific Ocean.The heatwave in the European part of the Russian Federation is associated with a persistent pressure ridge that appeared in June 2010. Initially, it was associated with the Azores high, but later was reinforced by a strong i
nflow of warm air from the Middle East.

Thousand of hectares of forest burned in the fires, leaving thousands homeless. For days, Moscow was shrouded in smog, and environmentalists raised fears that the blaze could release radioactive particles from areas contaminated in the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.
Wildfires have also swept through northern Portugal, killing two firefighters and destroying 18,000 hectares (44,500 acres) of forests and bushland since late July
The heatwaves have also been occurring in the US, where Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Washington, Baltimore and Trenton all documented their highest ever temperatures in July.

This June was also the hottest ever on record and 2010 is on course to be the warmest year since records began, according to separate data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration published last month.

Record highs have occurred in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine – the three nation
s at the centre of the eastern European heatwave which has lasted for more than three weeks –and also in Scandinavian Finland, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American countries.

Thanks to Max, from his site,we have a complete detail of The new National highs that made records in the countries,in 2010:

Puerto Salgar (Colombia) max. 42.2 New national record high for Colombia (recorded under standard conditions)
Honiara Henderson (Solomon Islands) max. 36.1 New national record high for Solomon Islands (recorded under standard conditions )
Myinmu (Myanmar) max. 46.5 New national record high for Myanmar
Myinmu (Myanmar) max. 47.2 New national record high for Myanmar
Mohenjo-daro (Pakistan) max. 53.5 New national record high for Pakistan
Abdaly (Kuwait) max. 52.6 New national record high for Kuwait
Basra (Iraq) max. 52 New national record high for Iraq
Jeddah Aiport (Saudi Arabia) max. 52 New national record high for Saudi Arabia
Faya (Chad) max. 47.6 New national record high for Chad (recorded under standard conditions)
Bilma (Niger) max. 48.2 New national record high for Niger
Dongola (Sudan) max. 49.7 New national record high for Sudan
Jaskul (Russia) max. 44 New national record high for Russia (international stations)
Doha Airport (Qatar) max. 50.4 New national record high for Qatar (in official stations)
Joensuu Airport Liperi (Finland) max. 37.2 New national record high for Finland
Lefkoniko (Cyprus) max. 46.6 New national record high for Cyprus
Gorki (Belarus) max. 38.7 New national record high for Belarus
omel (Belarus) max. 38.9 New national record high for Belarus
Lukhansk (Ukraine) max. 42 New national record high for Ukraine

However, there were a few with low records as well.
Havana Jose Marti Airport (Cuba) min. 3.7
Malaybalay (Philippines) min. 10
Hardap (Namibia) min. -8.1

26% below-normal rainfall last week

A weakened monsoon has delivered 26 per cent less rainfall during the week ending Wednesday with the southern peninsula joining East India to post significant deficit.
Marathwada (+73 per cent) and Telangana (+16 per cent) were the two exceptions and counted themselves among the 12 Met subdivisions to post excess or normal rainfall during the period under reference.

J&K in surplus
The Jammu and Kashmir sub-division, which witnessed a killer cloudburst over the Leh region during the week, also ended up with surplus rainfall (+56 per cent). The rest 24 Met sub-divisions, spread along the West Coast, South Peninsula, North-West and East India, recorded deficient of scanty rainfall, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) update said. Central and East-central India and extreme West India (Gujarat and West Rajasthan), too, stood out for moderate to exceptional gains during the period under reference.

Fresh ‘low'
However, a fresh low-pressure area persisting over Northwest and adjoining West-central Bay of Bengal on Thursday and an upper air cyclonic circulation over North Rajasthan and adjoining Haryana and Punjab are promising to bring a material change to the scenario.
While the ‘low' is forecast to take a west-northwest course to enter the coast, the upper circulation will combine with the resident monsoon trough along the Himalayan foothills to set up rains over disparate regions. Southeast, Central and East-central India, Northwest and parts of East India are expected to make significant gains during the six days ending on Monday, according to the International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University.

Southerly wave
The IRI saw wet weather enveloping Southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining Southwest Coast (Kerala) and extending into Tamil Nadu, South Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Rayalaseema during this period. It has forecast wet weather for parts of Northwest India also, including over north Madhya Pradesh; northeastern parts of east Rajasthan; Haryana; Punjab; Delhi; West Uttar Pradesh; Uttarakhand; Himachal Pradesh; and southern flanks of Jammu and Kashmir.Meanwhile, the IMD has warned of isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall for Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Haryana, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, South Coastal Orissa and North Andhra Pradesh for the next two days.

Widespread rains
In its update on Thursday, it said that the 24 hours ending Thursday afternoon saw widespread rainfall occur over Himachal Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Konkan and Goa. It was fairly widespread over the plains of Northwest India, sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and the Northeastern States.
Satellite pictures revealed the presence of convective (rain-bearing) clouds over parts of Central, East and northeast India, Andhra Pradesh, north interior Karnataka, interior Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, Lakshadweep, Central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.
Forecast until Sunday said widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over the western Himalayas and the 
Northeastern States.
Fairly widespread rain or thundershowers would occur over Central India and plains of Northwest India, Konkan, Goa, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Lakshadweep.
Scattered rain or thundershowers have been forecast over east Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand and gangetic West Bengal.

Pakistan : Flooding along the Lower Indus River

acquired August 8, 2010

acquired August 10, 2010

acquired August 12, 2010

A flood surge heading for Pakistan’s coast changed the appearance of the lower Indus River in just four days. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured these images on August 8, 2010 (top), August 10, 2010 (middle), and August 12, 2010 (bottom).
All three images use a combination of infrared and visible light to increase the contrast between water and land. Water appears in varying shades of blue. Vegetation is green, and bare ground is pinkish brown. Clouds range in color from pale blue-green to bright turquoise. A thin veil of clouds hangs over much of the region on August 12.
On August 8, even though the lower Indus has risen far above its typical levels, it still appears as a relatively thin braided stream south of Sukkur. On August 10, the river has widened south of the city, and on August 12, the Indus has risen even more. Compared to the previous two images, the water appears fairly light in color on August 12. This may result from the angle of sunlight or from cloud cover, but might also result from an increased sediment load in the water.
The BBC reported that the Sukkur Barrage was facing a far greater water flow than it was intended to accommodate. Early in the day on August 9, the recorded water flow through was up to 1.4 million cubic feet per second (cusecs), and the barrage is only designed to withstand a maximum of 900,000 cusecs, the BBC said. David Petley of Durham University produced a graph of water flow at Sukkur from late July through early August 2010. Although not showing water levels as high as 1.4 million cusecs, Petley’s graph indicated a rise in the water flow rate beginning August 4, and water flow remaining above 1 million cusecs through August 11.
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